Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

[politicus]

In a two way race between HTS and Lars Løkke Rasmussen  the Wilke poll from March on preferred PM has:

Helle Thorning-Schmidt 42,7
Lars Løkke Rasmussen 29,6
Dunno 27,7

So a solid lead. In November her lead was only about 5%. Still a lot of people would prefer a third choice.

http://jyllands-posten.dk/politik/ECE7539793/Thorning-Schmidt-fordobler-forspringet-til-Lars-L%C3%B8kke/

Around 20% of voters are in doubt, but 2/3 know which bloc they are going with and a Voxmeter poll from March gives an even distribution among doubters with only one in ten considering both.

Blue bloc: 33,5%
Red bloc: 31,8%
Consider both: 9,6%
Dunno: 25,1%

http://jyllands-posten.dk/politik/ECE7607638/Mange-politiske-tvivlere-har-allerede-valgt-side/

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Surely, if Lars Lökke Rasmussen fails to win this time, he'll be gone for real as Venstre leader? Who would be the favoured candidates to succeed him as leader?     

[politicus]

Surely, if Lars Lökke Rasmussen fails to win this time, he'll be gone for real as Venstre leader? Who would be the favoured candidates to succeed him as leader?    

Hard to say. Venstre generally always promotes their second in command, but Deputy Chairman Kristian Jensen is considered too uninspiring and dull by many and it is no secret that he doesn't like the DPP and is much more liberal on immigration/integration than the current party line. The trouble is there is something wrong with most of the other candidates:

Former Climate and Energy Minister Lykke Friis, who has the charisma and intelligence, has opted out of politics and became Deputy Principal  at the University of Copenhagen; folksy and affable Søren Gade is out of politics as well + he was damaged by several minor scandals while Minister of Defence. He may stage a comeback though, definitely "the people's choice".

Former Minister of Development and Integration Søren Pind is a close Løkke ally (and looks like a likely foreign minister if they win), but may be a little too "weird" and unpredictable. Former political spokesperson Ellen Trane Nørby discredited herself by helping a local museum where her mother was on the board. Her star seems fading.

Their finance guy Peter Christensen has been labeled as "a young Fogh" by many, but is off-putting to moderate female voters (like Fogh) and I doubt "the bald electrician" will get the top job - as unfair as it is being ugly is often a disqualifier in modern politics.

If the right wing wants a hardliner they could try to run political spokesperson Inger Støjberg against Jensen, but that would really alienate the more liberal part of the party.

Most likely a few years with a weak Jensen leadership with right wingers undermining him from the start and then someone else when he gives up - whoever unites the bulk of the party.

They have a lot of good people in local politics and one of them may rise fast if elected to the Folketing this time.

Venstre is hard to predict, because they do not have organized factions or wings in the same way as other big parties, but still has substantial and crosscutting internal differences (Jutland vs. Copenhagen, hardliners vs. liberals, fiscal right wing vs. centrists, local politicians vs. fast track academics etc.). They generally always try to avoid open conflict (unlike the Conservatives), which is one of their core strengths.

tl;dr: I don't know

[politicus]

The official party line is: "The Deputy Chairman of Venstre is always the party's chairmanship candidate in case the Chairman resigns".

But obviously anyone with sufficient support can run as an opponent. Their last competitive election was back in 1984. A typical urban modernisers vs. rural traditionalists, which the modernisers won. Jensens core support would be: Traditionalists (Grundtvigian Christianity, rural roots, folk high schools and party democracy), liberals and Western Jutlanders (who are mainly traditionalists, but not entirely). If Gade runs non-traditional Western Jutlanders will be gone.

Jensen has a very clear profile: Hails from Western Jutland (the cradle of the party), son of two free school teachers (exam free schools based on narrative teaching in Grundtvigian tradition), educated in the local bank, personal Christian, does gymnastics (a rural thing in DK), stable marriage, wife is scouting-instructor etc. etc. He is as square as they come. Which is both a strength and a weakness.

The modern party is mainly based on suburban voters, pragmatic (some would say unprincipled..), mostly conservative on non-economic issues, run by academics with economics or law degrees and don't give a crap about Christian ethics).

Another problem for him is that Venstre is a party that prefers strong leadership. Venstre chairmen have traditonally been called chieftains, with all that entails.

[Lurker]

What are the chances of the election being held before the summer holidays?

Shouldn't Helle call an election ASAP, before she possibly loses the momentum?

[politicus]

What are the chances of the election being held before the summer holidays?

Very high (IMO 90%+). SD has used a big chunk of their campaign budget and calling a September election after proposing a joint government budget would be a gamble.

Shouldn't Helle call an election ASAP, before she possibly loses the momentum?

Maybe, but they are still gaining and may gain even more with the economy being fine.

And the problem is how to handle the unusual number of jubilees and celebrations.

She will need to wait to after the Queens 75th birthday on April 16. Then you got May 1, which normally gives bad publicity for SD (opportunity for left wingers/anarchists to protest) and May 5, marks the 75th anniversary for the liberation. Constitution Day on June 5 marks the centenary for female suffrage. Constitution Day would work for the "defend our freedom"-theme, which would be logical after the Copenhagen shootings and the centenary/first female PM combo would provide for a powerful narrative as well. Former Conservative chairman and present political pundit Hans Engell thinks June 9 (first Tuesday after the centenary) is the most likely date. I tend to agree, but it gives a long and costly campaign. If the polls goes even higher (50%+) she may call it earlier.

[ingemann]

What are the chances of the election being held before the summer holidays?

Answering that would be pure guess work, but if HTS doesn't call for the next month, it's going to be after the summer.

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There's pros and cons. The primary pro is the momerntum

But the economy is improving, Venstre suffer from a very chaotic campaign and the personal unpopularity of LLR and the longer the voters get to focus on that, improve the position of HTS. Personal I would wait to september.

[ingemann]

Their finance guy Peter Christensen has been labeled as "a young Fogh" by many, but is off-putting to moderate female voters (like Fogh) and I doubt "the bald electrician" will get the top job - as unfair as it is being ugly is often a disqualifier in modern politics.

Lots of things are unfair in politics. But he would not be the first ugly man in politics (Mogens Glistrup, who looked like something a cat had vomited up). But when we mix a unpleasant and anonyme personality with a voice and a face which give him the nickname "the Pig" and the political views of an Venstre apparatnik, you're not going become leader of a major party ever.

[politicus]

Their finance guy Peter Christensen has been labeled as "a young Fogh" by many, but is off-putting to moderate female voters (like Fogh) and I doubt "the bald electrician" will get the top job - as unfair as it is being ugly is often a disqualifier in modern politics.

Lots of things are unfair in politics. But he would not be the first ugly man in politics (Mogens Glistrup, who looked like something a cat had vomited up). But when we mix a unpleasant and anonyme personality with a voice and a face which give him the nickname "the Pig" and the political views of an Venstre apparatnik, you're not going become leader of a major party ever.

Glistrup had an unsual charisma, excellent verbal skills and a powerful message + it was back in another era.

Looks prevented highly qualified Henning Christophersen from ever getting the chairmanship of Venstre becoming PM - and Peter Christensen is nowhere near Christophesen-level in intelligence and political capability.

Otherwise I agree.

[politicus]

Regarding the election date it should be noted that HTS has a "Jutland-problem". SD is gaining in the capital region, but not enough in Jutland, where she is also perceived less favourably. Patriotism, defence of freedom & democratic values and a "rally around the flag" effect would play well in Jutland, which is one more reasons for using either May 5 or June 5 as a ramp to lift support. Politicizing May 5 is more risky than June 5, which is by definition a political day and where she would get massive positive coverage due to the centenary.

@Ingemann: Wouldn't the effect of the three big campaigns fizzle out if you wait until September? It seems like a waste of scarce resources in a context where Blue Bloc can massively outspend SD.

[Diouf]

One of the local Liberal candidates which are rising to the national level at this election is 44-year old Carl Holst. He is currently the Chairman of the Region of Southern Denmark, and before the regions were created, he had been the County Mayor of South Jutland since 2000. He was a leader of the Liberal Youth from 1993 to 1995, and a county councillor since 1993.
He is the candidate who is most certain to be elected MP of all those running as he runs in the multi-member constituency with the most Liberal seats, Southern Jutland, and he will be the most popular Liberal candidate there. In the 2013 regional elections he received 94 197 personal votes out of the 686 956 votes cast in the region.
Holst grew up on a folk high scool where his dad was a teacher, when the dad was not focusing on his roles as mayor and MP. Carl and his wife are both teachers as well, so he certainly got a huge base in the folksy, rural Grundtvig part of the Liberals. However, he is also a good friend of Løkke, and was loyal to him during the leadership battle. He knows Peter Christensen very well from their time together in the Liberal Youth in Southern Jutland, and is credited with "inventing" Peter Christensen as a real politician.
Perhaps, he could be a kind of compromise candidate which could be accepted by most camps. He might not be personally popular among Kristian Jensen and his supporters, but I think enough of them would accept him as his idelogical background is rather similar to e.g. Kristian Jensen.

[Diouf]

Glistrup had an unsual charisma, excellent verbal skills and a powerful message + it was back in another era.

Looks prevented highly qualified Henning Christophersen from ever getting the chairmanship of Venstre - and Peter Christensen is nowhere near Christophesen-level in intelligence and political capability.

Otherwise I agree.

Do you mean from becoming PM? He was the leader of Venstre from 1977 to 1984.

[politicus]

Glistrup had an unsual charisma, excellent verbal skills and a powerful message + it was back in another era.

Looks prevented highly qualified Henning Christophersen from ever getting the chairmanship of Venstre - and Peter Christensen is nowhere near Christophesen-level in intelligence and political capability.

Otherwise I agree.

Do you mean from becoming PM? He was the leader of Venstre from 1977 to 1984.

Yes, sorry - brainfart. His appearance and nickname as "the Pig" played a role in 1982 (Danes are very unimaginative when it comes to nicknaming chubby guys..). A bad relationship to "madman"   Glistrup was a big factor as well, but it is hard to get around that looks played a part.

[politicus]

One of the local Liberal candidates which are rising to the national level at this election is 44-year old Carl Holst. He is currently the Chairman of the Region of Southern Denmark, and before the regions were created, he had been the County Mayor of South Jutland since 2000. He was a leader of the Liberal Youth from 1993 to 1995, and a county councillor since 1993.
He is the candidate who is most certain to be elected MP of all those running as he runs in the multi-member constituency with the most Liberal seats, Southern Jutland, and he will be the most popular Liberal candidate there. In the 2013 regional elections he received 94 197 personal votes out of the 686 956 votes cast in the region.
Holst grew up on a folk high scool where his dad was a teacher, when the dad was not focusing as his roles as mayor and MP. Carl and his wife are both teachers as well, so he certainly got a huge base in the folksy, rural Grundtvig part of the Liberals. However, he is also a good friend of Løkke, and was loyal to him during the leadership battle. He knows Peter Christensen very well from their time together in the Liberal Youth in Southern Jutland, and is credited with "inventing" Peter Christensen as a real politician.
Perhaps, he could be a kind of compromise candidate which could be accepted by most camps. He might not be personally popular among Kristian Jensen and his supporters, but I think enough of them would accept him as his idelogical background is rather similar to e.g. Kristian Jensen.

Holst would be the most obvious outsider choice. He is well qualified, likeable and has the right age, and I think he would work better than any of their current MPs. The Liberal consensus culture is strong and I think they would try hard to avoid something divisive as fx a Jensen vs. Støjberg match-up.

[politicus]

Gallup poll from April 9:

Red Bloc 48,2 (incl 1,6 for the Alternative - I still assume tactical votes will carry them)
Blue Bloc 50,8 (51,8 if the Christian Democrats are included)

The Alternative still just below the threshold (they have only been above in two polls). DPP has gained a bit again. Really bad for SPP after a string of decent polls. SD just 0,6% below the 2011 result.

Altenative 1,6
Red Greens 9,3
SPP 5,5
SocDem 24,2
SocLib 7,6

Conservatives 4,9
Liberals 20,7
Liberal Alliance 5,0
DPP 20,2

Christian Democrats 1,0

Seat distribution 91-84, so 89-86 with the Alternative in and 4 red seats in the North Atlantic at the moment, so a paper thin 90-89 Red Bloc lead if the Alternative makes it, otherwise 88-91 and a narrow Blue Bloc win.

[ingemann]

@Ingemann: Wouldn't the effect of the three big campaigns fizzle out if you wait until September? It seems like a waste of scarce resources in a context where Blue Bloc can massively outspend SD.

First I think the SocDem have more money than people usual expect. While the Unions are somewhat pissed on the government, the Right scares them and as for big business they're not unhappy with government, and LLR & co are not really beloved by them. Also the Left have also been able to deliver more bang for the bucks in election. That's purely the whole resources aspect.

Then we have the fact that Venstre look more like they will run out of political gas before the government. LLR are slightly more popular than malaria, and he's hurting his party, Venstre also run around without a clear message and the longer they try to avoid telling what they want, that the more ridiculous they will look. Behind the scenes the Conservatives are in a complete collapse in infighting and I think (and this may be ridiculous) that Conservatives risk getting under 2% if the stories about their infighting spread from BT to other medias. By waiting the Alternative may also if it's build out of sticks instead of bricks collapse before rather than under the election (I hope they survives). At last by waiting HTS will gain from the improvement in the economy.

At last there's the legacy aspect. If HTS lose, it's better that she lose when we are clearly out of the crisis. If Venstre also have been forced to make promises for tax cuts, it's even better, because in 2016 the government will have to do something to stop the economy from overheating. So Venstre will either do that, or they will let the economy overheat. The first will give LLR the same reputation for breaking his promises. The latter will show Venstre to be a deeply irresponsable again.

Of course she risk that LLR will pull some kind of rabbit out before the election, but that's always a risk.

[ingemann]

One of the local Liberal candidates which are rising to the national level at this election is 44-year old Carl Holst. He is currently the Chairman of the Region of Southern Denmark, and before the regions were created, he had been the County Mayor of South Jutland since 2000. He was a leader of the Liberal Youth from 1993 to 1995, and a county councillor since 1993.
He is the candidate who is most certain to be elected MP of all those running as he runs in the multi-member constituency with the most Liberal seats, Southern Jutland, and he will be the most popular Liberal candidate there. In the 2013 regional elections he received 94 197 personal votes out of the 686 956 votes cast in the region.
Holst grew up on a folk high scool where his dad was a teacher, when the dad was not focusing on his roles as mayor and MP. Carl and his wife are both teachers as well, so he certainly got a huge base in the folksy, rural Grundtvig part of the Liberals. However, he is also a good friend of Løkke, and was loyal to him during the leadership battle. He knows Peter Christensen very well from their time together in the Liberal Youth in Southern Jutland, and is credited with "inventing" Peter Christensen as a real politician.
Perhaps, he could be a kind of compromise candidate which could be accepted by most camps. He might not be personally popular among Kristian Jensen and his supporters, but I think enough of them would accept him as his idelogical background is rather similar to e.g. Kristian Jensen.

He's a incredible good candidate on paper at least, he's strong where his party is weak and the Left strong (health, public service etc.). He's highly respected by everyone including the Left. He also deliver on growth. His only problem is his lack of experience on Christiansborg. But that was shared by Nyrup, who was one of the greatest Danish PMs.

[politicus]

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If unions have decided not to support SD on their Congress they can not suddenly start doing it anyway.

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This seems far fetched, the SD Business Club will get some contributions, but corporate Denmark will not suddenly start giving big bucks to SD (and if they did, that would become a separate issue during the campaign and could backfire).

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True, but it still doesn't explain away that the effect of the spring campaigns will fizzle out during the non-political summer.

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1) Løkke is still the preferred PM for 30% of voters, and he is not toxic in all circles. Some people will always respect him for his detailed knowledge of how Denmark and the public sector actually work - he is the ultimate machine-room politician and that inspire confidence in some folks. He is unlikely to go much lower in support.

2) More importantly: At some point the Liberals will likely pull their act together and fix their strategy. Relying on your opponents to screw up forever is much too risky. It is better to use their current weakness.

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Not likely, if they get that low some other centre-right voters will start voting tactically and save them. Otherwise it doesn't matter what happens to the Conservatives. Their voters will stay in Blue Bloc.

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The Alternative attracts a small, but potentially important number of centre-right voters, it is not an advantage if they disappear (at least not pre-election - they may cause trouble later on).

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1) Seems true, but the economy can always be affected by some unforeseen factor. An improved economy is very likely, but not a certainty. Relying on it is putting all your eggs in one basket.

2) You lose the national jubilee/celebration effect if you wait + you put more distance to the shootings, which is not good. HTS gained in support due to the way she handled that situation and she is perceived as the better leader. She will gain from the "celebration streak" if she uses it wisely. A strong economy is the foundation for winning the election, but not everyone votes based on economy. Better economy + national cohesion/pride is a strong combo for a PM.

Not everyone is a cynical Copenhagener, there is another Denmark where people drive around with "Support our soldiers" on the back of their cars and care about national cohesion and patriotism.

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Why care about that now, when they have a chance to win? I really doubt that will be a factor.

The fact that the campaign has already started from both sides is what convinces me this is going to be a pre-summer election. We have no tradition for half year campaigns (it started a month ago) and I doubt this will change, there simply isn't enough money in Danish politics for that.

[politicus]

Digital signature registration for parties attempting to get ballot access will (finally) be implemented from April 22, cutting costs for ballot access to a fraction of what they are now.

If the election is called after the summer holidays this should give the three best organized micro-parties a chance to get on the ballot: Nationalpartiet and Danish Unity have been mentioned earlier in thread (Danish Unity in the OP). The third one is a relaunching of the 96 year old Justice Party, the Danish wing of the Georgist movement. Ironically their logo and communication profile was redesigned by some communication students looking for an organization with a hopelessly dated brand for an exam project - they found one , which resulted in one of the ugliest logos and colour schemes any Danish party has ever had:



The Justice Party plans to run independent candidates on a common platform if they do no make it. A gradual introduction of the good old full land value tax, environmentally sustainable production, direct democracy and leaving the EU being their main goals.

So probably a high number of wasted votes in an autumn election.

[politicus]

Nationalpartiet has collected 25,000 signatures - 10,000 more than on Tuesday when Yahya Hassan joined them. Only 8,720 have been approved so far and the Alternatve used 45,000+ signatures to get to the required 20,260 approved ones, and the bureaucracy works slowly. Still, they are on their way and will make it if the election is postponed to September.

This could give yet another incentive for a spring election since it is hard to see two new progressive micro-parties making it and having both the Alternative and Nationalpartiet on the ballot will almost inevitably lead to wasted votes for Red Bloc - maybe even 3%+.

Nationalpartiet claims to be a centrist, pro-business Social Liberal party and is pro-EU, but it is still rather obvious that is will almost exclusively take Red Bloc votes and compete with the Alternative for part of the same segment. It will likely get some ethnic minority votes and some Social Liberal left wingers, who thinks the party has caved in on immigration, but it will be hard for them to break free from being seen as a single issue party.

The three founders being "heretical" Ahmadiyyas will hurt them among devout and orthodox Muslims, so they are likely stuck with liberal/secular Muslims and Left Liberal ethnic Danes. Small target group - and shared with the Alternative, which even has an entrepreneurship focused Pakistaini academic (who is a former Liberal parliamentary candidate) as one of their top candidates + a female Pakistani academic with a feminist profile running in Copenhagen. They claim to be able to present a full and diverse slate of candidates as soon as they are on the ballot, but so far their candidate profile lacks a bit in the diversity department.

[politicus]

Generally very positive media coverage of HTS in connection with her 10 year anniversary as party chairman  today, emphasizing the difficult economic conditions her government has had to work under etc. First of the free positive PR options.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

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This is how many people in Poland see Scandinavia AD 2015.

[Gustaf]

This has probably been discussed before, but how come the Christian Democrats are so weak in Denmark compared to other Nordic countries?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Probably because Danish one is more Christian and more radical?
Also, anyone from Denmark know how are voting Catholics in Denmark (also Sweden, Norway)? I know they are non-significant group but maybe there is some data.

[politicus]

This has probably been discussed before, but how come the Christian Democrats are so weak in Denmark compared to other Nordic countries?

Some of the answers are in my write-up in the beginning of the thread (also quoted below).

Otherwise:

1) Small Bible Belt/few Evangelicals giving them a very small base.

2) Evangelicals being unpopular in Denmark - many stereotypes associated with the main group Inner Mission (often the bad guys in fiction and popular culture).

3) Schizophrenic party: Having moderate left wing positions on most issues, but allying with the centre-right to not frighten their core supporters in the Liberal heartland = not getting much done and not being able to reach out to potential supporters in Eastern Denmark (see also the Kornbek-Videbæk feud -described in the second post in thread). Was in an SD led government 1993-94, but has otherwise refused to be the classical swing party that could support either side - making them irrelevant. Being a very small centrist party firmly anchored on the right is not a viable position.

4) Being anti-free abortion is seen as an extremist position in Denmark. Even if the party has said it is not on the practical political agenda, and that they are working to reduce abortion numbers by social policies and information etc., many potential supporters wont vote for the party because of this.

5) Danish popular Lutheran culture is split between (the remnants of) the two old laymen movements from the 19th century - Grundtvigians and Inner Mission with the former as the big one. KD is associated with Inner Mission, which has blocked any success among the free school/folk high school Grundtvigian crowd, who are either Liberals, Social Liberals or SPP. I think a culturally Christian party with Grundtvigian roots and profile would have been more successfull (even if the actual content of the Grundtvigian tradition in the modern world is hard to define). The old Grundtvigian motto "Human first and Christian then" would have been a good starting point - and fits most of the party's actual policies

tl;dr (and simplified): The liberal tradition is stronger than the conservative in modern Danish Lutheranism.

Christian Democrats founded in the 70s as a protest against free porn and legal abortion (legalized by a Conservative Minster of Justice..). Forever torn between its core supporters from pietistic Inner Mission in the "Bible Belt" in Western Jutland (even in the heart of this so called Bible Belt only 5-7% are fundis) and liberal Christian greenies in the Big Smoke. Its core constituents sees themselves as solidly centre-right despite having views on welfare, environmental issues, refugees and aid to the Third World much more in line with the left, hence demanding the party always supports a Liberal government and eliminating any chance of real influence - driving more tactically minded types to despair. Copenhagen based chairman Bodil Kornbek and West Jutlandic Tv station manager Tove Videbæk tore the party apart with un-Christian vengeance. Now its led by a Conservative renegade with a DUI conviction and permanently under the threshold (while Videbæk ended up with the Conservatives and Kornbek in the Social Democrats).

(the DUI guy has since left them and is in a Danish version of the Norwegian Senterpartiet)