Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015
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  Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015
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Author Topic: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015  (Read 109198 times)
Jens
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« Reply #475 on: June 21, 2015, 11:42:59 AM »

Lars Lřkke Rasmussen has just given up on creating a majority government with all four parties. It seems like this was almost just a media stunt from the Liberal Alliance to show that "we really want to be in government" despite it being almost impossible to make such a majority government with policies that would be acceptable to them.
A new round at the queen tomorrow, and this time all the right-wing parties will just say that they want Lřkke to form a government. I think it will then come down to whether it will be a Liberal government or a Liberal-DPP government.
There is some pretty substantial rumours that LA want to join a Venstre-government. Especially the former RV-politicians Anders Samuelsen and Simon Emil Amitzbřl are quite keen. but we'll see about that
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ingemann
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« Reply #476 on: June 21, 2015, 04:17:28 PM »

What I really find interesting is what potential majorities this delivers for a to make deals.

VOIC is of course the obvious majority, but can DPP really cooperate with LA and C outside supporting the same government?

VOS have a nice majority on it own

VS+one of the minor parties except the conservatives also delive a majority (thanks to two North Atlantic mandates to S)

VOIR also deliver a potential majority, but it suffer from DPP having to cooperate with I and R.

A interesting majority without V is SOF. DPP have had a rather good working relationship with SPP in the election campaign.

All this is a excellent reason for DPP to stay outside the government, as they in that case don't need to make deals with IC on issues where it hurt them, except for the annual budget, and they're in a better position to push V into more left wing economical policies if they stay outside the government.
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politicus
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« Reply #477 on: June 21, 2015, 05:47:16 PM »


This map really tells an important part of the story. Last time around, a bunch of the smaller cities like Randers and Esbjerg were colored red. At this point, it's only Copenhagen+western suburbs, Ĺrhus, Odense and half of Aalborg, plus a couple random rural municipalities.

Obviously, the Social Democrats did well in most of these places, but it seems that their coalition partners really collapsed in mid-sized Denmark.

Svendborg is not rural, but the second largest town on Fyn and Lolland - with Nakskov - is far from random, but the reddest (and poorest) area in Denmark.

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politicus
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« Reply #478 on: June 21, 2015, 05:52:22 PM »
« Edited: June 21, 2015, 05:56:37 PM by Charlotte Hebdo »

So in Denmark Proper it is 90-85 Blues.  But TV2 seems to indicate that Reds won all 4 seats in Faroe Islands and Greenland so it is 90-89 for Blues.  Is this true? What happen to the Union Party in Faroe Islands ?

All media are reporting this, so it would appear to be true. Been wondering about the same thing, apparently the Republicans picked up a seat out of nowhere in the Faroes. Most of the reports for the past couple days have been about the Social Democrats possibly losing their seat, but they held on to it comfortably.

The surprisjng thing was the poll.. The centre-right government is unpopular, so a double red was always a likely possibility.

The current SD MP is a popular entertainer and radio personality, apart from being a politologist, and he was never in any real danger.

Given that the Danish parliament has almost zero influence a switch of right wing separatist voters to left wing wing separatist Republic was always a possibility. Faroese voters tend to vote more on the separatist-unionist scale in Folketing elections than on the socio-economic.
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politicus
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« Reply #479 on: June 21, 2015, 05:55:43 PM »

So despite topping the poll and increasing her vote share, she ends up resigning. That seems non-sensical to me.

Ever since 1982 all Danish governments have won a second term. Failing to do that makes HTS a failure and there is a strong alliance between Mette Frederiksen and Henrik Sass Larsen, uniting the two strongest factions, that are not happy about her and Corydon. She did not have much of a choice IMO.
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Viewfromthenorth
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« Reply #480 on: June 21, 2015, 06:50:23 PM »

Svendborg is not rural, but the second largest town on Fyn and Lolland - with Nakskov - is far from random, but the reddest (and poorest) area in Denmark.

Noted - Fyn is kind of a blind spot in my geographic knowledge (I'm sure a lot of Danes can relate), but I should have figured out Lolland and Falster.
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politicus
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« Reply #481 on: June 21, 2015, 10:03:15 PM »

Svendborg is not rural, but the second largest town on Fyn and Lolland - with Nakskov - is far from random, but the reddest (and poorest) area in Denmark.

Noted - Fyn is kind of a blind spot in my geographic knowledge (I'm sure a lot of Danes can relate), but I should have figured out Lolland and Falster.

Svendborg is a working class town and still fairly red. Odense is a traditional Conservative stronghold and one of the few town outside the capital area, where that party styill has strength, but has a strong SD presence as well. The third largest is Nyborg, which is an industrial town with a lot of traditional working class voters.
Southern Fyn is generally a marginalized area, despite being one of the most beautiful parts of Denmark. The islands to the south of Fyn are even poorer, with Langeland near the bottom.

While Danes like the term Lolland-Falster, the two islands are not alike politically. Falster and the eastern part of Lolland are not poorer or more red than many other provincial  areas - but is a DPP stronghold. As you can see it went with blue bloc this time. The really red area is Western Lolland with Nakskov. Before the municipal reform 5 out of 6 of the poorest municipalities were in Western Lolland, now they have added the middle part of the island where social conditions are more normal and there are less social clients and that makes it less extreme. Besides losing a lot of industrial jobs Western Lolland is also a magnet for problem families from Copenhagen because of cheap housing and has a high crime rate.
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politicus
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« Reply #482 on: June 21, 2015, 10:20:54 PM »

Regarding government possibilities:

Venstre said before the election that they considered LA immature and DPP will not accept LA in government.

The  Conservatives are not popular with DPP and it is hard to see why they should want to enter government. I see that as a non-starter.

It is hard to see why DPP should want to enter a government with such a narrow majority, it is bound to collapse within 1-2 years and if DPP stays out they can pick up the pieces. If they enter it will open the gates for Danish Unity (bound to be on the ballot next time due to electronic signature registration) and DPP will lose seats to Red Bloc due to compromising on welfare. While they have tried to vet all their candidates carefully, there will always be a couple of unreliable candidates in a populist party that gains so much, and these types will jump ship if a government will have to do something very unpopular.

It is between a Liberal minority government and a Liberal-DPP coalition. The first option is the logical - unless Thulesen-Dahl has lost his cool. I was very surprised DPP even brought up getting into government in the first place.

Worth noticing: For left wingers this was actually quite a good election despite the poor result from the two left wing parties: They got rid of Thorning, Radikale was cut down to size (even 1% below their typical modern level) and there is a good chance of an at least somewhat more red centre-left coalition within 1-2 years. A similarly narrow Red Bloc win would almost have guaranteed a strong Blue Bloc win next time with maybe 7-8 years of Blue Bloc dominance.
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politicus
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« Reply #483 on: June 21, 2015, 10:23:29 PM »

Danish posters: do you think this parliament can last a full term?

No chance. I would be very surprised if it lasts longer than two years and a 2016 election is very likely.

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politicus
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« Reply #484 on: June 21, 2015, 10:34:10 PM »

Oh great, another sh*tty election result.

Given the circumstances it is actually quite good for people like you. As noted above the reverse result would have been a disaster for the left.

This might very well be the ouverture for a Frederiksen goverment in 2016 with a weaker Radikale = a more classical SD line. Alternativet is a joker, but if you count them as somewhat leftist/green, this is not bad for the left. DPP won so big that they might be tempted/feel obliged to enter government, which is the safest way to break a right wing populist party - especially such a weak government.

The Thorning/Corydon axis was a guarantee for a all round quite right wing party, both on economics, immigration and civil rights/justice. It was only on the environment that this goverment was (moderately) leftist. If Thorning had stayed on with a decent election result this would have continued.
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politicus
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« Reply #485 on: June 22, 2015, 12:05:23 AM »

A poor result as expected for the Conservatives, but there might be some hope for the party in the 6 candidates it looks like they will get in. The leader Sřren Pape Poulsen gets in and managed to improve his party's fortunes in Western Jutland to 4.9%. The former leader Lars Barfoed will not get a seat in Copenhagen, and instead the 27-year old Mette Abildgaard is elected in Northern Zealand. The 55-year old Mike Legarth will not be re-elected in Southern Jutland, while 35-year old Mai Mercado will be elected in Funen. Finally the 38-year old Rasmus Jarlov, who has been the Conservative leader in the Copenhagen City Council, will get into parliament.
So the generational change the party has been longing for, seems to come true. However, with recounts and so on, seats could change again inside the party, but it looks like they will get a completely new start.

Pape, Abilgaard, Jarlov and Mercado... That is four solid right wingers. Who are the last two? Does Pape get a pure right wing group? That would make his political project much more realistic.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #486 on: June 22, 2015, 02:46:58 AM »

It is between a Liberal minority government and a Liberal-DPP coalition. The first option is the logical - unless Thulesen-Dahl has lost his cool. I was very surprised DPP even brought up getting into government in the first place.

Thulesen-Dahl has said that the party should be were it will be able to have the greatest influence, has he not? Let's face it, on immigration DPP will hold the sway no matter if they're in or out of this government, however on other areas, most notebly the European Union, it is entierly possible, not to say likely, that a pure Venstre government would run a very pro-European policy with support from across the aisle. If DPP is in the government however they can make sure that Denmark is a close ally to Cameron in the re-negotiations of the EU-terms, and thereby curb intra-EU migration.

On the same time, Lars Lökke has all the reason to want the DPP inside his government. I think your analysis too often assume that Lökke is some docile idiot, and not the sharp ruthless and mean politician he actually is. With a strong coalition partner in the government he will have someone to share the blame with, and since voters always finds a reason to be cross with the government, it is most important as a party to not stand alone in government, especially when your party is already weak.       

In a coalition Lökke would also be able to trade concessions from Venstre on Europe for a more centre-right economic policy, which would please the Liberal Alliance and the Conservatives. Everybody wins, and the blue bloc gets the most stable government they could out of this unstable election result.

That is why the Venstre-DPP coalition is actually the most logical solution.
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Diouf
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« Reply #487 on: June 22, 2015, 03:07:58 AM »

A poor result as expected for the Conservatives, but there might be some hope for the party in the 6 candidates it looks like they will get in. The leader Sřren Pape Poulsen gets in and managed to improve his party's fortunes in Western Jutland to 4.9%. The former leader Lars Barfoed will not get a seat in Copenhagen, and instead the 27-year old Mette Abildgaard is elected in Northern Zealand. The 55-year old Mike Legarth will not be re-elected in Southern Jutland, while 35-year old Mai Mercado will be elected in Funen. Finally the 38-year old Rasmus Jarlov, who has been the Conservative leader in the Copenhagen City Council, will get into parliament.
So the generational change the party has been longing for, seems to come true. However, with recounts and so on, seats could change again inside the party, but it looks like they will get a completely new start.

Pape, Abilgaard, Jarlov and Mercado... That is four solid right wingers. Who are the last two? Does Pape get a pure right wing group? That would make his political project much more realistic.

Mr. Stop Nazi-Islamism Naser Khader and Brian Mikkelsen. Khader certainly quite right-wing, and after his failures in the New Alliance in explaining economic policies, he seems like he has lost interest in that part. His campaign was very much focus on immigration and extremism.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #488 on: June 22, 2015, 04:01:55 AM »

Oh great, another sh*tty election result.

Given the circumstances it is actually quite good for people like you. As noted above the reverse result would have been a disaster for the left.

This might very well be the ouverture for a Frederiksen goverment in 2016 with a weaker Radikale = a more classical SD line. Alternativet is a joker, but if you count them as somewhat leftist/green, this is not bad for the left. DPP won so big that they might be tempted/feel obliged to enter government, which is the safest way to break a right wing populist party - especially such a weak government.

The Thorning/Corydon axis was a guarantee for a all round quite right wing party, both on economics, immigration and civil rights/justice. It was only on the environment that this goverment was (moderately) leftist. If Thorning had stayed on with a decent election result this would have continued.

Thanks for the explanation, that's quite heartening actually.

When will the next SD Congress be held? And who are the leading candidates? Hopefully the next leader will be a left-winger.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #489 on: June 22, 2015, 04:48:00 AM »

From figures I saw before it seemed as if the class dimension was shockingly lacking in Denmark, at least as compared to Sweden, due to both Venstre and Dansk Folkeparti having such strong support among workers.

I still don't get the proliferation of left-wing parties in Denmark. If the Redgreens are the traditional far left and Alternativet is the alternative green left then what purpose does the SPP have?
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ingemann
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« Reply #490 on: June 22, 2015, 05:51:19 AM »
« Edited: June 22, 2015, 06:02:08 AM by ingemann »

From figures I saw before it seemed as if the class dimension was shockingly lacking in Denmark, at least as compared to Sweden, due to both Venstre and Dansk Folkeparti having such strong support among workers.

I still don't get the proliferation of left-wing parties in Denmark. If the Redgreens are the traditional far left and Alternativet is the alternative green left then what purpose does the SPP have?

Alternativet is a new party, as such it doesn't effect the "traditional" left structures. Where Red-Green was a coalition of everybody on the far left; Maoist, Communist, weird off shoots from SPP, it's more or less the Danish Syriza. SPP was the democratic left, who thought SocDem was to far right and pragmatic, but still able to make political compromises and deals, they also took the same niche as the Green have taken in the rest of Europe.

As for the Alternative, they're left and green, but not traditional green, they're much more social-liberal greens, not watermelon green. But again they're a new party, so it will take some time before we see what voter segments and political niche they keep in the long term. I wouldn't be surprised if the party whose vote segment they will go after in the long term will be the Social Liberals rather than SPP or the Red-Greens, just as New/Liberal Alliance voter segments have changed from mostly centre voters to classical liberals and neoliberals from Venstre and Conservatives as the party matured.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #491 on: June 22, 2015, 08:22:17 AM »

Failing to do that makes HTS a failure

That wasn't exactly her fault -  it was Radikale and SF who lost 18 seats between them.
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ingemann
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« Reply #492 on: June 22, 2015, 08:46:12 AM »

Failing to do that makes HTS a failure

That wasn't exactly her fault -  it was Radikale and SF who lost 18 seats between them.

It doesn't make much of a difference for Venstre and SocDem only gaining power matters, that's success everything else is a failure. Svend Auken got some of the greatest election results for SocDem and he's still seen as a failure, because he failed to gain power.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #493 on: June 22, 2015, 06:01:56 PM »

Basically just did this for fun:

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politicus
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« Reply #494 on: June 22, 2015, 06:17:32 PM »

It is between a Liberal minority government and a Liberal-DPP coalition. The first option is the logical - unless Thulesen-Dahl has lost his cool. I was very surprised DPP even brought up getting into government in the first place.

Thulesen-Dahl has said that the party should be were it will be able to have the greatest influence, has he not? Let's face it, on immigration DPP will hold the sway no matter if they're in or out of this government, however on other areas, most notably the European Union, it is entirely possible, not to say likely, that a pure Venstre government would run a very pro-European policy with support from across the aisle. If DPP is in the government however they can make sure that Denmark is a close ally to Cameron in the re-negotiations of the EU-terms, and thereby curb intra-EU migration.

On the same time, Lars Lökke has all the reason to want the DPP inside his government. I think your analysis too often assume that Lökke is some docile idiot, and not the sharp ruthless and mean politician he actually is. With a strong coalition partner in the government he will have someone to share the blame with, and since voters always finds a reason to be cross with the government, it is most important as a party to not stand alone in government, especially when your party is already weak.       

In a coalition Lökke would also be able to trade concessions from Venstre on Europe for a more centre-right economic policy, which would please the Liberal Alliance and the Conservatives. Everybody wins, and the blue bloc gets the most stable government they could out of this unstable election result.

That is why the Venstre-DPP coalition is actually the most logical solution.

It is obviously the best option for Venstre (never claimed otherwise), but at the end of the day the DPP is the party that decides. Loekke is in a weak position. He does not have much of a choice.

So far most observers have assumed that DPP would only go into government if they were stronger than the other three blue bloc parties and thereby able to get major influence on European policy. This time the Eurosceptic part of Blue Bloc is stronger than the Europhile, but DPP itself is still weaker than Lib/Con and LA is not a natural ally for DPP. Eurosceptics are a minority in the Folketing and the old parties (Venstre, SD, Radikale and Conservatives) are unlikely to want major changes to Danish EU policy. Being unambiguously pro-European is still seen as vital for corporate and agricultural Denmark and thereby also for Venstre.

If DPP stays out they are in a good position for the next election, if they join, they will almost certainly lose seats. That is the bottom line. They need big concessions for them to be worth it. Even then it seems like an unnecessary risk.
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politicus
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« Reply #495 on: June 22, 2015, 06:23:42 PM »

Failing to do that makes HTS a failure

That wasn't exactly her fault -  it was Radikale and SF who lost 18 seats between them.

It doesn't make much of a difference for Venstre and SocDem only gaining power matters, that's success everything else is a failure. Svend Auken got some of the greatest election results for SocDem and he's still seen as a failure, because he failed to gain power.

^^^^

Getting votes from your coalition partners is not considered success. when Auken won big in 1990 it was dismissed as a fusion on the left by pundits, because SF lost big.

Besides seen in a historical light the SD result is still among the worst in party history. You can say it is good by "modern standards", but being below 30% is still seen as rather miserable by many.
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politicus
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« Reply #496 on: June 22, 2015, 06:35:55 PM »

A poor result as expected for the Conservatives, but there might be some hope for the party in the 6 candidates it looks like they will get in. The leader Sřren Pape Poulsen gets in and managed to improve his party's fortunes in Western Jutland to 4.9%. The former leader Lars Barfoed will not get a seat in Copenhagen, and instead the 27-year old Mette Abildgaard is elected in Northern Zealand. The 55-year old Mike Legarth will not be re-elected in Southern Jutland, while 35-year old Mai Mercado will be elected in Funen. Finally the 38-year old Rasmus Jarlov, who has been the Conservative leader in the Copenhagen City Council, will get into parliament.
So the generational change the party has been longing for, seems to come true. However, with recounts and so on, seats could change again inside the party, but it looks like they will get a completely new start.

Pape, Abilgaard, Jarlov and Mercado... That is four solid right wingers. Who are the last two? Does Pape get a pure right wing group? That would make his political project much more realistic.

Mr. Stop Nazi-Islamism Naser Khader and Brian Mikkelsen. Khader certainly quite right-wing, and after his failures in the New Alliance in explaining economic policies, he seems like he has lost interest in that part. His campaign was very much focus on immigration and extremism.

While Khader has a maverick streak and is a bit unpredictable, that is clearly the most right wing Conservative group post-1929 and possibly since 1920. There are zero moderates in the Christmas-Moeller tradition, which would be the first time since Christmas-Moeller himself was elected back in 1920.
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politicus
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« Reply #497 on: June 22, 2015, 06:42:50 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2015, 06:53:26 PM by Charlotte Hebdo »

Oh great, another sh*tty election result.

Given the circumstances it is actually quite good for people like you. As noted above the reverse result would have been a disaster for the left.

This might very well be the ouverture for a Frederiksen goverment in 2016 with a weaker Radikale = a more classical SD line. Alternativet is a joker, but if you count them as somewhat leftist/green, this is not bad for the left. DPP won so big that they might be tempted/feel obliged to enter government, which is the safest way to break a right wing populist party - especially such a weak government.

The Thorning/Corydon axis was a guarantee for a all round quite right wing party, both on economics, immigration and civil rights/justice. It was only on the environment that this goverment was (moderately) leftist. If Thorning had stayed on with a decent election result this would have continued.

Thanks for the explanation, that's quite heartening actually.

When will the next SD Congress be held? And who are the leading candidates? Hopefully the next leader will be a left-winger.

It looks like it will be a coronation of Mette Frederiksen and it is hard to see a credible alternative (Corydon does not have the necessary support and Frederiksen and right wing leader Henrik Sass Larsen seems to have a mutual understanding of power sharing between the largest factions - so likely no challenge from his wing). She is the leader of the centrist faction (The Network), but a former left winger (once dubbed belonging to the Hugo Chavez faction of the party by her critics). She has been pragtmatic, but is clearly much closer to a traditional SD line than Thorning. So a move from the right to the center of the party. The actual left wing is rather weak and without a credible candidate right now.
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« Reply #498 on: June 22, 2015, 07:33:58 PM »

What actually leftish policies did the HTS government get through? All I've got so far from browsing the English media is:

Gay Marriage
Very ambitious climate/renewable policies
...Err

and to counterbalance:

restrictions on migration
sell-off of DONG
limitations on unemployment and pensions
cut on income tax to top bands
officially opposing the EU Financial Transaction Tax
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Hydera
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« Reply #499 on: June 22, 2015, 07:57:09 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2015, 08:06:09 PM by Hydera »

What actually leftish policies did the HTS government get through? All I've got so far from browsing the English media is:

Gay Marriage
Very ambitious climate/renewable policies
...Err

and to counterbalance:

restrictions on migration
sell-off of DONG
limitations on unemployment and pensions
cut on income tax to top bands
officially opposing the EU Financial Transaction Tax

During her time as PM. A lot of people on the left weren't happy about her doing deals with the DPP in exchange for tighter immigration restrictions to override opposition from the left of left of center parties on the red bloc when her party wrote budgets that didn't increase spending that much.

And even during the election campaign there was a lot of centre-right people that didn't like her party but appreciated her. I think they might start to regret this if it results in a more left-wing socialdemocratic party getting in power if they win the next or next next time...
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