Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

How early in advance does a PM usually call the election? A few weeks in advance or a few months?

HTS should call the election on March 22nd, and we could have an epic Sweden vs. Denmark election battle.    

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Also a bit anonymous types; only Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen has personal charisma (though on a board where Göran Persson qualifies as charismatic I suppose  Helle T. and Thulesen could qualify as well )

Swedes prefer their politicians boring and bland, so you should by no means use our standard of charisma.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Swedes prefer their politicians boring and bland, so you should by no means use our standard of charisma.

Olaf Palme wasn't so boring...

Yes and that is why he was defeated twice by this man. Swedes want their Prime Minister to be boring.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Yes, but a DPP in government long enough could give way for something to emerge on its right, pretty much like AfD is doing for CDU/CSU right now.

Clearly and it could IMO also develop while they are in opposition, but would be very marginal. I see a 2-4% fringe party (dependent on how radical it became).

DPP is unlikely to enter government because 1) they don't want to lose their free rider status (and have seen what government did to SPP) 2) they could never agree with the Liberas on a common EU policy. Basically DPP will only get into government if they are significantly stronger than the three other blue bloc parties combined and can dictate EU (and immigration) policy to the others and this is completely unrealistic at the moment. You need a whole new balance of power with something like DPP 30%, Liberals 18%, Conservatives 3%, Liberal Alliance 4%.

How big can DPP grow before it's just silly to stay as simple government support though? I'm sure they like governing from the Folketing benches (we all know government is hazardous for your health) where they can pretend to be the opposition while de facto being in power. But at some point if the DPP continues growing that will become ridiculous. Can there really be a minority government that is smaller in support than the parties in parliament that it relies on? 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

If Alternativet receives 1,9% (under the 2% threshold for parliamentary representation) of the votes in the election, their votes would indirectly benefit the Danish Peoples party and the blue bloc just as the Feminist Initiative party indirectly benefited the Sweden Democrats by only receiving 3,1% (which was under the 4% threshold in Sweden). Morten Messerschmidt of the DPP and Simon Emil Amitzböll of the Liberal Alliance encouraged their followers on Facebook and Twitter to help Alternativet get on the ballots.

Not going to happen. Uffe Elbæk is no Gudrun Schyman.

It should also be noted that Feminist Initiative had eight years in the wilderness before actually going somewhere, and their first two elections they didn't come close to hitting 1% even with Schyman at the steering wheel. So I agree with politicus on this matter.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Blue Bloc has presented a joint proposal of lowering the age of criminal responsibility from 15 to 12 and introducing Child and Youth Courts.

*Throws up a bit in my mouth*

Denmark why do you do this to me? I like you Denmark! Why do all your parties have to be either  socialists, annoying feel-good hipsters or wanna-be Texas Republicans? (I count Helle and her followers as wanna-be Republicans) 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Blue Bloc has presented a joint proposal of lowering the age of criminal responsibility from 15 to 12 and introducing Child and Youth Courts.

*Throws up a bit in my mouth*

Denmark why do you do this to me? I like you Denmark! Why do all your parties have to be either  socialists, annoying feel-good hipsters or wanna-be Texas Republicans? (I count Helle and her followers as wanna-be Republicans) 

Well, Mr. Hyperbole Texas Republicans are hardly the inspiration for anyone here. Ron Paul is the only Texan that ever inspired any Danish politicians and only the radical wing of Liberal Alliance.

Whether they're inspired by them or not is besides the point. Lowering the age of criminal responsibility is exactly the sort  of populist, unscientific, and reactionary social conservatism I'd expect from Texas Republicans, not from supposedly liberal European parties like Venstre and LA, or for that sake, Social Democratic parties.

And if that's hyperboling according to you, I'll hyberbole with pride.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Surely, if Lars Lökke Rasmussen fails to win this time, he'll be gone for real as Venstre leader? Who would be the favoured candidates to succeed him as leader?     

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I'm really uncertain who I'd vote for in this election out of Radikale, Konservative, and Liberal Alliance.

Radikale is the party that is closest to me, but I do really dislike Thoring-Schmidt's government. On the other hand, the option isn't much better... 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

As much as you would hate it you might fit the Christian Democrats best..

Don't be silly, if I had a vote I wouldn't waste it on a party that won't even break 1%

Hmm, I didn't know LA is sort of eurosceptic. How Eurosceptic are they exactly? What their opinion on the retsforbeholdet for example?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Live streams for the two main channels. I obviously can't check whether they work outside Denmark.

DR: http://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/valg2015/live/live.htm

TV2: http://play.tv2.dk/live/tv-2-news/#tv-2-news?icid=TV%202%20PLAY:big

It's working in East Denmark.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Actually Metroxpress has just published their first exit poll: http://www.mx.dk/nyheder/danmark/story/15713210

2 126 respondents asked from 9.10 to 15.30

Narrow Red Bloc win (90-89) if North Atlantic polls go as expected

An exit poll based on 45% turnout (15:30) is not really useful, considering final turnout will be 87%.

Would not that work even more to the advantage of the Reds since the working class will be voting later in the day due to their work schedule?

No.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Would you stop arguing about class!

Exit poll says Blue with smallest possible margin.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Assuming Helle prevails tonight, how likely is she to ditch Radikale from the government with a result like this?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The Danish posters will say it is impossible that DPP will even be in the government, but let's be honest... It's not reasonable for the third largest party, that has just gotten clobbered to form government on their own. It would be suicide for Venstre to alone bear the burden of government, and LLR should insist to have DPP in the cabinet.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

There is precedent for a clobbered Venstre to form government, but that government lasted barely a year - Poul Hartling from Dec 73 to Jan 75.

That is an entirely meaningless precedent. Politically, 1973 might as well have been an entirely different era. If you go back far enough you can find precedent for everything.

The point is that if Venstre go into government on their own with DPP being allowed to wave the populist flag on the sideline, taking no responsibility, in four years time Venstre will be annihilated, while DPP will continue to grow. Now DPP know this, which is why they are uneasy to enter into government, but what what everyone seems to assume for some reason, is that Venstre doesn't know this, which is silly.

 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So...is there any chance whatsoever of the DPP taking over the reins?

Is it likely? No, even with this result it is very unlikely...

   ...but there is a small (very small) possibility.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

DR has been interviewing DPP politicians, and they are not entirely closing the door on government... Pia Kjearsgaard said we should all wait out the final results before venturing into that sort of speculation.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

When pressured, Thulesen Dahl doesn't want to entirely rule out participating in government either. He is simply saying that the party will place itself where they'll get the most political influence... which could mean everything.   

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I believe it'll be either VO, or VOI. But it really can end up anyway I think.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

It is between a Liberal minority government and a Liberal-DPP coalition. The first option is the logical - unless Thulesen-Dahl has lost his cool. I was very surprised DPP even brought up getting into government in the first place.

Thulesen-Dahl has said that the party should be were it will be able to have the greatest influence, has he not? Let's face it, on immigration DPP will hold the sway no matter if they're in or out of this government, however on other areas, most notebly the European Union, it is entierly possible, not to say likely, that a pure Venstre government would run a very pro-European policy with support from across the aisle. If DPP is in the government however they can make sure that Denmark is a close ally to Cameron in the re-negotiations of the EU-terms, and thereby curb intra-EU migration.

On the same time, Lars Lökke has all the reason to want the DPP inside his government. I think your analysis too often assume that Lökke is some docile idiot, and not the sharp ruthless and mean politician he actually is. With a strong coalition partner in the government he will have someone to share the blame with, and since voters always finds a reason to be cross with the government, it is most important as a party to not stand alone in government, especially when your party is already weak.       

In a coalition Lökke would also be able to trade concessions from Venstre on Europe for a more centre-right economic policy, which would please the Liberal Alliance and the Conservatives. Everybody wins, and the blue bloc gets the most stable government they could out of this unstable election result.

That is why the Venstre-DPP coalition is actually the most logical solution.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

It is obviously the best option for Venstre (never claimed otherwise), but at the end of the day the DPP is the party that decides. Loekke is in a weak position. He does not have much of a choice.

So far most observers have assumed that DPP would only go into government if they were stronger than the other three blue bloc parties and thereby able to get major influence on European policy. This time the Eurosceptic part of Blue Bloc is stronger than the Europhile, but DPP itself is still weaker than Lib/Con and LA is not a natural ally for DPP. Eurosceptics are a minority in the Folketing and the old parties (Venstre, SD, Radikale and Conservatives) are unlikely to want major changes to Danish EU policy. Being unambiguously pro-European is still seen as vital for corporate and agricultural Denmark and thereby also for Venstre.

If DPP stays out they are in a good position for the next election, if they join, they will almost certainly lose seats. That is the bottom line. They need big concessions for them to be worth it. Even then it seems like an unnecessary risk.

We obviously disagree on this one. ^^ I still say DPP will go into government, giving Venstre a more centre-right economic policy and gaining concessions on Europe.

We will see who are right in the coming days.
If it turns out I'm right I'd just want to point out I predicted it already in January.

How big can DPP grow before it's just silly to stay as simple government support though? I'm sure they like governing from the Folketing benches (we all know government is hazardous for your health) where they can pretend to be the opposition while de facto being in power. But at some point if the DPP continues growing that will become ridiculous. Can there really be a minority government that is smaller in support than the parties in parliament that it relies on? 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Things turned out as I expected.

Well played by DPP, I think, they got to look responsible and avoided getting responsibility at the same time.

Credit where credit is due. I should never have doubted you.

Still, i really think Lökke allowed them to win to easy. If I were in his clothes I would have returned tio the Queen and told her that I wasn't able to form a stable alternative and suggeste her to appoint Thulesen Dahl as royal researcher.