Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

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the special rule which means that foreigners (i.e. Germans) can't buy our summer cottages.

Don't be silly, us Norwegians will buy some too

What will LLR's future be if the center-right fail to win this election?

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Final prediction:
A 25,6%
V 20,9%
O 17,2%
Ø 8,2%
I 7,7%
F 5,7%
B 5,3%
Å 4,6%
C 3,5%
K 1,1%

Red block 90 seats
Blue block 89 seats

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The Sand Depository's TV channels are working in Norway.

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Actually Metroxpress has just published their first exit poll: http://www.mx.dk/nyheder/danmark/story/15713210

2 126 respondents asked from 9.10 to 15.30

Narrow Red Bloc win (90-89) if North Atlantic polls go as expected

An exit poll based on 45% turnout (15:30) is not really useful, considering final turnout will be 87%.

Would not that work even more to the advantage of the Reds since the working class will be voting later in the day due to their work schedule?

It might as well work the other way around. People with jobs can't vote during the day, so they only go to the polling booth in the evening.

Don't know how it is in Denmark, but here in Austria the "working class" is actually solidly right-wing (strongly FPÖ and ÖVP, and to some extent strong Green with the white-collars). It's the unemployed and retired and students who are the left-wingers in Austria, and who are voting strongly SPÖ (unemployed & retired) and Greens (students).

The "working class" is by definition not white-collar. "Working class" =/= people who work.

Um, there are working class white collar jobs. "Working class" =/= physical work.

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With 0.9% of votes counted, blue block is still leading 65% to 35%!

The first DR prognosis based on the first 0.6% of votes predicts blue team to win 92-83, shockingly different from their own exit poll. According to it, Liberals and DPP have basically the same number of parliamentarians.

For crying out loud, there is NOTHING about this first percent that makes it worthwhile to use exclamation points. If it's still 92-83 in two hours or so, we can use all the exclamation points we want.

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The Danish posters will say it is impossible that DPP will even be in the government, but let's be honest... It's not reasonable for the third largest party, that has just gotten clobbered to form government on their own. It would be suicide for Venstre to alone bear the burden of government, and LLR should insist to have DPP in the cabinet.

They won't have to govern on their own. They could include Liberal Alliance and possibly the Conservatives as well.

That would be the traditional way of doing things (probably just with the Conservatives in that case), but it would still be an incredibly weak government. DF would probably exert more influence outside government if this came to be.

There is precedent for a clobbered Venstre to form government, but that government lasted barely a year - Poul Hartling from Dec 73 to Jan 75.

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Reminds me of the Styrian state election, just with small differences.

What's the chance that if DPP ends up ahead of V, that A and V end up in a grand coalition with some smaller party as stirrup, to prevent a DPP-led government ? Maybe if V plays it right, even with V getting the prime minister, despite only being third ? By playing their cards right they could pressure A into giving up the PM post ...

Grand coalitions between social democrats and the largest establishment center-right party are a Austro-German phenomenon. I would agree that another right-wing minority coalition is the most probable option. If Dansk Folkeparti can stay out of government, they've gotten themselves into the golden position.

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What I think will actually be the hardest part of government negotiations is often overlooked - economic policy. DF are strong supporters of the welfare state in its present form, while Venstre want a freeze in growth of public expenditure. Venstre, Liberal Alliance and Konservative want further economic reforms, DF does not.

Would the other right wing parties back a DPP government.

No. And DF themselves have ruled that out.

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As I see it, the most likely options at the moment:

(For those unfamiliar with Danish party letters: V = Liberals, O = DPP, I = Liberal Alliance, K = Conservatives)

1. VOIK
2. VIK
3. VK
4. V
5. VO
6. VOI
7. VOK

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Could Helle and Lars Løkke get their speeches over with already? I need a toilet break.

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So why isn't a DPP-led government considered possible?

Nobody wants it, not even the party themselves. It hasn't happened that a "fringe" (read: non-center) party takes the premiership in a Scandinavian country since the pioneering Social Democratic governments in the 1920s.

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So in Denmark Proper it is 90-85 Blues.  But TV2 seems to indicate that Reds won all 4 seats in Faroe Islands and Greenland so it is 90-89 for Blues.  Is this true? What happen to the Union Party in Faroe Islands ?

All media are reporting this, so it would appear to be true. Been wondering about the same thing, apparently the Republicans picked up a seat out of nowhere in the Faroes. Most of the reports for the past couple days have been about the Social Democrats possibly losing their seat, but they held on to it comfortably.

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So despite topping the poll and increasing her vote share, she ends up resigning. That seems non-sensical to me.

She's been party leader for a decade, and the majority of that time has been in opposition. She may simply not be in the mood for another period leading the party out of government. HTS has always struck me as less of a party manager.

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This map really tells an important part of the story. Last time around, a bunch of the smaller cities like Randers and Esbjerg were colored red. At this point, it's only Copenhagen+western suburbs, Århus, Odense and half of Aalborg, plus a couple random rural municipalities.

Obviously, the Social Democrats did well in most of these places, but it seems that their coalition partners really collapsed in mid-sized Denmark.

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Danish posters: do you think this parliament can last a full term?

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Isn't Aalborg a big student city? Would think the left-wing vote would be greater there.

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Svendborg is not rural, but the second largest town on Fyn and Lolland - with Nakskov - is far from random, but the reddest (and poorest) area in Denmark.

Noted - Fyn is kind of a blind spot in my geographic knowledge (I'm sure a lot of Danes can relate), but I should have figured out Lolland and Falster.