Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

[rosin]

Thought I might as well repost this one here.

Which area do you think is the most important one, the one politicians should focus on?

Unemployment
Immigration
Economy
Health
Environment/Climate
Education
Taxation
None of the above/don't know

I assume this is broken down by voter intention? So it will be reliable for A, V and O. O supporters are remarkably concentrated on immigration for such a popular party. Judging by the party support figures from Voxmeter, O has over half the voters concerned with immigration, and V has another quarter.

Going down to the smaller parties, it looks like F voters don't really care much about the environment; environmentalists seem far more likely to vote for Ø. Apart from education, they lack an issue that gives them a special base, as does C. I has a good low-tax niche that at least gives it a committed, if small, social base. Hard to say anything meaningful about B.

Keep in mind, that this chart only shows the SINGLE most preferred issue for the voters. That might explain the seemingly low environmental concern among SF's voters - they are simply more concerned about unemployment, which gives us the very high 39% primary focus on that subject. I would still (personally) think, that if all the issues in the list should be ranked by the party's voters, the environment would get higher ranked than issues like health or education.

[rosin]

The new party Alternativet ("the Alternative") led by former cultural minister Uffe Elbæk now claims to have collected enough signatures to be on the ballots at the upcoming Folketing elections.

Link (in Danish)http://www.dr.dk/Nyheder/Politik/2015/02/23/143958.htm

[rosin]

Former Liberal MEP, serial entrepreneur (and serial bankrupter) and financial speculator Klaus Riskær Petersen (59) has announced he will try to get a place on Alternativets candidate list. Riskær is convicted for various forms of economic crimes, but has managed several comebacks in the business world. Now it looks like he will attempt a political comeback as well.

Wow, it would be an absolute disaster for Alternativet, if he came on the ballots. I can't say if he has changed his life, but in the eyes of the great public, Riskjær (with the nickname Risikokær = risk loving) is still the exponent of untamed capitalism (and a few dirty tricks, if that gives money). Not the type of candidate Alternativet needs.

[rosin]

In a new poll by Megafon, V is bleeding voters to (mainly) S and DF (V is 4,7 %-points down since last month's poll, while  S is 2 %-points up and DF is 1,7 %-points up since last month), while Alternativet is exactly hitting the 2%-threshold of representation. Even with this infusion of votes, red bloc (including Alternativet) only counts 48% of the (represented) votes in total, which primarily is because R (the social liberals) lose 1,8 %-points. Except V and R, all parties of the Folketing gain votes.

Full results:



This combined with that red bloc is very likely to win both Greenlandic seats makes the race rather close, although it would be interesting to see what would happen if the government had to rely on votes from Alternativet.

[rosin]

Polls have shown the race significantly tightening.

Epinion for DR:

This will most likely become 86 seats for red bloc and 89 for blue.

Megafon for Politiken and TV 2:

POLITISK INDEKS

Socialdemokraterne: 25,2 pct. (44 seats)
Radikale Venstre: 6,1 pct. (11)
Det Konservative Folkeparti: 4,6 pct. (8 )
Socialistisk Folkeparti: 6,9 pct. (12)
Liberal Alliance: 6,8 pct. (12)
Kristendemokraterne: 0,5 pct. (0)
Dansk Folkeparti: 19,8 pct. (35)
Venstre: 19,7 pct. (34)
Enhedslisten: 7,8 pct. (14)
Alternativet: 2,5 (5)
Blå blok: 51,2 pct. (89)
Rød blok: 48,8 pct. (86)
Målingen er foretaget 29. til 30. maj.
Spørgsmål: Hvilket part ville du stemme på, hvis der var folketingsvalg i morgen?
Respondenter: 1.001
Statistisk usikkerhed: Op til +/- 3 procentpoint

Greens for Børsen:

S: 24,5% (43 seats)
R: 5,5% (10)
SF: 6,8% (12)
EL: 10,2% (18)
Alt: 2,4% (4)

Red bloc combined: 49,4% / 87 seats

V: 20,1% (35)
DF: 19,6% (35)
K: 3,8% (7)
LA: 6,2% (11)
(KD: 0,9% (0))

Blue bloc combined: 49,7% (not counting the vote for KD) / 88 seats

Voxmeter for Ritzau:

The grey columns are the results of last election, the white ones are previous polls, and the green ones are the results of the newest poll and the statistical uncertainity of the results
Totally this is 48,0% for the red bloc (+ 1,9% for Alternativet) and 49,8% for the blue bloc.
In seats, it is 87 for red and 88 for blue (but this is with Alternativet below the threshold)

For all the polls, remember that most likely the North Atlantic seats (which are not included in the polls' numbers)will be distributeted 3-1 in favor of red bloc, so at this point, all the polls are showing a statistical tie.