Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

[Talleyrand]

Overall vote prognosis has the Blue Bloc on 52.9% and the Red Bloc on 47.1%.

[Tender Branson]

Reminds me of the Styrian state election, just with small differences.

What's the chance that if DPP ends up ahead of V, that A and V end up in a grand coalition with some smaller party as stirrup, to prevent a DPP-led government ? Maybe if V plays it right, even with V getting the prime minister, despite only being third ? By playing their cards right they could pressure A into giving up the PM post ...

[DavidB.]

Reminds me of the Styrian state election, just with small differences.

What's the chance that if DPP ends up ahead of V, that A and V end up in a grand coalition with some smaller party as stirrup, to prevent a DPP-led government ? Maybe if V plays it right, even with V getting the prime minister, despite only being third ? By playing their cards right they could pressure A into giving up the PM post ...

DPP ahead of V: this is probably going to happen.
A and V: can't see this happening, this will really kill V.

A right-wing minority coalition with DPP support remains the most probable option.

[Viewfromthenorth]

Reminds me of the Styrian state election, just with small differences.

What's the chance that if DPP ends up ahead of V, that A and V end up in a grand coalition with some smaller party as stirrup, to prevent a DPP-led government ? Maybe if V plays it right, even with V getting the prime minister, despite only being third ? By playing their cards right they could pressure A into giving up the PM post ...

Grand coalitions between social democrats and the largest establishment center-right party are a Austro-German phenomenon. I would agree that another right-wing minority coalition is the most probable option. If Dansk Folkeparti can stay out of government, they've gotten themselves into the golden position.

[Hydera]

Reminds me of the Styrian state election, just with small differences.

What's the chance that if DPP ends up ahead of V, that A and V end up in a grand coalition with some smaller party as stirrup, to prevent a DPP-led government ? Maybe if V plays it right, even with V getting the prime minister, despite only being third ? By playing their cards right they could pressure A into giving up the PM post ...

I know im walking into a hornets nest trying to reason with a watermelon green. But seriously. V and DPP relationship is unlike the FPÖ-OVP coalition before it broke.

Its not happening.

[jaichind]

So there was a shy DPP effect in the exit polls.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

DR has been interviewing DPP politicians, and they are not entirely closing the door on government... Pia Kjearsgaard said we should all wait out the final results before venturing into that sort of speculation.

[Silent Hunter]

A shame that the Red Bloc appears to have lost and DPP have done so well, but it won't be easy for Venstre to govern, so that's a small blessing.

[DavidB.]

I would've voted DPP, but I'm not that happy with Venstre coming third - it will only make government formation harder.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

When pressured, Thulesen Dahl doesn't want to entirely rule out participating in government either. He is simply saying that the party will place itself where they'll get the most political influence... which could mean everything.   

[Silent Hunter]

Would the other right wing parties back a DPP government.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, then:

Bye, bye Helle ...

This is most depressing.

[Viewfromthenorth]

What I think will actually be the hardest part of government negotiations is often overlooked - economic policy. DF are strong supporters of the welfare state in its present form, while Venstre want a freeze in growth of public expenditure. Venstre, Liberal Alliance and Konservative want further economic reforms, DF does not.

Would the other right wing parties back a DPP government.

No. And DF themselves have ruled that out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well this looks to be spectacularly messy. Can a genuinely stable government even be formed from figures such as these?

[eric82oslo]

Well this looks to be spectacularly messy. Can a genuinely stable government even be formed from figures such as these?

A government with 19.5% of voters behind it doesn't sound very impressive to me at least.

[jaichind]

A government with 19.5% of voters behind it doesn't sound very impressive to me at least.

And the same party lost 7% of the vote share from the previous election.  Usually when you are in the opposition and then lose 7% of the vote from the previous election it implies you should stay in opposition. 

[Viewfromthenorth]

As I see it, the most likely options at the moment:

(For those unfamiliar with Danish party letters: V = Liberals, O = DPP, I = Liberal Alliance, K = Conservatives)

1. VOIK
2. VIK
3. VK
4. V
5. VO
6. VOI
7. VOK

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I believe it'll be either VO, or VOI. But it really can end up anyway I think.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The potential for a hilarious trainwreck of a government is, I think, quite definite.

[Viewfromthenorth]

Could Helle and Lars Løkke get their speeches over with already? I need a toilet break.

[Max Stirner]

denmark 2015=austria 1999?

[eric82oslo]

Results in Nørrebro, inner Copenhagen borough, when 81.5% of votes are counted there.

Red parties: 80.3%
Blue parties: 19.5%

1. Enhetslisten (The Red-Greens): 26.7%
2. The Alternative: 17.9%
3. Social Democrats: 17.3%
4. Radical Left: 11.0%
5. Socialist People's Party: 7.4%

6. Liberal Alliance: 6.4%
7. Liberals (Venstre): 6.0%
8. Danish People's Party: 5.3%
9. Conservative: 1.5%
10. Christian Democrats: 0.3%

LOL

[Hydera]

Looks like one group of people won't be happy about this: ISIS fighters.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-17/danish-foreign-fighters-welcomed-back-into-country/6554360

http://www.thelocal.dk/20141127/danish-syria-fighters-on-benefits-while-fighting-for-isis

[Filuwaúrdjan]

denmark 2015=austria 1999?

The situation is different in almost all respects (Denmark and Austria are really quite different countries). One of which is that the DPP - whatever one might say about elements of its past - is considerably less toxic than the FPO: it has never gone into government out of (cynical, calculated) choice.

[DavidB.]

What are the differences between The Alternative and the Red-Greens?