Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

[politicus]

Question for the Danish posters:

How conservative is she really ? And is she actually running on an electable list spot

Nikita Klæstrup

She's the leader of Conservative Youth on Lolland-Falster (think of it as a left wing version of Vorpommern).

Thanks.

But is she running in the upcoming Parliamentary Election too, or is she just a local leader ?

She is Deputy Leader of Conservative Youth down there and no she is not running for anything national. Her boyfriend political consultant Rune Kristensen (32) who was Conservative Youth chairman to 2010 is their candidate in Guldborgsund, which is the wealthier (or rather less decrepit) part of the islands. He might actually have a chance and is also standing in one more constituency. So here is what you are up against:

[Tender Branson]

I was just asking, because if elected she would have been one of the hottest MPs anywhere for sure.

[Jens]

I was just asking, because if elected she would have been one of the hottest MPs anywhere for sure.

As the other Danes said. She isn't running for parliament, yet. She is studying retoric at the University of Copenhagen. I've met her a few times and she is quite nice, eventhough we don't agree on much politically

[politicus]

Headline: "Tighter asylum rules and more requirements for immigrants". Part of a series called "Social Democrats - the Denmark you know"

In an attempt to regain enough voters from DPP to remain in office the Danish SDs are now trying to be tougher than the Liberals on immigration/refugees. And - more remarkably - the Social Liberals (once the most "soft" and humanitarian party) are silently accepting it.

SD intends to make a historic tightening of the already tight asylum regulations, which the government took over after VKO era and underlines it is "the first time in 12 years that it happens."

The Social Democrats began to move to the right on immigration matters long before Helle Thorning-Schmidt became chairman, but the shift to the right has accelerated dramatically under her leadership.

Since 2011 the government has however, often on behest of the Social Liberals, implemented a number of concessions on immigration matters such as removal of the ultra low so-called starting aid and abolition of fees for family reunification. But apparently HTS has twisted the arms of the Social Liberal leadership and are going rightwards.

In response to the flood of refugees from Syria, the government has proposed a tightening of asylum rules so people who have fled the civil war "or similar situations" only gets one-year temporary residence, before their case will be reviewed. This tightening is combined with a change of the rules on family reunification, which means that asylum seekers can not get their spouse and children to the country within the first year. Especially this part of the package is controversial. There is obviously a risk that family members of asylum seekers who have been granted residence in Denmark, sits back in, for example, Syria and facing attack or losing their lives, within this year, which they in turn can not be allowed to come to Denmark. The Institute for Human Rights has in unusually clear terms stated that Denmark risk a judgment by the European Court of Human Rights for violation of the European Convention on Human Rights - which is consistent with the assessment from several independent university experts.

Against this the non-DPP opposition parties have proposed softening the government propossal by mposing an exception for 'any person who has an exceptional need for protection in the form of quick family reunification'. Particularly noteworthy is the fact that this majority besides the left wing consists of Liberals, Conservatives and Liberal Alliance. So the three bourgeois parties are softer on immigration than the government! (at least on this issue).

This is the first tightening of asylum Danish rules that have not been tightened since 2002, despite constant pressure from DPP on the Liberal-Conservative government. It was always a priority for the Lberals and Conservatives that Danish refugee policy, while tough, remained within the international conventions, but it looks like HTS is willing to take a chance on that.

Such a response to the humanitarian catastrophe in Syria would have been utterly unheard of for the Social Democrats just a few years ago, and Radikale would never have gone along with it.

Reactions:

The Red Greens and Secretary General of the Red Cross Anders Ladekarl criticizes the Social Democrats for abandoning the historically high number of refugees in the world

Normally super humanitarian and refugee friendly Radikale and SPP are conspicuously silent, but SPP did support the softer rules for reunification.

The bourgeois parties accuse Helle Thorning-Schmidt of trying to make a lax immigration policy look like the contrary.

Danish People's Party's immigration spokesman Martin Henriksen told conservative daily Berlingske that he first thought that the campaign was 'good humor', but then figured it was a bit much because the government has pursued a "lax" immigration policy so far.

The Social Democrats have responded that they really stand for a tight and firm immigration policy, and it has developed into a veritable battle of who can rightly be said to be the "tough dogs", as we say in Danish, on immigration matters.

[Diouf]

Norstat for Altinget has made a poll of which party people would vote for if they could not vote for their preferred party.



The Liberals are, perhaps unsurprisingly, the most common second choice ahead of the DPP and the SPP. The Liberals have dropped quite significantly in recent months, but many of those fleeing voters could probably still see them as the second choice.

I find it a bit suprising that so many of the Social Liberal voters would pick a blue bloc party as their second choice. They of course share many ideas about the economic policies with those parties, but would have expected more to choose another left wing party due to similar views on immigration, law and order etc. One partial explanation is perhaps that these kind of voters make up most of the around 2% which have already left the Social Liberals in recent months.

Also slightly suprising that not more of Liberal Alliance and Conservative voters have each other as the second choice due to their shared ambitions of reducing (top) taxes and public spending. There does seem to be some kind of tribalism and dislike towards each other among the two parties as they fight for relatively similar causes, but the main reason is probably that their voters are relatively different. Liberal Alliance voters are younger, more business school, nouveau riche and protest-like, while Conservative voters tend to be older, cultured and more focused on stability.

The chart also shows the cordial relations between the Liberals and the DPP; around 40% of both parties' voters see each other as the best alternative. This suggests that large parts of both parties wouldn't mind being in a government together. It will probably not happen, at least not immediately after a "blue bloc" election win. A referendum on turning the Danish opt-out on justice and home affairs into an opt-in will be held before the second quarter of 2016; here the parties will be campaigning for different outcomes. That would probably be to big a strain on a government, especially considering the ferociousness with which the DPP likes to attack in EU questions. Even without the referendum, questions of EU and the willingness to accept international conventions would be difficult to agree on.

[politicus]

While it is a very small sample and perhaps unreliable the Christian Democrats numbers are interesting:

Red Greens, SD and Social Liberals 0% (damn atheists!)
SPP (= the vicar party) 24% (environmentalism, humanitarian refugee policy, folk high school vibe)
Conservatives 7% (cultural values)
Liberals 27% (rural and small town Jutlanders)
DPP 27% (traditionalism, no to government interference in church matters + a dash of homophobia)
Liberal Alliance 0% (vulgar materialists!)
The Alternative 0% (new age vibe)
Dunno 14% (nobody else really loves Jesus)

[politicus]

The Alternative wants a 30 hour work week without wage compensation and implemented over 10 years. They claim it will prevent stress and unemployment + lead to a less consumerist lifestyle for the middle class.

Polls show 50% of working Danes feel stressed and the Alternative says increased part time work is not the solution since it leads to gender inequality as women will work less than men due to traditional gender roles.

A hard sell  - especially to people with low incomes - but this is at least something different than the usual leftist "less work, same pay" nonsense.

They need some proposals on cheaper housing - especially in the cities - to make this appealing.

[politicus]

YouGov poll from 23/3 has the Alternative above the threshold (second one to show that) and DPP as the biggest party - contrary to recent trend. Might be an outlier.

Red Bloc 78/Blue Bloc 97:

A    Socialdemokraterne    19.8    35
B    Radikale Venstre    6.7    12
C    Konservative Folkeparti    5.0    9
F    Socialistisk Folkeparti    5.4    10
I    Liberal Alliance    6.5    11
K    Kristendemokraterne    0.8    0
O    Dansk Folkeparti    22.4    39
V    Venstre    21.5    38
Ø    Enhedslisten    9.5    17
Å    Alternativet    2.5    4

[politicus]

Looks like the YouGov was an outlier. DPP back substantially below the two big ones in the last two polls. The Alternative just below the threshold in both:

Megafon 25/3

A    Socialdemokraterne    22.6    
B    Radikale Venstre    7.9    
C    Konservative Folkeparti    4.4    
F    Socialistisk Folkeparti    5.4    
I    Liberal Alliance    5.3    
K    Kristendemokraterne    0.9    
O    Dansk Folkeparti    19.1    
V    Venstre    24.2    
Ø    Enhedslisten    7.9    
Å    Alternativet    1.8
-    Others    0.5        

 
Epinion  23/3

A    Socialdemokraterne    23.9    43
B    Radikale Venstre    6.7    12
C    Konservative Folkeparti    5.0    9
F    Socialistisk Folkeparti    6.8    12
I    Liberal Alliance    5.5    10
K    KD                   0.5    0
O    Dansk Folkeparti    18.7    33
V    Venstre           22.3    40
Ø    Enhedslisten    8.7    16
Å    Alternativet    1.8    0
-    Others    0.1    0

[politicus]

Contrary to the polls prior to the launch of the immigration campaign a new Green poll has Red Bloc above 48%, best in a long time.

Red Bloc 48,2%
Blue Bloc 51,7%

SD up from 20,9 to 24,4% in a month and they do seem to take some votes from DPP that is on 17,2, down from 21,7% a month ago (hard to tell when the Liberals advance as well, but it seems like it).

Liberals on 23,3, up from 21,4. Social Liberals at a mere 5,9, down from 7,9.

The Alternative on 2,6%.

Two or three more polls on this level and HTS will likely call the election.

[politicus]

Some political journos with good SD sources claim that 47% is the breaking point decided by the leadership, so a string of 47%+ polls should mean the election is on.

Historically SD always calcualted with the ability to gain minimum 2% in a campaign, but that was with much better relations to the trade unions than currently. But this time they may accept a lower starting point to avoid having to campaign in a worse scenario.

Still, any poll with Red Bloc above 47% is interesting.

[politicus]

Another post-immigration campaign poll from Voxmeter also has Red Bloc above 48%, but the Alternative below 2%.

So depending on how you count we have two polls above "target". I think the SD top will most likely count on enough centre-left voters to vote tactically for the Alliance and carry them in if the Alternative is at 1.5% or higher.

A    Socialdemokraterne    23.4    42
B    Radikale Venstre    7.3    13
C    Konservative Folkeparti    4.6    8
F    Socialistisk Folkeparti    7.2    13
I    Liberal Alliance    5.0    9
K    Kristendemokraterne    0.3    0
O    Dansk Folkeparti    17.7    32
V    Venstre    23.8    43
Ø    Enhedslisten    8.7    15
Å    Alternativet    1.5    0
-    Others    0.5    0

Red Bloc 48,1%
Blue Bloc 51,4%

The Green poll was:

A    Socialdemokraterne    24.4    
B    Radikale Venstre    5.9    
C    Konservative Folkeparti    4.0    
F    Socialistisk Folkeparti    7.0    
I    Liberal Alliance    6.5    
K    Kristendemokraterne    0.7    
O    Dansk Folkeparti    17.2    
V    Venstre    23.3    
Ø    Enhedslisten    8.3    
Å    Alternativet    2.6
-    Others    0.1

Red Bloc 48,2%
Blue Bloc 51,7%

[politicus]

Given that the Christian Democrats wont make it and the Alternative will likely get in on tactical votes the actual difference between the blocs is about 3% in those two polls.

Voxmeter:

3%
51,1 vs. 48,1

Green:

2,8%
51,0 vs. 48,2

[politicus]

Conservative spokesperson Mai Mercado has written an essay in daily Berlingske entitled "Why Christianity is better than Islam" where she states:

- "Christianity is superior to Islam. We have lived with it, developed it and lived in accordance to it, and therefore it has also shaped us. Christianity is better suited to Denmark than other religions."

She propose that Christianity becomes a mandatory subject in public schools (and gets an extra lesson a week). At the moment atheists and religious minorities can opt out of classes in Knowledge of Christianit despite it being a non-professing general knowledge subject (and about half the time spend on other religions and philosopical world views in the two senior years). She also states that Denmark has freedom of religion, but not equality of religion (which is constitutionally true, but unpopular on the left). Only 1% of pupils did not follow the tuition in Christian Knowledge by the last count in 2005 (and nothing indicates this has increased substantially), so we are talking pure symbolism here.

The Conservatives basically dumped God from the "God, King and Country" trinity in the 60s, so this is a new tune (or an old one replayed), but Mercado has a partly Spanish Catholic background, so she may see those things differently. Still, obviously coordinated with party leader Søren Pape, who is from rural Jutland and personally Christian.

DPP voters are among the least religious, so this is hardly a go at attracting that segment, despite what one might think (and DPP voters generally hate the Conservatives as both elitist and softies). More an appeal to people who are general cultural conservatives, but not attracted to their economy centrered (or rather tax fixated) profile.

The Social Liberals are up in arms about it, SD so far quiet. The centre-left would prefer Knowledge of Christianity replaced with a general Religion and Outlook on Life (ghastly title.. a bit better in Danish) subject.

[politicus]

Gender based poll from March 8:

Male/Female

Liberal Alliance 7,6/3,5
Conservatives 6,3/4,4
DPP 22,5/18,4
Liberals 23,5/22,6
-----------------
Social Liberals 7,0/7,6
Red Greens  8,4/10,4
SocDem 17,7/24,1
SPP 5,3/7,7

The Danish gender gap has been increasing steadily since 1981 (3% back then) and was 11% last time -14% in some recent polls.

Governments post-1990 with male/female voters only:


Men only:

Liberal etc. 1990-1993
SD etc. 1993-1998
Liberal etc. 1998-2015


Women only:

SD etc. 1990-2001
Liberal etc. 2001-2007
SD etc. 2007-2015


IRL:

Centre-right 1990-1993
SD etc. 1993-2001
Liberal etc. 2001-2011
SD etc. 2011-2015

[politicus]

SD has launched one more big campaign - "Denmark is moving forward" - this time boasting about the good economy and targeting the Liberals and the "threat to welfare" that their zero increase in public spending policy (regardless of BNP growth) might cause. Using a "you know what you got, but not what you get" argumentation. So trying to get soft centre-right voters back - mainly women.





Political analysts estimate that SD can not afford any more big pre-election campaigns, so the fourth one will be when the election is called, and whether or not HTS officially call the election the campaign is de facto on after Easter as the Liberals will launch counter -campaigns.

There also seems to be no point in blowing off that kind of money and then wait to after the summer holidays, so a spring/early June election seems certain now.

After several big unions cutting support SD can expect to be massively outspent by the Liberals and putting in that kind of cash to get a head start and set the agenda is an interesting - and risky - strategy. It was expected that SD would want a long 6 week campaign to change the narrative, but they may have decided to split it into an unofficial pre-campaign and a short three week official one.

April 16 is the Queens 75th birthday and calling an election before that would backfire. HTS also has her own 10 year leadership jubilee on April 12, the 70 year jubilee for the liberation of Denmark on May 5 and Constitution Day on June 5 (which also marks the centenary for female suffrage) to consider (lots of free PR) and may wait to June 9th - first Tuesday after the national day. With the Copenhagen shootings in mind a rally around the flag effect after the national day would seem an obvious solution, but it does provide for a long - and costly - campaign. May 1 generally generates bad PR for SD with HTS being shouted out in Fælledparken and possible confrontations with far left protesters, so early or mid May seems risky.

[politicus]

Blue Bloc has presented a joint proposal of lowering the age of criminal responsibility from 15 to 12 and introducing Child and Youth Courts. Reported crime among 10-14 year olds has fallen 66% since 2006 and is currently at a record low, so this seems like pure "symbol politics". The previous government lowered the age of criminal responsibility to 14 and back then everone in the criminal justice system  thought it was a bad idea and wasted resources to prosecute 14 year olds. The current government reversed the decision and went back to 15 in 2011.

Liberal Alliance continue their rightwards march on social issues.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Blue Bloc has presented a joint proposal of lowering the age of criminal responsibility from 15 to 12 and introducing Child and Youth Courts.

*Throws up a bit in my mouth*

Denmark why do you do this to me? I like you Denmark! Why do all your parties have to be either  socialists, annoying feel-good hipsters or wanna-be Texas Republicans? (I count Helle and her followers as wanna-be Republicans) 

[politicus]

Blue Bloc has presented a joint proposal of lowering the age of criminal responsibility from 15 to 12 and introducing Child and Youth Courts.

*Throws up a bit in my mouth*

Denmark why do you do this to me? I like you Denmark! Why do all your parties have to be either  socialists, annoying feel-good hipsters or wanna-be Texas Republicans? (I count Helle and her followers as wanna-be Republicans) 

Well, Mr. Hyperbole Texas Republicans are hardly the inspiration for anyone here. Ron Paul is the only Texan that ever inspired any Danish politicians and only the radical wing of Liberal Alliance.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Blue Bloc has presented a joint proposal of lowering the age of criminal responsibility from 15 to 12 and introducing Child and Youth Courts.

*Throws up a bit in my mouth*

Denmark why do you do this to me? I like you Denmark! Why do all your parties have to be either  socialists, annoying feel-good hipsters or wanna-be Texas Republicans? (I count Helle and her followers as wanna-be Republicans) 

Well, Mr. Hyperbole Texas Republicans are hardly the inspiration for anyone here. Ron Paul is the only Texan that ever inspired any Danish politicians and only the radical wing of Liberal Alliance.

Whether they're inspired by them or not is besides the point. Lowering the age of criminal responsibility is exactly the sort  of populist, unscientific, and reactionary social conservatism I'd expect from Texas Republicans, not from supposedly liberal European parties like Venstre and LA, or for that sake, Social Democratic parties.

And if that's hyperboling according to you, I'll hyberbole with pride.

[politicus]

First post-Easter poll from Voxmeter has Red Bloc on 48,5% and Blue Bloc on 51,3% (51,0% without the Christian Democrats). Third poll above the presumed government "target" on 47-48%. Seat distribution is 84-91, but 86-89 if the Alternative made it, which would be 89-90 with the usual (and almost unavoidable) 3-1 distribution of the North Atlantic seats. So extremely close.

Red Greens 8,0
SPP 7,6
SD 24,1
Social Liberals 7,1
Alternative 1,7
------------------
Christian Democrats 0,3
Liberals 24,5
DPP 17,1
Conservatives 3,8
Liberal Alliance 5,6

[Diouf]

Polling average for March by professor Søren Risbjerg Thomsen for Altinget.dk

A    Socialdemokraterne    23.2    42
B    Radikale Venstre    6.9    12
C    Konservative Folkeparti    5.0    9
F    Socialistisk Folkeparti    6.7    12
I    Liberal Alliance    5.8    10
K    Kristendemokraterne    0.6    0
O    Dansk Folkeparti    19.2    35
V    Venstre    22.1   40
Ø    Enhedslisten    8.3    15
Å    Alternativet    1.8    0
-    Others    0.5        


Norstat poll for Altinget.dk

Which policy areas have the most influence for how you will vote? (You can pick up to three areas)

Immigration and refugees: 45 %
Labour market: 38 %
Health: 34 %
Social policy: 30 %
Economic policy: 28 %
Taxation: 23 %
Environment: 14 %
Energy and Climate: 14 %
EU: 9 %
Law and order: 8 %
Transport policies: 5 %
Defence: 4 %
Food policies: 4 %
Housing: 4 %
Foreign policy: 3 %
Cultural policies: 2 %
None of the above: 4 %

Some of the categories might be a big vague, but labour market will probably mainly be understood as unemployment and wage levels. Especially the former as there is no state minimum wage; it is decided in negotiations between employer organisations and trade unions. Social policies I would understand as the efforts to help very vulnerable persons like homeless people, but unemployment benefits will probably also be in that category since there is no other category where it seems to belong. Perhaps it could be understood to be in the labour market category as well. Normally, I believe it's a category on its own. Economic policy would mainly be the budget deficit.

[politicus]

The polling average is of questionable value because there so clearly is a before and after the two latest SD campaigns.

Regarding the priority survey:

Immigration has gone up and environment down compared to Krakas analysis of the 2012-14 development and I agree that labour market is a vague "trash bin-category" for various things. Kraka had unemployment as a separate category with high numbers despite relatively low unemployment figures. It always scores high if our numbers are above 2% Danes worry whenever there is anything else than full employment.

Immigration is also a questionable category - does it measure unease at Syrian refugees because of our bad experience with integrating Palestinians and Iraqis, Eastern European labour migration competing with unskilled/low skilled workers or just integration and parallel communities in general after the shootings. Likely a mix, but a separate integration category would be good. In reality it is three areas: labour migration, refugees and integration.

[politicus]

Kraka survey of "the two most important political challenges"

2012:

Unemployment 61%
Economic situation 58%
Immigration 9%
Environmental protection 12%

2014:

Unemployment 35%
Economic situation 18%
Immigration 34%
Environmental protection 28%

I only got selected numbers, but they show the move from economy to value issues.

http://www.information.dk/529209

[Zanas]

Ah, I see even Denmark falls into the "males are reffered to by their last name - females by their first name" patronizing category of countries like Brazil in their Presidential race recently. Good to know.