Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

[jaichind]

Where do you guys see total votes ?

I am using

http://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/valg2015/resultat

But that does not seem to tabulate total votes.  I have to look at each district at a time.

[Viewfromthenorth]

With 0.9% of votes counted, blue block is still leading 65% to 35%!

The first DR prognosis based on the first 0.6% of votes predicts blue team to win 92-83, shockingly different from their own exit poll. According to it, Liberals and DPP have basically the same number of parliamentarians.

For crying out loud, there is NOTHING about this first percent that makes it worthwhile to use exclamation points. If it's still 92-83 in two hours or so, we can use all the exclamation points we want.

[eric82oslo]

Where do you guys see total votes ?

I am using

http://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/valg2015/resultat

But that does not seem to tabulate total votes.  I have to look at each district at a time.

Here they have total votes: http://www.politiko.dk/valgresultat#/

1.2% right now, though DR live broadcast is showing at least 1.5% now.

[jaichind]

TV2 prognosis seems to be Blue 90 Red 85.

[eric82oslo]

With 0.9% of votes counted, blue block is still leading 65% to 35%!

The first DR prognosis based on the first 0.6% of votes predicts blue team to win 92-83, shockingly different from their own exit poll. According to it, Liberals and DPP have basically the same number of parliamentarians.

For crying out loud, there is NOTHING about this first percent that makes it worthwhile to use exclamation points. If it's still 92-83 in two hours or so, we can use all the exclamation points we want.

It's not that, it's the fact that all the red block parties except The Alternative is backing heavily everywhere, except for Labour which is barely increasing at all and The Red-Greens which are almost unchanged. The big winners, besides the Alternative, seem to be all blue parties, especially DPP and Liberal Aliance. And besides of the Liberals, the two big losers are SPP and Radical Left, which are losing between 60-80% of their 2011 total in most districts I've seen. That's a pretty Heavy fall.

[DavidB.]

Really can't say anything about this yet, but I have a strong feeling that DPP's strength has been greatly underestimated.

[Talleyrand]

DR's prognosis has DPP on 39 and Venstre on 35.

[Tender Branson]

Really can't say anything about this yet, but I have a strong feeling that DPP's strength has been greatly underestimated.

I already knew it somehow and carefully put them at 19% in my prediction, 3% higher than what the final polls showed ...

[DavidB.]

Seems like the right pulled a Netanyahu/Cameron and outperformed the polls, with the important difference that Venstre has actually lost big time in terms of votes and seats.

[eric82oslo]

With 3.9% counted, the deputy prognosis right now is Labour 48, DPP 2nd with 39 and Liberals only 35.
The percentage prognosis is already showing blue block to win more than 5% more votes than red block.

[republicanbayer]

DR's prognosis has DPP on 39 and Venstre on 35.

Could Thulesen Dhal become Prime Minister?

[Beezer]

What if the DPP somehow sneaks into first place within the blue bloc? DPP PM or do we see a solution similar to what happened in Austria back in 1999?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The Danish posters will say it is impossible that DPP will even be in the government, but let's be honest... It's not reasonable for the third largest party, that has just gotten clobbered to form government on their own. It would be suicide for Venstre to alone bear the burden of government, and LLR should insist to have DPP in the cabinet.

[DavidB.]

The Danish posters will say it is impossible that DPP will even be in the government, but let's be honest... It's not reasonable for the third largest party, that has just gotten clobbered to form government on their own. It would be suicide for Venstre to alone bear the burden of government, and LLR should insist to have DPP in the cabinet.

They won't have to govern on their own. They could include Liberal Alliance and possibly the Conservatives as well.

[eric82oslo]

Except in Copenhagen, where it's about 50-50, the map is still almost entirely blue: http://www.politiko.dk/valgresultat#/

The latest prognosis shows blue block leading 94-81.

[Viewfromthenorth]

The Danish posters will say it is impossible that DPP will even be in the government, but let's be honest... It's not reasonable for the third largest party, that has just gotten clobbered to form government on their own. It would be suicide for Venstre to alone bear the burden of government, and LLR should insist to have DPP in the cabinet.

They won't have to govern on their own. They could include Liberal Alliance and possibly the Conservatives as well.

That would be the traditional way of doing things (probably just with the Conservatives in that case), but it would still be an incredibly weak government. DF would probably exert more influence outside government if this came to be.

There is precedent for a clobbered Venstre to form government, but that government lasted barely a year - Poul Hartling from Dec 73 to Jan 75.

[Talleyrand]

DR's prognosis has gone to 95-80. 46 SD, 40 DPP, 37 Venstre.

[DavidB.]

The Danish posters will say it is impossible that DPP will even be in the government, but let's be honest... It's not reasonable for the third largest party, that has just gotten clobbered to form government on their own. It would be suicide for Venstre to alone bear the burden of government, and LLR should insist to have DPP in the cabinet.

They won't have to govern on their own. They could include Liberal Alliance and possibly the Conservatives as well.

That would be the traditional way of doing things (probably just with the Conservatives in that case), but it would still be an incredibly weak government. DF would probably exert more influence outside government if this came to be.

There is precedent for a clobbered Venstre to form government, but that government lasted barely a year - Poul Hartling from Dec 73 to Jan 75.

I know. This isn't exactly the ideal scenario for Venstre, or for the right...

[Tender Branson]

Well, then:

Bye, bye Helle ...

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

There is precedent for a clobbered Venstre to form government, but that government lasted barely a year - Poul Hartling from Dec 73 to Jan 75.

That is an entirely meaningless precedent. Politically, 1973 might as well have been an entirely different era. If you go back far enough you can find precedent for everything.

The point is that if Venstre go into government on their own with DPP being allowed to wave the populist flag on the sideline, taking no responsibility, in four years time Venstre will be annihilated, while DPP will continue to grow. Now DPP know this, which is why they are uneasy to enter into government, but what what everyone seems to assume for some reason, is that Venstre doesn't know this, which is silly.

 

[DavidB.]

New prognosis: 96-79. This is only getting better and better.

[Talleyrand]

TV2 has also finally shifted. Now it's at 91-84. 46-39-35. DR has shifted back to 92-83, but with the same results for the big 3 parties.

[Beezer]

So...is there any chance whatsoever of the DPP taking over the reins?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So...is there any chance whatsoever of the DPP taking over the reins?

Is it likely? No, even with this result it is very unlikely...

   ...but there is a small (very small) possibility.

[DavidB.]

So...is there any chance whatsoever of the DPP taking over the reins?

Fat chance, even with these results.