Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015
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  Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015
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Author Topic: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015  (Read 109202 times)
Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #500 on: June 23, 2015, 02:15:46 AM »

It is obviously the best option for Venstre (never claimed otherwise), but at the end of the day the DPP is the party that decides. Loekke is in a weak position. He does not have much of a choice.

So far most observers have assumed that DPP would only go into government if they were stronger than the other three blue bloc parties and thereby able to get major influence on European policy. This time the Eurosceptic part of Blue Bloc is stronger than the Europhile, but DPP itself is still weaker than Lib/Con and LA is not a natural ally for DPP. Eurosceptics are a minority in the Folketing and the old parties (Venstre, SD, Radikale and Conservatives) are unlikely to want major changes to Danish EU policy. Being unambiguously pro-European is still seen as vital for corporate and agricultural Denmark and thereby also for Venstre.

If DPP stays out they are in a good position for the next election, if they join, they will almost certainly lose seats. That is the bottom line. They need big concessions for them to be worth it. Even then it seems like an unnecessary risk.

We obviously disagree on this one. ^^ I still say DPP will go into government, giving Venstre a more centre-right economic policy and gaining concessions on Europe.

We will see who are right in the coming days. Wink
If it turns out I'm right I'd just want to point out I predicted it already in January.


How big can DPP grow before it's just silly to stay as simple government support though? I'm sure they like governing from the Folketing benches (we all know government is hazardous for your health) where they can pretend to be the opposition while de facto being in power. But at some point if the DPP continues growing that will become ridiculous. Can there really be a minority government that is smaller in support than the parties in parliament that it relies on? 
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #501 on: June 23, 2015, 09:42:52 AM »

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Hydera
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« Reply #502 on: June 23, 2015, 12:13:07 PM »



Wow DPP supporters live near S supporters.... The case that a sigfinicant base of DPP supporters were former socialdemocrat voters keeps getting stronger.

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ingemann
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« Reply #503 on: June 23, 2015, 03:52:26 PM »



Wow DPP supporters live near S supporters.... The case that a sigfinicant base of DPP supporters were former socialdemocrat voters keeps getting stronger.

Yes but here's the things it's more complex than that.

Let's look at Rødovre election district. It's a traditional Social Democratic bastion where DPP more or less got a average result this time.

So let's look at the three big parties over several elections

2001: A 36,8(-5,6); O 15,3(+4,5); V 22,1(+8,0)
2005: A 33,3; O 16,7; V 19,5
2007: A 33,2; O 16,5; V 16,4
2011: A 31,4; O 14,3; V 18,4
2015: A 33,8; O 22,2; V 12,2

As you can see the fall in Social Democratic votes in a traditional working class suburb doesn't follow the growth of DPP. So while there's a lot of truth to it, it's not the whole truth.
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politicus
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« Reply #504 on: June 23, 2015, 05:23:58 PM »

It is obviously the best option for Venstre (never claimed otherwise), but at the end of the day the DPP is the party that decides. Loekke is in a weak position. He does not have much of a choice.

So far most observers have assumed that DPP would only go into government if they were stronger than the other three blue bloc parties and thereby able to get major influence on European policy. This time the Eurosceptic part of Blue Bloc is stronger than the Europhile, but DPP itself is still weaker than Lib/Con and LA is not a natural ally for DPP. Eurosceptics are a minority in the Folketing and the old parties (Venstre, SD, Radikale and Conservatives) are unlikely to want major changes to Danish EU policy. Being unambiguously pro-European is still seen as vital for corporate and agricultural Denmark and thereby also for Venstre.

If DPP stays out they are in a good position for the next election, if they join, they will almost certainly lose seats. That is the bottom line. They need big concessions for them to be worth it. Even then it seems like an unnecessary risk.

We obviously disagree on this one. ^^ I still say DPP will go into government, giving Venstre a more centre-right economic policy and gaining concessions on Europe.

We will see who are right in the coming days. Wink
If it turns out I'm right I'd just want to point out I predicted it already in January.


How big can DPP grow before it's just silly to stay as simple government support though? I'm sure they like governing from the Folketing benches (we all know government is hazardous for your health) where they can pretend to be the opposition while de facto being in power. But at some point if the DPP continues growing that will become ridiculous. Can there really be a minority government that is smaller in support than the parties in parliament that it relies on? 

I am not saying it wont happen, just that it will be a mistake by the DPP leadership - which I generally consider to be clever operators - and a surprise. In addition to the other things I have mentioned DPP depends on a large bloc of former SDs that can revert to the left if the government cuts too deep on welfare. On Europe such a government would likely frustrate both Europhiles in Venstre (risk of defections to Radikale) and DPP core supporters. It will be more fragile than a pure Venstre government.

DPP is under pressure to appear responsible, but if their long term aim is to become the biggest party in Denmark, they should pass this time.
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politicus
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« Reply #505 on: June 23, 2015, 05:59:40 PM »

One option that has been mentioned by DR political editior Jens Ringberg is worth noticing. A Liberal government with an announcement by LLR and Thulesen Dahl that it will be extended with DPP after a coming EU-referendum. This allows DPP to campaign freely without having a split government and appear responsible. At the same time DPP can hope for a collapse of the government and a new election before they actually have to take responsibility.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #506 on: June 23, 2015, 06:23:46 PM »

What EU referendum?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #507 on: June 23, 2015, 06:41:40 PM »
« Edited: June 23, 2015, 07:06:03 PM by Sibboleth »

Leading party within the City:

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Јas
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« Reply #508 on: June 24, 2015, 02:34:24 AM »


I presume this is in reference to:

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Danes ride euroskeptic wave as kingmaker party sticks to referendum line, Reuters, 19 June 2015
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« Reply #509 on: June 24, 2015, 03:58:05 AM »

Actually I think it may be a reference to referendums on whether the Danish government should maintain its opt-outs on several EU matters. They were agreed before the election.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #510 on: June 24, 2015, 05:16:27 AM »


I presume this is in reference to:

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Danes ride euroskeptic wave as kingmaker party sticks to referendum line, Reuters, 19 June 2015

So wait... is Denmark leaving the EU (Dexit?) a serious possibility? It seems too big an issue so surprising that this the first time I've heard of it. In the article it says 'EU Reform' hmmm... Any Danes wishing to comment?
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Diouf
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« Reply #511 on: June 24, 2015, 06:38:27 AM »

The already agreed upon referendum is on Denmark changing its opt-out on justice and home affairs to an opt-in. The EU-positive parties (Liberal, Conservative, Social Liberal, Social Democrat, SPP) have made an agreement on which policies Denmark will then opt-in on; these are basically on crime prevention with Europol as the big sell, but not anything to do with asylum. The referendum will be at the latest in the first quarter of 2016.

DPP then wants a whole bunch of other referendums. Together with the Liberal Alliance and the Red-Green Alliance they have said that they will unleash a referendum bonanza on EU. When sovereignty is ceded a referendum shall be held, unless a supermajority of 149 MPs vote in favour. However, According to the Danish constitution 60 MPs, which the three parties now have, can force a referendum on policy questions. This has only been used one time, in 1963 when the Liberals and the Conservatives forced a referendum on a number of unpopular land laws, which the public then rejected. Since then the normal system/government parties have agreed not to use it and let each other rule as it would create mayhem if the opposition forced referendums everytime they disagreed. The three Eurosceptic parties now want to use this clause to get through several EU referendums on issues where Denmark does not cede sovereignty, the first example being the banking union. However, some constitutional experts say that the clause cannot be used for questions regarding international cooperation, so its doubtful whether it will happen.

The DPP have mentioned several different things they want referendums on, and the exact form change a bit every time. Earlier they talked about a referendum on introducing a welfare opt-out, which would make Denmark decide on which welfare benefits other EU citizens should get. Since the welfare area is a part of David Camerons' negotiations, then it seems like the DPP basically just think it's easier, both to explain and in negotiations with the EU, to make an exact copy of the British referendum. DPP will campaign for staying in in such a referendum they say.

A referendum on Danish EU membership is very unlikely, and Denmark leaving the EU is even more unlikely. The EU-positive parties will never accept such a referendum, and I'm not even sure the Liberal Alliance will want one.
Only the Red-Green Alliance is in favour of leaving the EU, and even they usually keep quiet with it, probably because a significant part of their voters are not that Eurosceptic. A poll last year showed 68.7% in favour of staying in the EU, and 21.6% wanting to leave. A Brexit and/or a complete collapse of Greece might change the attitudes somewhat, but still big support for staying in. However, there is of course a deep dissatisfaction regarding the whole welfare benefits question, andDenmark would certainly vote yes to a welfare opt-out in the almost equally unlikely case such a referendum would ever be held. Most of the EU-positive parties, with the exception of the Social Liberals, wants changes to this anyway.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #512 on: June 24, 2015, 06:23:28 PM »





Note that the keys are the same as for the national maps (thus lmao Venstre). I will probably (possibly?) do some with city specific keys in the future.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #513 on: June 24, 2015, 06:46:18 PM »

It's hilarious how Left Copenhagen is...
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politicus
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« Reply #514 on: June 24, 2015, 10:06:25 PM »

Actually I think it may be a reference to referendums on whether the Danish government should maintain its opt-outs on several EU matters. They were agreed before the election.

Yes, sorry for being unclear.
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politicus
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« Reply #515 on: June 24, 2015, 10:14:12 PM »

It's hilarious how Left Copenhagen is...

Add Frederiksberg and Gentofte and this changes a bit, but yes. "Everybody in that city are Commies.." as it says in a 1950s show tune. Though we have gotten a small right wing enclave in the historically proletarian SW due to recent developing, which sorta spoils the map.
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politicus
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« Reply #516 on: June 24, 2015, 10:33:48 PM »
« Edited: June 24, 2015, 10:54:23 PM by Charlotte Hebdo »

On the parliamentarian situation for a DPP-Lib government and a Liberal solo government:

If DPP gets into government the two Greenlanders will be prepared to support a vote of no confidence. Greenlanders consider DPP (and especially their Deputy Chairman and spokesperson on Greenland Soeren Espersen) to be insensitive and neocolonialist. IA prefers not to vote on Danish issues and I doubt they would participate in toppling a Liberal government. Siumut has moved in the same direction in recent years despite their technical cooperation agreement with SD. Faroese Republic will likely stay neutral in both scenarios, they see their MPs role as ambassador for their country.

Radikale will be stuck in Red Bloc if DPP gets into government, but might pursue a more free agent role if the Liberals go solo (at least if the government survives its first year).

So DPP-Liberals will be a mere 90-88 for the government. One deserter from Liberals to Radikale (a new Bjorn Elmquist over civil rights issues or a hardcore Europhile) makes it a tie and two DPPs going Indie or making a mini-party (like Christian Hansen did with Fokus) will make it very unstable.

A Liberal government might be able to create a working relationship with Radikale on economics/welfare - making the situation more unclear. The baseline here is 90-86.

DPP has conducted a very thorough vetting process for new candidates this time (everyone has been interviewed by party leadership and went through extensive background check) to secure that they all tow the party line (and avoid nutters), but with that many new faces and the character of the party there are bound to be a couple of mavericks.
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politicus
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« Reply #517 on: June 25, 2015, 04:46:10 PM »

Update:

Mette Frederiksen constituted as temporary SD chairman, she will be formally elected on an extraordinary congress next week.


DPP says the current offer from LLR is not good enough for them to enter government. Thulesen Dahl mentions welfare and healthcare as the biggest hindrance. Looks like they are trying to get out of it.


Anders Samuelsen threatens not to support a government unless there are tax cuts for high income earners. This will be hard for DPP to swallow.
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politicus
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« Reply #518 on: June 25, 2015, 05:22:13 PM »

Poll shows 53% of Danes wants DPP in government (with very different motives likely)
32% prefer a pure LIbeeral government.
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Diouf
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« Reply #519 on: June 26, 2015, 02:44:07 PM »


The preferred government among voters:
Norstat poll for altinget.dk

Liberals - DPP 26 %
Social Democrats 16%
Social Democrats - Social Liberals - SPP 14%
Liberal - Conservative 13%
Social Democrat - Social Liberal 9%
Liberals 4 %
Don't know 17%

Ironically, the two least preferred government are the two most likely outcomes.

And the least preferred of those options ended up becoming reality. Lars Løkke Rasmussen has just announced that he will form a Liberal-only government.
This means that the government will have to conduct broad negotiations with several parties all the time. That the government only consists of the Liberals will make it more maneuverable though, as it will not need much internal discussion before negotiating.

There is much discussion about the stability of such a narrow government, and many point to the precedent of the 1973 Liberal government which only lasted 14 months. However, I don't see any of the three other blue bloc parties as willing to tear down the government, which the maverick Progress Party did in 1975 or as Geert Wilders did in the Netherlands. There was some discussion in the same way about the Red-Green Alliance, and despite many government policies they did not agree on, they never took it down. The Liberal Alliance has been very outspoken about not ending as the Red-Green Alliance, but I have a hard time seeing them follow through on it.
So if any party is to ensure the resignation of the government at some point, I think it will be the Liberals themselves deciding to do so. But I think that will take massive policy disappointments for that to happen. Also I think the Liberals will change their leader before the next election, which will probably not happen that quickly. If they look like getting a massive seat increase and stay in government, they could call an early election, but if it is too soon, it could look too opportunistic and irresponsible.
In regards to stability, the biggest problem is perhaps defections, and they are probably less likely with a narrow Liberal government than with a Liberal-DPP government, where a Liberal MP could have made the jump to the Social Liberals due to the harsh stance on the EU and refugees, MEP Jens Rohde would have been a good guess as well, or DPPs defecting to the Social Democrats due to less investments in the public sector than expected.

It will be interesting to see who become ministers in the coming days. Both in terms of the relationsship between Løkke and his deputy Kristian Jensen, and whether/how many ministers Løkke will pick from outside the Liberal group of MPs, perhaps even some of those who failed to get elected. The question is how big a role Jensen will get (Finance Minister or not?) and which and how many roles each of their supporters will get( for example whether Løkke supporter Søren Gade, who had a brilliant personal election, will be in the government and get a significant role). I would not completely rule out that there is a Blair/Brown agreement between Løkke and Jensen.
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politicus
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« Reply #520 on: June 26, 2015, 06:30:19 PM »

Things turned out as I expected.

Well played by DPP, I think, they got to look responsible and avoided getting responsibility at the same time.

The most interesting now is how Radikale will react. Will they stay in Red Bloc or try a freer role.

Venstre will need either DPP or SD to form a majority and they can not afford to alienate DPP, so DPP will still wield great influence. It is difficult to see how Venstre can satisfy LA (and their own more ideological members) in this scenario.

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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #521 on: June 27, 2015, 07:18:07 AM »

Things turned out as I expected.

Well played by DPP, I think, they got to look responsible and avoided getting responsibility at the same time.

Credit where credit is due. I should never have doubted you.

Still, i really think Lökke allowed them to win to easy. If I were in his clothes I would have returned tio the Queen and told her that I wasn't able to form a stable alternative and suggeste her to appoint Thulesen Dahl as royal researcher. 
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #522 on: June 27, 2015, 07:19:47 AM »

So the next Danish government will only have the support of the party that came in third? That just seems wrong.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #523 on: June 27, 2015, 07:29:21 AM »

So, when Venstre is as good as wiped out at the next election, who will benefit? Liberal Annoyance?
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Diouf
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« Reply #524 on: June 27, 2015, 07:44:19 AM »

So the next Danish government will only have the support of the party that came in third? That just seems wrong.

The next Danish government will only consist of the party that came in third. It will have the support of a majority in parliament.
It is basically the result of the bloc idea where the parties unite around two different PM candidates. So even when the results then change the bloc dynamic significantly, you have to stick to that promise. Also with Conservative and Liberal Alliance support, the Løkke part of the Blue Bloc is bigger than the Thulelsen Dahl part. You can't rule out that there will be three PM candidates the next time; perhaps the Blue Bloc wil simply state that the leader of the biggest party in the bloc will form the government. The Liberals will obviously prefer that not to happen, but it is basically the decision of the Conservatives and the Liberal Alliance whether to allow it.

It does look weird with the third party, who lost the most seats, in charge, but at the end of the day, the situation is not really different from a scenario with the Liberals on 37 and the DPP on 34. The Liberals will still have been the big loser, and would still have to work hard to find a majority for each of its proposals.
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