Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

[DavidB.]

Will the terrorist attacks from last weekend have political consequences, for instance a "rally round the flag"-effect which will benefit the left bloc and SD or a DF surge because of anti-Islam sentiments?

[DavidB.]

I'm curious: are there any Voting Compasses? Curious whether I'd get V, O, or I.

By the way, many thanks for all your contributions, Charlotte Hebdo. Really interesting.

[DavidB.]

I'm curious: are there any Voting Compasses? Curious whether I'd get V, O, or I.

By the way, many thanks for all your contributions, Charlotte Hebdo. Really interesting.

Most of the tests are for candidates, not parties, although the answers from same party candidates are probably very similar.

http://politik.tv2.dk/valg2015/kandidattest

Here is one for TV2, I will try to translate

First of you need to pick the two most important topics for you. They are:
Employment, hospitals and health, refugees and immigrants
Social policy, education, the elderly, taxation, economy
Children and youth, foreign and defense policy, law and order
Environment and climate, EU, animal welfare

Then there's 18 statements where you can answer:
Completely disagree, partly disagree, neither nor, partly agree, completely agree

The actual statements are:
There should be more employees in the public sector
It is neccessary to introduce user fees in more areas of the health sector
The Danish immigration and refugee policy is too tight
Too many people stay on benefits because the benefits are too high
There is too much focus on tests in the Danish schools
In the long term it will be necessary to introduce user fees in areas of the elderly care
The top tax bracket should stay
The Danish salaries are so high that they damage the Danish economy
There should be more economic support for families with children
Denmark should be less active in international military operations
The sentences should be longer for violent crimes
The green taxes for companies should be increased
Denmark has given up too much power to the EU
It should be made more beneficial to go from traditional farming to ecological farming.
It should be easier to expel foreigners which have commited crimes
There should be more differentation in the immigration system, so people from some countries get an easier access than others.
It requires more investments in the public sector to strengthen the economy
If conditions are made better for the private sector, then it will help our competitiveness and the economy overall

Then you have to state which party you voted for at the last election

Whether you are male (mand) or female (kvinde)

Your age

And where you live. If you want to see the candidates from my pictures, then choose Aarhus Kommune. But there are 97 others to choose from

d
Wow, many thanks for this!

Although I think I got 2 different questions, probably because I selected the EU as something important. The questions are "Danmark bør afskaffe retsforbeholdet i næste valgperiode" and "Tyrkiet skal på sigt kunne komme med i EU", I guess the first question relates to the opt-outs that Denmark has with regard to the euro and immigration while the second one is about Turkey entering the EU (as if that would happen).

My result for Aarhus: 5 I candidates (82%, 81%), a V candidate and an O candidate (80%) and then a whole bunch of candidates from V, C, I and O until 75%, lol. Doesn't seem to give a clear result, but that's exactly what I expected. Party results at the end of the page: I 83%, C 78%, O 76%, V 74%.

[DavidB.]

Wow, many thanks for this!

Although I think I got 2 different questions, probably because I selected the EU as something important. The questions are "Danmark bør afskaffe retsforbeholdet i næste valgperiode" and "Tyrkiet skal på sigt kunne komme med i EU", I guess the first question relates to the opt-outs that Denmark has with regard to the euro and immigration while the second one is about Turkey entering the EU (as if that would happen).

My result for Aarhus: 5 I candidates (82%, 81%), a V candidate and an O candidate (80%) and then a whole bunch of candidates from V, C, I and O until 75%, lol. Doesn't seem to give a clear result, but that's exactly what I expected. Party results at the end of the page: I 83%, C 78%, O 76%, V 74%.

Sorry, I didn't realize the questions actually changed. I chose immigration and economy as I think those two, along with health, usually tops the charts.
The first statement you got was that Denmark should remove its opt-out on justice and home affairs, which will be voted on in late 2015 or early 2016. The second is in the long term Turkey should be able to join the EU, and yes not a very relevant question at the moment.

Thanks!

[DavidB.]

My result was:

Liberal Alliance 83%
Conservative 78%
DPP 76%
Liberal 74%
Christian Democrats 58%
Social Democrats 48%
Radikale Venstre 35%
Alternativet 33%
Enhedslisten 31%
SPP 29%

Would probably vote DPP though.

[DavidB.]

Actually Metroxpress has just published their first exit poll: http://www.mx.dk/nyheder/danmark/story/15713210

2 126 respondents asked from 9.10 to 15.30

Narrow Red Bloc win (90-89) if North Atlantic polls go as expected

An exit poll based on 45% turnout (15:30) is not really useful, considering final turnout will be 87%.

Would not that work even more to the advantage of the Reds since the working class will be voting later in the day due to their work schedule?

It might as well work the other way around. People with jobs can't vote during the day, so they only go to the polling booth in the evening.

[DavidB.]

Actually Metroxpress has just published their first exit poll: http://www.mx.dk/nyheder/danmark/story/15713210

2 126 respondents asked from 9.10 to 15.30

Narrow Red Bloc win (90-89) if North Atlantic polls go as expected

An exit poll based on 45% turnout (15:30) is not really useful, considering final turnout will be 87%.

Would not that work even more to the advantage of the Reds since the working class will be voting later in the day due to their work schedule?

It might as well work the other way around. People with jobs can't vote during the day, so they only go to the polling booth in the evening.

Don't know how it is in Denmark, but here in Austria the "working class" is actually solidly right-wing (strongly FPÖ and ÖVP, and to some extent strong Green with the white-collars). It's the unemployed and retired and students who are the left-wingers in Austria, and who are voting strongly SPÖ (unemployed & retired) and Greens (students).

The "working class" is by definition not white-collar. "Working class" =/= people who work.

[DavidB.]

Anyway in Denmark the two parties with the most obviously working class voter profile (however defined) are the SDs and the DPP (although both, of course, attract votes from other sources). Other parties (whatever the camp) tend to have a more affluent* profile. I generalise greatly of course.

I agree. It's exactly the same in Norway. Just the "NPP" is called Progress Party instead.

It's even more obvious here in Austria: In the 1970s under Kreisky, 70-80% of blue-collar factory workers voted SPÖ.

In the Styria state election 3 weeks ago, exit polls showed that blue-collar workers voted 61% FPÖ and 18% SPÖ.

Now that's some swing ...

Same in the Netherlands, with PVV and Socialist Party getting >50% of blue-collar votes.

[DavidB.]

Exit poll DR:
SD 25,7%
Lib 20,2%
DPP 18,5%
LA 8,2%
Red-Green 7,8%
Radikale 5,2%
SF 5%
Alternativet 4,9%
Con 3,3%

Blue 89, Red 86

[DavidB.]

New prognosis: blue 92 seats, red 83.

[DavidB.]

Really can't say anything about this yet, but I have a strong feeling that DPP's strength has been greatly underestimated.

[DavidB.]

Seems like the right pulled a Netanyahu/Cameron and outperformed the polls, with the important difference that Venstre has actually lost big time in terms of votes and seats.

[DavidB.]

The Danish posters will say it is impossible that DPP will even be in the government, but let's be honest... It's not reasonable for the third largest party, that has just gotten clobbered to form government on their own. It would be suicide for Venstre to alone bear the burden of government, and LLR should insist to have DPP in the cabinet.

They won't have to govern on their own. They could include Liberal Alliance and possibly the Conservatives as well.

[DavidB.]

The Danish posters will say it is impossible that DPP will even be in the government, but let's be honest... It's not reasonable for the third largest party, that has just gotten clobbered to form government on their own. It would be suicide for Venstre to alone bear the burden of government, and LLR should insist to have DPP in the cabinet.

They won't have to govern on their own. They could include Liberal Alliance and possibly the Conservatives as well.

That would be the traditional way of doing things (probably just with the Conservatives in that case), but it would still be an incredibly weak government. DF would probably exert more influence outside government if this came to be.

There is precedent for a clobbered Venstre to form government, but that government lasted barely a year - Poul Hartling from Dec 73 to Jan 75.

I know. This isn't exactly the ideal scenario for Venstre, or for the right...

[DavidB.]

New prognosis: 96-79. This is only getting better and better.

[DavidB.]

So...is there any chance whatsoever of the DPP taking over the reins?

Fat chance, even with these results.

[DavidB.]

Reminds me of the Styrian state election, just with small differences.

What's the chance that if DPP ends up ahead of V, that A and V end up in a grand coalition with some smaller party as stirrup, to prevent a DPP-led government ? Maybe if V plays it right, even with V getting the prime minister, despite only being third ? By playing their cards right they could pressure A into giving up the PM post ...

DPP ahead of V: this is probably going to happen.
A and V: can't see this happening, this will really kill V.

A right-wing minority coalition with DPP support remains the most probable option.

[DavidB.]

I would've voted DPP, but I'm not that happy with Venstre coming third - it will only make government formation harder.

[DavidB.]

What are the differences between The Alternative and the Red-Greens?

[DavidB.]

Electoral churn is even more complicated in Denmark than in most places (ah fragmented party systems, don't you love them), but I'd advise you to look at where the DPP gained the most. Looks to me as if there was a hell of a lot of direct Venstre to DPP switching going on...

This, especially in Jylland.

[DavidB.]

Thanks for all the info, Diouf!

[DavidB.]

What are the differences between The Alternative and the Red-Greens?

If I'm right and I've understood things the right way, The Alternative is mainly a green party very similar to green parties in the rest of Europe, though probably slightly to the left of most other green parties as they've suggested a 30 hour labour week for instance. The Red-Greens however is to the left of Socialistic Left, which is already very leftish, so it's pretty much the most radical party of all. I hope I'm right though, as I'm far from an expert on Danish politics.

What are the differences between The Alternative and the Red-Greens?

If I'm right and I've understood things the right way, The Alternative is mainly a green party very similar to green parties in the rest of Europe, though probably slightly to the left of most other green parties as they've suggested a 30 hour labour week for instance. The Red-Greens however is to the left of Socialistic Left, which is already very leftish, so it's pretty much the most radical party of all. I hope I'm right though, as I'm far from an expert on Danish politics.

Pretty much correct. Basically, you could just say that the emphasis and rhetoric of the parties are very different. The Alternative talks mostly about sustainability, green entrepreneurship and "new politics" and their leader has said that he does not consider himself a socialist. The Red-Green Alliance members do definitely consider themselves socialist, and is basically a classic class struggle party which talks about social dumping, better conditions for the workers and the unemployed etc.
The room for a specific green party has been there for somewhile; we also speculated whether some of the SPP members would create such a party in the chaos when they left the government. In this election, the SPP has focused a lot on unemployent benefits and somewhat less on environment and climate, which has left the field open for the Alternative.

Thanks for your answers! This was already what I thought, but what would be the difference in terms of electorate? Alternativet attracting more hipsters and yuppies while Red-Greens targeting immigrants and poorer people? Even for me as a Dutchman, it looks like there are too many parties on the left of the Social Democrats. Which is probably one of the reasons that SF lost this badly.

[DavidB.]

I'm still not really sure what government will come out of this. Lars Løkke Rasmussen was careful to say that he had "the possibility to form a government", but that it should be a government that took the direction he wanted. The complete opposite of HTS in 2011, when she acted like a rock star and talked only about the win, failing to mention that the Social Liberals' success at that election meant that it would be very difficult for her to get her programme through.

As it has been mentioned in the thread, the DPP has not really wanted to get into government before, and is not at all demanding to be there now. If they enter government, it will be difficult for them to avoid significant losses, and they are probably looking quite a lot at what has happened in Norway. They could lose votes back to the Social Democrats if the investments in the public sector will not be as big as they promised, they could lose votes back to the Liberals who could get a PM boost and might have more competent ministers, and finally, I think there's a big chance that it's right wing could fall to a new party, which can attack it on its too lenient attitudes to the EU and immigration in government. The Danish Unity could do this. Of course, it could be said that these risks are almost equally present if they stay outside the government.

There are a number of good things about being in a government, but Thulelsen Dahl has mentioned the failures of the SPP so many times. He don't want to repeat them, so he's fully aware of the dangers.
I really don't know what to expect. Maybe still a Liberal-only government like in 1973, but it does seem strange to stay out of government after a such a good result. I probably hope for a pure Liberal government, and it still is a relatively likely option, I think.

It looks like the Liberals will only get four seats in Eastern Jutland, so Fatma Øktem will unfortunately, probably have difficulties in getting in.

What about a V-I government? I can imagine that C desperately needs some time in opposition, it really needs to reinvent itself (this time without stupid slogans like "nazi islamisme", pretty please?), but isn't I ready to govern?

[DavidB.]

Will there be official "toleration deals" with Liberal Alliance and the Conservatives in order for them to support the government on the most important issues?

[DavidB.]

Thanks for the updates! That went pretty quickly.