Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

[ingemann]

Are the election districts on the same boundaries as last time or do I need to make a few adjustments before making the cartographic equivalents of delicious sweeties that Danish elections always produce?

It's the same as usual I at least haven't heard and couldn't find any change from 2011.

There have been some minor changes to the number of mandates the different districts got. Copenhagen have gotten a mandate, which Copenhagen Suburbs lose (this may cost former minister Morten Bødskov (SocDem) his mandate). Beside that for the extra mandate Zealand-South Denmark lose one extra mandate to the Capital. This is a result of population changes. But there's no other changes in regional mandates.

[politicus]

Greenland: Betting on an upset: Two seats for IA

That is just silly...

Wonder what happened on the Faroes, the Union Party was as unpopular as speeding tickets and it doesn't really affect the Faroese what the Danish parliament decides on socioeconomic issues, so no real need for separatist right wingers to go Union instead of Republic.

[jaichind]

Is it not possible for Blues to win in terms of seats and votes in Denmark proper but for Reds to come out ahead in total seats since Reds will most likely win 3-1 in Faroe Islands and Greenland? If a Red government is formed this way how would  Denmark proper react ?

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

23.5 A
21.3 V
18.9 O
  9.1 Ø
  7.5 I
  5.1 Å
  5.0 B
  4.9 F
  3.4 C
  0.9 K
  0.4 Others

Turnout: 85.7%

47.6% Government (87 seats)
52.0% Opposition (92 seats)

[Diouf]

Is it not possible for Blues to win in terms of seats and votes in Denmark proper but for Reds to come out ahead in total seats since Reds will most likely win 3-1 in Faroe Islands and Greenland? If a Red government is formed this way how would  Denmark proper react ?

Yeah, fully possible. A lot of polls have showed that 88-87 victory for Blue Bloc in Denmark proper which would lead to the outcome you suggest. It is hard to gauge before it happens, but I don't imagine any significant backlash. We already had the 1998 election where the main story is that it was a bus full of Faroese people who decided the election as the expected 3-1 Blue win turned into a 2-2 and another term for the Social Democrat PM.

Søren Espersen from DPP says:"Faroese and Greenlandic seats are A-seats just like any others. That is how the constitution is, and I won't be mad about that just because I happen to be blue." If you were expecting any party to come out with any criticism of it, it would probably have been the DPP, so when they say like that, little will happen. In fact, those who seem to be the most critical of the North Atlantic influence are the North Atlantic candidates themselves. Especially the separatist candidates have said that they don't believe that the Faroese should decide who becomes PM in Denmark, because of course they don't believe that Denmark should have any say in how the Faroe Islands are ruled.

[Donnie]

Final prediction:

48% Red Block  (left)
51% Blue Block (right)

[Viewfromthenorth]

Final prediction:
A 25,6%
V 20,9%
O 17,2%
Ø 8,2%
I 7,7%
F 5,7%
B 5,3%
Å 4,6%
C 3,5%
K 1,1%

Red block 90 seats
Blue block 89 seats

[Diouf]

Turnout at midday 27.3%. It was 27.8% in 2011. Final turnout in 2011 was 87.74%, so it looks like we're on road to a similar or slightly lower turnout this time.

[Diouf]

Turnout at 14 is 37.2%. Exactly the same as in 2011.

[Jens]

Just voted - pretty packed at my polling place but fast and efficient thanks to the new voting card scanning system
People looked quite happy and the sun started shining too

But I'm pretty sure this is going to be a nail biter and that some parts of the polls is going to turn out dead wrong

[Jens]

Pictures of the campaign:



SPP leader Pia Olsen Dyhr targeting the children (and the hipsters) with these versions of her election poster

That's my friends kid on that picture

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What time is the exit poll out at?

[Diouf]

What time is the exit poll out at?

Most of them will come at 20 when the polls close. There will be different ones. I guess TV2/Megafon and DR/Epinion will publish one each, and then perhaps one or two of the newspapers will make one as well. Metroxpress (mx.dk) wants the role as the "bad boy" so they have said they will publish YouGov exit polls before 20, but I haven't seen any specific times. I would guess at 18 and/or 19 if they carry through on it.

[Diouf]

Actually Metroxpress has just published their first exit poll: http://www.mx.dk/nyheder/danmark/story/15713210

2 126 respondents asked from 9.10 to 15.30

Narrow Red Bloc win (90-89) if North Atlantic polls go as expected

[jaichind]

Actually Metroxpress has just published their first exit poll: http://www.mx.dk/nyheder/danmark/story/15713210

2 126 respondents asked from 9.10 to 15.30

Narrow Red Bloc win (90-89) if North Atlantic polls go as expected

They are allowed to publish this even as people are still voting ?

[Tender Branson]

Actually Metroxpress has just published their first exit poll: http://www.mx.dk/nyheder/danmark/story/15713210

2 126 respondents asked from 9.10 to 15.30

Narrow Red Bloc win (90-89) if North Atlantic polls go as expected

An exit poll based on 45% turnout (15:30) is not really useful, considering final turnout will be 87%.

[Diouf]

Actually Metroxpress has just published their first exit poll: http://www.mx.dk/nyheder/danmark/story/15713210

2 126 respondents asked from 9.10 to 15.30

Narrow Red Bloc win (90-89) if North Atlantic polls go as expected

They are allowed to publish this even as people are still voting ?

Yes, no rules, but the other media have an agreement to wait until 20. Some of them have also been scared by recent disasters. DR had an exit prognosis around this time for the local elections which were far far off.
The result of the exit poll is not really different from the polls during the campaign, so any impact will probably not be that big.

[Diouf]

Turnout at 16: 49.6%. It was 50.4% in 2011 at the same point.

[Diouf]

Live streams for the two main channels. I obviously can't check whether they work outside Denmark.

DR: http://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/valg2015/live/live.htm

TV2: http://play.tv2.dk/live/tv-2-news/#tv-2-news?icid=TV%202%20PLAY:big

[Diouf]

Finally managed to find the full numbers for the latest Faroese poll from 15 June

Sambandsflokkurin (Liberals) 26.5%
Javnaðarflokkurin (Social Democrat) 22.4%
Tjóðveldisflokkurin (Separatist, Socialist, but claim not to automatically support HTS) 20.7%
Fólkaflokkurin (Conservative, Separatist) 16.1%
Miðflokkurin (Christian Democrat) 6%
Framsókn (new liberal separatist) 3.7%
Sjálvstýrisflokkurin (Social Liberal separatist) 2.5%

A Faroese journalist report on Twitter that turnout in Klaksvik, the Fólkaflokkurin heartland, is up 30% so perhaps they have a chance to pick up one of the seats.
It seems like the non-Social Democrat parties have attacked HTS and the Social Democrats hard in recent days for their role in the EU's boycott of mackarel from the Faroe Islands after disputes about quotas.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Live streams for the two main channels. I obviously can't check whether they work outside Denmark.

DR: http://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/valg2015/live/live.htm

TV2: http://play.tv2.dk/live/tv-2-news/#tv-2-news?icid=TV%202%20PLAY:big

It's working in East Denmark.

[jaichind]

Live streams for the two main channels. I obviously can't check whether they work outside Denmark.

DR: http://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/valg2015/live/live.htm

TV2: http://play.tv2.dk/live/tv-2-news/#tv-2-news?icid=TV%202%20PLAY:big

Works in NYC

[Viewfromthenorth]

The Sand Depository's TV channels are working in Norway.

[jaichind]

Actually Metroxpress has just published their first exit poll: http://www.mx.dk/nyheder/danmark/story/15713210

2 126 respondents asked from 9.10 to 15.30

Narrow Red Bloc win (90-89) if North Atlantic polls go as expected

An exit poll based on 45% turnout (15:30) is not really useful, considering final turnout will be 87%.

Would not that work even more to the advantage of the Reds since the working class will be voting later in the day due to their work schedule?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Actually Metroxpress has just published their first exit poll: http://www.mx.dk/nyheder/danmark/story/15713210

2 126 respondents asked from 9.10 to 15.30

Narrow Red Bloc win (90-89) if North Atlantic polls go as expected

An exit poll based on 45% turnout (15:30) is not really useful, considering final turnout will be 87%.

Would not that work even more to the advantage of the Reds since the working class will be voting later in the day due to their work schedule?

No.