Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

[Diouf]

The first poll has been made on the Faroe Islands which will elect two MPs. It looks like the two current MPs will be reelected, one blue and one red.

The full results of the polls have not been reported, as far as I can see, but the three most important parties are:
Sambandsflokkurin (cooperates with the Liberals) 26.1%
Javnaðarflokkurin (cooperates with Social Democrats) 24.6%
Tjóðveldi (socialist, separatist, republican) 20.6%

The two seats go to the two biggest parties unless the biggest party has more than twice the number of votes as the second largest party. It looks like Edmund Joensen and Sjúrður Skaale will be reelected. However, as you can see the difference is not very big, especially as the turnout is lower than at elections to the Faroese parliament, and the current Faroese centre-right government is not very popular, so two red seats are not out of the question. Tjóðveldi has said that they would prefer the Prime Minister which would give the biggest degree of independence to the Faroe Islands. However, normallt they have cooperated with the SPP and it is quite hard to imagine them supporting a centre-right government in Denmark.

In Greenland, the dominance of Siumut (Social Democrat) and Inuit Ataqatigiit (Socialist) is so big that it is extremely hard to see an outcome other than those two red parties getting a seat each. However, the leading Siumut candidate is Aleqa Hammond, who was Greenland's PM from 2013 to 2014. She had to resign after being caught in using the Treasury as her private bank. During her term she loaned 200 000 kr(£27 000), which she used for private trips to Paris and Iceland. A week ago, as the full scale of her actions was disclosed, she was reported to the police. Furthermore, she was very outspoken in terms of independence and did not have the best cooperation with Denmark. In all likelyhood, she will still be elected, but she could be a more troublesome partner than the Greenlandic MPs usually are. Perhaps that could tempt even many of the red bloc MPs to vote for her as unworthy to be an MP if she is sentenced for her use of the Treasury.
IA, like their Faroese counterpart, has said that they will not commit to one bloc, but will choose the PM which is best for Greenland's interests. Again, it is difficult to imagine a socialist and separatist party supporting a centre-right government. It seems like a way to try and push some of their demands further, for example a Minister for the Arctic

[Double Carpet]

For anyone that would like to play, the election game for Denmark is now available at:

electiongame.co.uk/denmark15/

Entries close 7pm BST Wednesday

Many thanks,

DC

[Tender Branson]

That's going to be another really close one ... I'll post my predictions later on Tue/Wed.

[politicus]

The first poll has been made on the Faroe Islands which will elect two MPs. It looks like the two current MPs will be reelected, one blue and one red.

The full results of the polls have not been reported, as far as I can see, but the three most important parties are:
Sambandsflokkurin (cooperates with the Liberals) 26.1%
Javnaðarflokkurin (cooperates with Social Democrats) 24.6%
Tjóðveldi (socialist, separatist, republican) 20.6%

English names are: Union Party, Social Democrats and Republic. The seaparatist and right wing Peoples Party is as important as them and needs to be included to make a fair assesment.
Numbers are much better for the Union Party than earlier polls this year. Perhaps nationalist centre-right voters prefering the Unionists over the left wing nationalists in Repulic at this point.

[politicus]

I'm really uncertain who I'd vote for in this election out of Radikale, Konservative, and Liberal Alliance.

Radikale is the party that is closest to me, but I do really dislike Thoring-Schmidt's government. On the other hand, the option isn't much better...  

No way you could vote Conservative in their current incarnation. LA is a tad too right wing  on a number of issues, but fits your Euroscepticism.

As much as you would hate it you might fit the Christian Democrats best..

[politicus]

For what its worth: I think the government will be reelected now (so they probably wont   )

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

As much as you would hate it you might fit the Christian Democrats best..

Don't be silly, if I had a vote I wouldn't waste it on a party that won't even break 1%

Hmm, I didn't know LA is sort of eurosceptic. How Eurosceptic are they exactly? What their opinion on the retsforbeholdet for example?

[Diouf]

As much as you would hate it you might fit the Christian Democrats best..

Don't be silly, if I had a vote I wouldn't waste it on a party that won't even break 1%

Hmm, I didn't know LA is sort of eurosceptic. How Eurosceptic are they exactly? What their opinion on the retsforbeholdet for example?

If their votes rise proportionately across the country, the Christian Democrats "only" need around 1.6% to get in as they will get a seat in the Western Jutland multi-member constituency and therefore be eligible for top-up seats and end up on 3 seats. It surely will not happen, but their road is a bit shorter than for other small parties.

In the European Committee in parliament, the Liberal Alliance are the most eurosceptic party. They have only voted in favour of the negotiating mandates 57% times; 60% for Enhedslisten and 68% for DPP. 98/100% for all the other parties as they are basically the ones who decide upon the mandates before they are presented. The party basically votes against anything that costs money in someway, or is not cooperation within trade or defense. So they want to keep the opt-out on justice and home affairs and on the euro, but want to abolish the defense opt-out and the special rule which means that foreigners (i.e. Germans) can't buy our summer cottages.

[Viewfromthenorth]

the special rule which means that foreigners (i.e. Germans) can't buy our summer cottages.

Don't be silly, us Norwegians will buy some too

What will LLR's future be if the center-right fail to win this election?

[Diouf]

In the category of people unlikely to get into parliament, Voxmeter has made a poll of the independent Yahya Hassan's chances to get in in the Eastern Jutland multi-member constituency. He needs around 4% to get in.
1 % say they are very likely to vote for him
3% say they are likely to vote for him
82% are unlikely or very unlikely to vote for him
14 % have not decided.

The two top ones combined do sum up to the needed 4%, but very unlikely that all of them will actually vote for him. This seems more like a could you possibly vote for him poll, which always gives balooned figures. In regular polls, where he is included, he polls much lower. In the most recent one, he got 4 votes out of 1000 respondents.

Hassan is a 20-year old poet who became very famous in 2013 when he published his poems, which have sold 120 000 copies so far; an incredibly high figure for a poem collection. The poems were, among other things, about the lack of integration in the ghetto where he grew up and the hypocrisy he saw in many muslims who claimed to be an image of piety, but at the same time hit their children and cheated the state in order to get the highest possible benefits. These criticisms reflected what many right-wing politicians had been saying for years, so he quickly became their favourite muslim and was seen by many of them as a vindication.
However, in the recent months, he has joined the National Party, a centre-left party created by a number of immigrants with the base in a local list in the Copenhagen suburbs. His speeches and political points have mainly focused on the negative consequences of the Danish wars in the middle-east and on support for the Palestinians. The question is, however, whether that is enough to redeem him in immigrant communities, where many still seem to see him as a traitor. Also many of them can't or don't vote.
If a giant shock is to happen on election night, he could be it, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[Diouf]

the special rule which means that foreigners (i.e. Germans) can't buy our summer cottages.

Don't be silly, us Norwegians will buy some too

What will LLR's future be if the center-right fail to win this election?

Don't you guys have enough of a coast line already?

If the blue bloc loses, LLR will certainly retire. Then he will have lost twice to Helle Thorning-Schmidt in addition to leading the party to a terrible defeat at the European elections. Also a significant part of the party wanted and expected him to leave a year ago, so there's no chance he is going to stay.
In terms of leaders leaving on election night, the Conservative Søren Pape Poulsen must be the favourite as it is very doubtful whether he will be elected himself. The losing bloc leader, HTS or LLR, will most likely retire as well. HTS may stay on for a while if the party result is good, but difficult to see her in charge of the party at the next general election in case the red bloc loses this time.

It will be interesting to see the personal votes of the two PM candidates. In 2011, LLR clearly won with 56 285 votes, while HTS finished 4th with 33 564 votes. More than 16 000 less than in 2007 for HTS. However, this time HTS' popularity is on the rise while LLR's has been clearly waning. Enhedslisten's "leader" Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen and the DPP's leader Kristian Thulelsen Dahl are probably the favourites to finish 1st this time. Schmidt-Nielsen was 2nd in 2011 with 47 002, whike Thulesen Dahl was 7th with 27 393. Since then the DPP looks poised for a big increase in their vote share and Thulelsen Dahl has become party leader, so him doubling his personal vote share would not be a great surprise.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Silly question, but what is happening with Thorning Schmidt and her husband? Are they now living and working in parliaments in two different countries? That must be pretty aggravating for both parties...

[ingemann]

Silly question, but what is happening with Thorning Schmidt and her husband? Are they now living and working in parliaments in two different countries? That must be pretty aggravating for both parties...

It's not silly, but it doesn't really fill much in a Danish context. HTS marriage are the least problem both her oiwn and Venstre have with her, and her own are happier to see her husband as a MP in UK than as a good little capitalist in Switzerland. Venstre have stayed far out of mentioning her husband, in hope people don't remember who leaked her tax papers. Only two unpleasant former members (Krarup and Langballe; the black priests*) of DPP brings it up, and the existing parties in parliaments don't mention it.

*black are not for the colour of their skin, but for the colour of their souls , or rather because they're hateful reactionary nationalist and Christian fundamentalists.

[Diouf]

Silly question, but what is happening with Thorning Schmidt and her husband? Are they now living and working in parliaments in two different countries? That must be pretty aggravating for both parties...

It's not silly, but it doesn't really fill much in a Danish context. HTS marriage are the least problem both her oiwn and Venstre have with her, and her own are happier to see her husband as a MP in UK than as a good little capitalist in Switzerland. Venstre have stayed far out of mentioning her husband, in hope people don't remember who leaked her tax papers. Only two unpleasant former members (Krarup and Langballe; the black priests*) of DPP brings it up, and the existing parties in parliaments don't mention it.

*black are not for the colour of their skin, but for the colour of their souls , or rather because they're hateful reactionary nationalist and Christian fundamentalists.

Something which a 25 mio kr(£3.35 mio) investigative commission couldn't find out of course

I wouldn't say all Venstre persons stay completely away from the topic, but they like to emphasize the point about the interpretation of the tax law being changed during Stephen Kinnock's case so that he had not commited anything illegal rather than the point about who leaked them.

[platypeanArchcow]

Silly question, but what is happening with Thorning Schmidt and her husband? Are they now living and working in parliaments in two different countries? That must be pretty aggravating for both parties...

It's not silly, but it doesn't really fill much in a Danish context. HTS marriage are the least problem both her oiwn and Venstre have with her...

You misunderstood -- the parties referred to were Helle and her husband.

[Diouf]

A slight elaboration on the electoral system:

175 seats are at play in Denmark, 2 in Greenland and 2 in the Faroe Islands.

Of the 175 Danish seats, 135 are constituency seats which are distributed among the ten multimember constituencies in our three electoral regions, while the remaining 40 seats are compensatory seats in order to achieve full proportionality. Most of the multimember constituencies have between 10 and 20 seats, but the remote island  of Bornholm has its own constituency with two MPs. Each constituency distributes it seats via the regular D'Hondt method.

Then the 40 compensatory are to be distributed between the eligible parties. There are three ways that parties can be eligible for compensatory seats: The first way is to get a constituency seat. The second way is to achieve at least 2% of the votes nationwide. The third way is obtaining in two of the three electoral regions a number of votes corresponding – at least – to the regional votes/seat ratio. The first way often means that the threshold in reality is even lower than the 2%; as mentioned above the Christian Democrats would probably only need to be at 1.6-1.7% nationwide to win a constituency seat in Wester Jutland. Similarly, had the Alternative been hovering around the same percentages, they would probably have gotten in through a constituency seat in Copenhagen or Eastern Jutland.

Once it is determined which parties are eligible for seats, the votes for ineligible parties and independents are removed. Then it is calculated how many of the 175 seats each party deserve via the largest remainder method. The parties then receive enough compensatory seats to reach their deserved number. The number of compensatory seats has always been sufficient for full compensation, even though that will theoretically not always be the case.

Greenland and the Faroe Islands each work like a seperate constituency which distributes 2 seats according to the regular d'Hondt Method. If Siumut implode in Greenland due to Aleqa Hammond's misuse of the Treasury, then perhaps IA could take both of the Greenlandic seats. If one thing should be changed in the electoral system, then it arguably is that these seats should be changed into the single transferable vote.

[Diouf]

Interesting poll by Gallup for Berlingske of the Western Jutland constituency:
(compared to 2011)

Social Democrats 23.7% (+0.7%) 4 constituency seats (=)
Social Liberals 4.9% (-2.4%) 0 seats (-1)
Conservatives 5.3% (+1.5%) 1 seat (+1)
SPP 4.2% (-3.9%) 0 seats (-1)
Liberal Alliance 7.0% (+2.1%) 1 seat (+1)
Christian Democrats 4.6% (+1.7%) 0 seats (=)
DPP 18.7% (+6.5%) 3 (+1)
Liberals 25.4% (-8.9%) 4 (-1)
Red-Green Alliance 4.9% (+1.4%) 0 seats (=)
The Alternative 1.3% (+1.3%) 0 seats (=)

First of all, it should be noted that the seat distribution is only the constituency seats. The compensatory seats will probably add 3 or 4 seats to the constituency; most likely to the four parties that looks likely to cross the electoral threshold nationwide.
However, the interesting parts about this polls is the result of the Conservatives and the Christian Democrats. While the Conservative polls are terrible on the national basis, it looks like the party leader and former Viborg mayor Søren Pape Poulsen has actually managed to make the Conservatives increase their share in Western Jutland by so much that he will get a constituency seat. This is only one regional poll, and his seat is the most marginal seat distributed, but it will be a great achievement if he pulls it off. Even if he does not get a constituency seat, a significant increase in Western Jutland and decreases everywhere else could mean that a compensatory seat is very possible.
The Christian Democrats also go significantly ahead compared to 2011. Their chance is to get a constituency seat in Western Jutland, and they are actually not far away from that. They probably need a further increase of around 0.7-0.8 % in Western Jutland to get in. It's probably not gonna happen, but they are closer than I thought. The coverage of this poll could perhaps be decisive; either to get right wing voters to help them above the threshold or people leaving because it seems like a wasted vote.
Also, if the national polls are not enough to show the degree of the Liberal disaster, then a 8.9% decrease in their Western Jutland heartland should hammer home the point. The Alternative's low score unsurprisingly suggests that they will get some amazing results in Copenhagen, Aarhus and other cities since their national average is between 4 and 5 %.

[ingemann]

Silly question, but what is happening with Thorning Schmidt and her husband? Are they now living and working in parliaments in two different countries? That must be pretty aggravating for both parties...

It's not silly, but it doesn't really fill much in a Danish context. HTS marriage are the least problem both her oiwn and Venstre have with her, and her own are happier to see her husband as a MP in UK than as a good little capitalist in Switzerland. Venstre have stayed far out of mentioning her husband, in hope people don't remember who leaked her tax papers. Only two unpleasant former members (Krarup and Langballe; the black priests*) of DPP brings it up, and the existing parties in parliaments don't mention it.

*black are not for the colour of their skin, but for the colour of their souls , or rather because they're hateful reactionary nationalist and Christian fundamentalists.

Something which a 25 mio kr(£3.35 mio) investigative commission couldn't find out of course

If there are any people who didn't know who leaked those documents, it's because they choose not to know it. Of course it's part of a bigger problem in Danish politics, politicians can get away witth leaking anything they want no matter what party they belong to (including people on the left). 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yes and they do have a point Kinnock shouldn't have gotten away with it, but it's hard to listen to people who break their confidentiality complain about other people's lack of moral.

[Diouf]

The polls open tomorrow at 9 and close at 8. As they close, the two main channels DR1 and TV2 will both publish an exit poll. I presume that both of them will have live streams on the internet which people outside Denmark can follow as well.

Prediction:
Social Democrats 24.5% 44 seats
Social Liberals 6.0% 11
Conservatives 3.4% 6
SPP 5.6% 10
Liberal Alliance 8.0% 14
Christian Democrats 0.9% 0
DPP 16.5% 29
Liberals 21.1% 37
Red-Green Alliance 8.5% 15
The Alternative 4.8% 9

Faroe Islands: Seats for the Union Party and the Social Democratic Party
Greenland: Betting on an upset: Two seats for IA

So results: 92-87 for the Red Bloc. IA have said that will not commit to supporting anything, but can't see them going anywhere but Red Bloc, especially if they win in Denmark.

Party leaders to resign on election night: Conservative leader Søren Pape Poulsen who fails to get a seat, and Liberal leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen.

Top 15 personal votes:
Kristian Thulelsen Dahl, DPP leader
Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen, Red-Green "leader"
Helle Thorning-Schmidt, Social Democrat leader and PM
Lars Løkke Rasmussen, Liberal Leader
Nicolai Wammen, Social Democrat Minister of Defence
Pia Kjærsgaard, DPP former Party leader and now spokesperson on values
Mette Frederiksen, Social Democrat Minister of Justice
Carl Holst, Liberal leader of Region Southern Denmark
Bjarne Laustsen, Social Democrat rebel and spokesperson for fisheries
Anders Samuelsen, Liberal Alliance leader
Uffe Elbæk, the Alternative leader
Dan Jørgensen, Social Democrat Minister of Agriculture
Morten Østergaard, Social Liberal Leader
Inger Støjberg, Liberal Political Spokesperson
Pernille Skipper, Red-Green de facto "deputy leader" and spokesperson for Justice

Honorable mentions:
Jakob Ellemann-Jensen, third generation Liberal MP and spokesperson for European Affairs
Magnus Heunicke, Social Democrat Minister of Transportation
Søren Pape Poulsen, Conservative leader

Have probably forgotten someone

[jaichind]

Any links on results when they come in ?

[Double Carpet]

Last call for Denmark game

Afternoon all,

If anyone would like to play the Denmark game, it closes at 7pm BST today:

electiongame.co.uk/denmark15/

Many thanks,

DC

[Diouf]

Any links on results when they come in ?

The official result site is http://www.kmdvalg.dk/main
However, they will only publish all the local and regional results as they come in. Usually, they don't make national aggregations or predictions.
To get that you will probably have to go to one of the TV channels (dr.dk and tv2.dk) or the newspapers (jp.dk and politiken.dk and b.dk).

DRs election coverage is here with a TV stream:
http://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/valg2015/live/live.htm

[Diouf]

Pictures of the campaign:

The classic "PM with baby"


The Social Liberal, Conservative and DPP leader all admiring the Red-Green Leader just before one of the TV debates


The Alternative leader Uffe Elbæk and his party letter in rainy conditions in Skagen, the northernmost part of Denmark



SPP leader Pia Olsen Dyhr targeting the children (and the hipsters) with these versions of her election poster


Christian Democrat leader Stig Grenov arguing his case at a gay bar in Copenhagen


Liberal Alliance leader Anders Samuelsen controlling his party's boat at the Folkemøde (People's Meeting) at Bornholm


Liberal leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen visiting Vollsmose


The two PM candidates meeting before one of the TV duels

[Silent Hunter]

Well, we shall see how it turns out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Are the election districts on the same boundaries as last time or do I need to make a few adjustments before making the cartographic equivalents of delicious sweeties that Danish elections always produce?