Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

[ingemann]

As for the National Party I think it's unlikely to do well, it suffer from several problem.

Many immigrants don't have citizenship and can't vote, the low turnout from immigrants with citizenship and at last the core in party are Pakistani Ahmadiyyas.

Pakistani really don't have a good reputation among other immigrant groups as politicians, because of their tradition for clientism in Danish politics. The fact that most Muslims also see Ahmadiyya as the worst kind of heretics doesn't help either.

[ingemann]

http://politik.tv2.dk/2015-01-30-grafik-hvor-kommer-dfs-mange-nye-vaelgere-egentlig-fra#RV

At the bottom of this page is a helpful tool to see how voters have moved since the 2011 election.

The remaining 4% from non-voters?

DPP getting more voters from the Liberals than SD begs the question how many voters the Liberals are getting directly from SD. At the moment there seem to be more voters going directly from SD to Venstre than SD to DPP.

Otherwise it is hardly surprising that SD and Venstre are the main contributors. For most ordinary non-academic/teacher, non-affluent Danes there are generally only three relevant parties: SD, Venstre and DPP. Especially outside Greater Copenhagen. Even social clients tend to vote SD, DPP and Venstre and not left wing (as some right wing pundits want us to believe).
So DPP would naturally get its voters from Venstre and SD.

You then get:

a) public sector academics, students and teachers parties: Red-Greens, SPP, Social Liberals.

b) wealthy people and/or private sector academics (and students hoping to become such creatures): Liberal Alliance, Conservatives.

With the Social Liberals having a slice of b) as well.

I agree to large degree, but there are segments among non-academics/teachers who votes for these parties. Red Greens do get a lot of old communist votes, and they was often working class (of course they're also in collapse), they also get a lot of votes from people who is permanent or semi-permanent outside employment. Of course Muslim immigrants also often vote for all three parties on the left.

The conservatives also have a base among less well of people, like craftmens and urban working class. Of course both groups are remnants from when the conservatives was a a bigger party. We shouldn't underestimate party loyalty and the hostility to Venstre you find among some people on the cnetre right.

[ingemann]

Whither the Red-Greens? Is Denmark like rich European countries used to be, when the extremists would surge mid-term but collapse before the next election?

It's a natural result of SPP moving to the left and recreating their old base. The teachers who had almost left SPP enmass for the Red-Greens have also begun to return as their anger have begun to cool.

[ingemann]

Will the terrorist attacks from last weekend have political consequences, for instance a "rally round the flag"-effect which will benefit the left bloc and SD or a DF surge because of anti-Islam sentiments?

I don't think the left as a block will lose votes over this, I think they have almost lost all what they can to the right. But it may mean that they won't get some votes back, which would have returned. All in all I think this is a net negative for the left.

But individual parties in both blocks may suffer. On the left EL and RV are most likely to lose votes. While on the right I could see some Conservative and Venstre votes go to DPP.  especially Venstre may suffer as they have the main stream politician who have reacted the most undignified and opportunistic (Søren Pind).
DPP on the other hand have reacted surprisingly tasteful. They haven't blamed anybody yet, the only critic which have come from them are that the Danish Jews was not well enough protected and that was by Søren Espersen who married to a Jew and have a Israeli Jewish son in law (so no one really blame him for having that opinion, even if they disagree).

On the left I expect SD to the most likely to pick a few votes from the other left wing parties, I could especially see some Social Liberal votes go to them.

[ingemann]

All in all it looks like the Red-Greens have lost their chance to become a big party - this time. It will still be crucial if they manage to stay ahead of SPP. If they do I think they will squeeze out SPP in the long run. SPP is the second most redundant party in Danish politics (no prize for guessing who is no. 1) and if the Red-Greens would kick out their Trots/Antifa-sympathizers, drop the rotation rule for MPs, create an actual youth organization (instead of relying on an activist style non-affiliated Socialist Youth Front), run their own list in the Euros (a chance to scoop up left wing Eurosceptics) and elect an actual chairman they could probably kill off SPP in a decade. Of course that is not going to happen, but even a couple of these changes would go a long way.

I see what you did there. Basically, what you say is : if only Red-Greens could become a "serious business" party like SD or Venstre, they would finally be a "serious business" party. Well, maybe they want to renew things a bit and not be a copy of what has always been done.

We have had other parties which was like EL in the past and they either developed into a "serious business" party (like SPP) or they disappeared. The Retsforbund as example, while centrist (through not moderate) instead of left wing, they shared the lack of a chairman and organisational control over the MPs. These factors was a major reason for why the party failed to stay in parliament.

Also it's nice enough to strongly believe in something, but when it results in a party just being against everything no matter what, people grow tired of such a party in time.

[ingemann]

As for the floor, it should be remembered that other left wing parties are often the first choice when you shift party. So I think the floor is bigger than the sum of the difference parties floor. So while the left are not at the floor right now, I think the floor is more likely at 2-3% lower than where the left is right now, not 8%. Still I doubt this will push the left down those 2-3%, I think this attack have been felt more strongly by the more social liberal value voters, than by the Blue Socialdemocrats voter segment. It doesn't really came as a surprise for the latter or changed their opinion of Muslims (they already had a rather negative opinion). While for the former it may be something of a wake up call. In fact I think if you haven't heard it, you should hear yesterdays "Det Røde Felt" (a Danish left wing talk radio program to all you non-Danes), it was rather interesting to hear the discussion.

As for Lars Hedegaard yes I can see he has something of a opportunity right now.

Through I doubt HTS will call an election in the next month. She may if she get several good poll the next three month call a election in the late spring.

[ingemann]

I haven't meet any one who really disliked the Alternative, except for a general dislike of the class of people who have made the party. But I'm not sure that's a good thing for the party. People rarely vote for a fluffy party with no edge. It's really ironic, the Alternative could and should have a very sharp edge, with them selling themselves as being in opposition to the establishment, but they're fundamental a "meh" party.

Also I agree with Politicus, Elbæk is going to be crushed in any public political debate in Denmark. Danish debates are not ugly, but they're rough and harsh, and you need to be something of a fighter to do well in them. From what I have seen of Elbæk, I really doubt he will make it. It's only in multi person debates he won't be humiliated, because the other party leaders won't waste time on him in those debates.

Also my own opinion about the whole project: It's not the worst idea. The Danish people are tired of our politicians. The problem is that one of the reasons people is tired of them, is because of their integration with the "creative class" and Elbæk is more or less the archetype of the worst elements from this group.

 

[ingemann]

On the topic of a right wing alternative to DPP and Islamophobia in general there was a YouGov poll conducted in late January on acceptable maximum Muslim population. It is poorly worded, but the result is still interesting and would likely be more negative post-shootings. It should also be noted that the poll does not include anyone 75+ (obviously not a pro-multiculti segment) and that "religion is a private matter" is a 97%+ view in Denmark, so including that in the no-option likely increases that number.

"How large a share of the Danish population should Muslims in your opinion maximally constitute now and in the future?"

0%: 7%
1-5%: 24%
6-10%: 14%
11-20%: 4%
20-30%: 1%
"I can and will not answer that because religion is a private matter": 42%
Dunno: 8%

There are 4,1% Muslims in Denmark with a high share of children/youth and relatively high fertility, so anything below 7-8% would de facto require repatriations.

Not necessary we have a relative high immigration rate and Muslims make up a relative little part of new arrivals. At the same time the birth rate among Muslims born in Denmark is more or less the same as native Danes (2012: 1,8-1,9). As for first generation Turks are just under replacement rate (2012: 2,0), while Pakistanians are somewhat higher and Somalians are the only group with over 3 children per woman. At the same time outmarriage usual result in the childrens being MINOs.

Of course all this means little because people are not really able to connect percents to population sizes. I knew a Muslims who thoughts Muslims in Denmark was 10-20% of the population, simply because looked around and that was what he saw. Dutch and Tamils are two rather large immigration groups, the size of the Somali community in Denmark, but because they mostly live in Jutland, I for example is rarely aware of them.

So what these people really say here, is that they accept Muslims live in Denmark, but they don't want them to be much bigger group than they are now.

[ingemann]

In a somewhat OT request for the Danes here, do you feel the district heating that powers your country is effective? I was at a lecture where the guy was raving about it, I wanted to hear directly how it effects citizens.

Mostly it doesn't effect people daily life, as it doesn't bother people, outside when the road is digged up. It's often used as a way to get rid of surplus heat, especially as we burn gabbage, through we have begun to integrate waste heat from the industry in the system. They're talking about with the new Apple centre near Viborg (9th largest municipality in Denmark), to use the local district heating as a cooling system for the Apple centre, the only problem is that Viborg is not large enough for the amount of heat it will produce, so they're also talking about putting Silkeborgs (11th largest municipality) district heating on the system too even through it lies 32 kilometer south of Viborg.

As a way to get rid of waste heat it have been a success for decades, but from what I can see with the improvement in insulation (lessering the heat loss under transport), it can today also pay to simply produce the heat and not just use waste heat (even if that's preferable).

It make mostly sense in relative densely populated areas, but even in semi-urban areas, it make a lot of sense and many Danish villages have a districts heating (through those usual don't use waste heat).

[ingemann]

So what these people really say here, is that they accept Muslims live in Denmark, but they don't want them to be much bigger group than they are now.

There is a steady increase in the Muslim population over time and it is unlikely to stabilize anytime soon. Growing refugee pressure will add to this.

Most refugees we receive are quota refugees and we more or less take no Muslims from that category today. If the Syrian refuge seekers follow traditional pattern, we will see between 30-40 000 Syrian refugees stay in Denmark when the conflict ends. Eritrerians are a mix of Christians and Muslims, but lean toward Christian majority. Chechen is the last significant refugee group. But they don't have a significant sized population. We are talking a few thousands at most.

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Yes completely agree.

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We're both from the greater Copenhagen area, I'm not sure the population of the provincial towns and rural areas would guess 10% (which is close to the percent of Muslims in Copenhagen).

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Yes it could be a very interesting poll, especially if we could see regional and ethnic difference.

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Not really surprising, I have a social liberal friend (not really the most xenophobic group) who describe his view of Muslims this way. He likes a lot of individual Muslims, but if you asked whether he liked Muslims as a group, he would say "not really". Muslims are for a lot of Danes a irritation moment, not enough that they want to hurt them, discriminate against them, repatriate them or vote for DPP. But they don't like them as group.

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Again I'm not sure there's a major difference between this group and the former.

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No these people can accept a very large increase.

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Yes agree

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Likely, plus I don't expect anyone outside some Muslims (and not even all of them) would say that we need above 30% Muslims in Denmark.

[ingemann]

Former Liberal MEP, serial entrepreneur (and serial bankrupter) and financial speculator Klaus Riskær Petersen (59) has announced he will try to get a place on Alternativets candidate list. Riskær is convicted for various forms of economic crimes, but has managed several comebacks in the business world. Now it looks like he will attempt a political comeback as well.

Wow, it would be an absolute disaster for Alternativet, if he came on the ballots. I can't say if he has changed his life, but in the eyes of the great public, Riskjær (with the nickname Risikokær = risk loving) is still the exponent of untamed capitalism (and a few dirty tricks, if that gives money). Not the type of candidate Alternativet needs.

I don't think he would be a disaster for Alternativet, at least not in their attempt to be elected. Riskær is well known, have his fans and political he's not a weak card, he has visions, he can put them in political and economical context, and he's even able to describe them in a greater ideological-historical context.

The big threat with in the short term, is if he start a internal war in the new party, but this can be avoided if they decides to cooperate with him.

Of course if Alternativet is elected, Riskær is a disaster, he lack any kind of impulse control and he's a primadonna. Alternativet risk becoming a new centre-left version of the Progress Party.

[ingemann]

Question for the Danish posters:

How conservative is she really ? And is she actually running on an electable list spot

Nikita Klæstrup

She's the leader of Conservative Youth on Lolland-Falster (think of it as a left wing version of Vorpommern).

[ingemann]

Question for the Danish posters:

How conservative is she really ? And is she actually running on an electable list spot

Nikita Klæstrup

She's the leader of Conservative Youth on Lolland-Falster (think of it as a left wing version of Vorpommern).

Thanks.

But is she running in the upcoming Parliamentary Election too, or is she just a local leader ?

She ran in one of the two municipalities last election, I couldn't find much information about her, so if she does, she hides it well. But honestly as around 20 year old conservative youth politician for a party in crisis, she may be on a list somewhere, but she's not going to be elected.

[ingemann]

Ah, I see that Denmark shares that issue wrt double-barreled names with England.

They're relative uncommon, names like Lars Løkke Rasmussen's (where Løkke is his mother's maiden name) are more common.

[ingemann]

What are the chances of the election being held before the summer holidays?

Answering that would be pure guess work, but if HTS doesn't call for the next month, it's going to be after the summer.

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There's pros and cons. The primary pro is the momerntum

But the economy is improving, Venstre suffer from a very chaotic campaign and the personal unpopularity of LLR and the longer the voters get to focus on that, improve the position of HTS. Personal I would wait to september.

[ingemann]

Their finance guy Peter Christensen has been labeled as "a young Fogh" by many, but is off-putting to moderate female voters (like Fogh) and I doubt "the bald electrician" will get the top job - as unfair as it is being ugly is often a disqualifier in modern politics.

Lots of things are unfair in politics. But he would not be the first ugly man in politics (Mogens Glistrup, who looked like something a cat had vomited up). But when we mix a unpleasant and anonyme personality with a voice and a face which give him the nickname "the Pig" and the political views of an Venstre apparatnik, you're not going become leader of a major party ever.

[ingemann]

@Ingemann: Wouldn't the effect of the three big campaigns fizzle out if you wait until September? It seems like a waste of scarce resources in a context where Blue Bloc can massively outspend SD.

First I think the SocDem have more money than people usual expect. While the Unions are somewhat pissed on the government, the Right scares them and as for big business they're not unhappy with government, and LLR & co are not really beloved by them. Also the Left have also been able to deliver more bang for the bucks in election. That's purely the whole resources aspect.

Then we have the fact that Venstre look more like they will run out of political gas before the government. LLR are slightly more popular than malaria, and he's hurting his party, Venstre also run around without a clear message and the longer they try to avoid telling what they want, that the more ridiculous they will look. Behind the scenes the Conservatives are in a complete collapse in infighting and I think (and this may be ridiculous) that Conservatives risk getting under 2% if the stories about their infighting spread from BT to other medias. By waiting the Alternative may also if it's build out of sticks instead of bricks collapse before rather than under the election (I hope they survives). At last by waiting HTS will gain from the improvement in the economy.

At last there's the legacy aspect. If HTS lose, it's better that she lose when we are clearly out of the crisis. If Venstre also have been forced to make promises for tax cuts, it's even better, because in 2016 the government will have to do something to stop the economy from overheating. So Venstre will either do that, or they will let the economy overheat. The first will give LLR the same reputation for breaking his promises. The latter will show Venstre to be a deeply irresponsable again.

Of course she risk that LLR will pull some kind of rabbit out before the election, but that's always a risk.

[ingemann]

One of the local Liberal candidates which are rising to the national level at this election is 44-year old Carl Holst. He is currently the Chairman of the Region of Southern Denmark, and before the regions were created, he had been the County Mayor of South Jutland since 2000. He was a leader of the Liberal Youth from 1993 to 1995, and a county councillor since 1993.
He is the candidate who is most certain to be elected MP of all those running as he runs in the multi-member constituency with the most Liberal seats, Southern Jutland, and he will be the most popular Liberal candidate there. In the 2013 regional elections he received 94 197 personal votes out of the 686 956 votes cast in the region.
Holst grew up on a folk high scool where his dad was a teacher, when the dad was not focusing on his roles as mayor and MP. Carl and his wife are both teachers as well, so he certainly got a huge base in the folksy, rural Grundtvig part of the Liberals. However, he is also a good friend of Løkke, and was loyal to him during the leadership battle. He knows Peter Christensen very well from their time together in the Liberal Youth in Southern Jutland, and is credited with "inventing" Peter Christensen as a real politician.
Perhaps, he could be a kind of compromise candidate which could be accepted by most camps. He might not be personally popular among Kristian Jensen and his supporters, but I think enough of them would accept him as his idelogical background is rather similar to e.g. Kristian Jensen.

He's a incredible good candidate on paper at least, he's strong where his party is weak and the Left strong (health, public service etc.). He's highly respected by everyone including the Left. He also deliver on growth. His only problem is his lack of experience on Christiansborg. But that was shared by Nyrup, who was one of the greatest Danish PMs.

[ingemann]

The Soc Libs have been in coalition with the blue block before right? What's stopping them crossing the floor to prop up a right-wing government?

The answer is DF/DPP. The Soc Libs and DP are polar opposites on so many areas, EU, immigration, taxation, education, that it would be inconceivable with a government depending on/consisting of both of them. Their voters are as different as they can get in Denmark; DP's standard voter is the old working class/unemployed/pensioner man outside the big cities while the Soc Lib is the young woman with a higher education degree living in one of the big cities. They both hate each other with a vengeance; probably the two parties which despise each other the most.
No polls have shown anything resembling a centre-right majority, i.e. Liberals, Conservatives, Liberal Alliance and Soc Libs. The latest polling average gave them only 70 seats combined.

There's also the aspect that no one in the other parties likes the Soc Libs MPs, they're really a bunch of horrible people to work with. So if there exist a stable alternate majority, you're not going to see them as part of a majority.

[ingemann]

Where they go long term is unclear. Their biggest political talent by far, MEP Morten Messerschmidt is a genuine National Conservative and they attract a small segment of young National Conservatives, but Thule Dahl is young enough to hang on for two decades more and in the end the leadership may pass to a centre-left oriented person. It would in many ways be a logical development.

I don't think that Messerschmidt will ever become leader of DPP. He function because he's a big fish in a small pond (the Danish EP group). In a party leader discussion in Denmark, he would be crushed because he could not get away with making things up and bluffing, which work in the EP elections, where his opponents sadly are too ignorant about EU to call him out. In my opinion he's most overrated politicians in Denmark, since Naser Khader founded New Alliance.

[ingemann]

Could, as the DPP and SD both moderate and move closer to Venstre, we ever see a grand alliance between the three? Does Denmark have any experiences with that either nationally or locally?

We had a coalition between Venstre and SD in the 70ties, it was a disaster. Locally coalition are muddy, and often based on personality. SD in Hvidovre sit on DPP votes, on Lolland they use Venstre's votes. But in Lyngby-Taarbæk the Conservative and SD are usual in coalition together with a Conservative mayor. Local politics are vastly different from the national one in Denmark.

[ingemann]

The Soc Libs have been in coalition with the blue block before right? What's stopping them crossing the floor to prop up a right-wing government?

The answer is DF/DPP. The Soc Libs and DP are polar opposites on so many areas, EU, immigration, taxation, education, that it would be inconceivable with a government depending on/consisting of both of them. Their voters are as different as they can get in Denmark; DP's standard voter is the old working class/unemployed/pensioner man outside the big cities while the Soc Lib is the young woman with a higher education degree living in one of the big cities. They both hate each other with a vengeance; probably the two parties which despise each other the most.
No polls have shown anything resembling a centre-right majority, i.e. Liberals, Conservatives, Liberal Alliance and Soc Libs. The latest polling average gave them only 70 seats combined.

There's also the aspect that no one in the other parties likes the Soc Libs MPs, they're really a bunch of horrible people to work with. So if there exist a stable alternate majority, you're not going to see them as part of a majority.

If there ever was a party that embodies the term Very Serious People it would be Radikale Venstre.

That's.... that's a wonderful description of them. Through I would include to lesser extent LA in that. They're quite similar to RV in selfrightousness and smugness, through they're less bad.

[ingemann]

To illustrate here is the result of this years test election among older pupils in Danish schools:

http://www.skolevalg.dk/valgresultat/

Blue bloc 57,9
Red bloc 42,1

Venstre 27.4
Social Democrats 17.7
Liberal Alliance 11
Conservatives 10.5
Radikale Venstre 9.9
DPP 9.0
SPP 7.7
Red Greens 6
KD 0.9

You got:

The 4 "Liberal" parties (incl. Cons) 58,8

SD, DPP + left wing: 41.2

(the Conservatives and the left wing are actually doing surprisingly fine here)

School elections used to be massively red only a decade ago.

While this could seem to indicate DPP has no future as a strong party, that may change if they establish themselves as one of the "big 3" and become (even) more mainstream.

The school elections are always in opposition to the sitting government and their block, I don't expect any long term effect of this. Unless of course we see several similar student elections.

[ingemann]

To the Danish posters; I just heard last Sunday's "Søndagsfrokosten" as a podcast. Jon Stephensen had a interesting analyse on the whole "Stop Nazi Islamisme" campaign.

[ingemann]

While moving the Cons to the right - and thereby overcoming the old structural problem of the party being at the same time to the left and right of Venstre - may be the right move long term (there are clearly too many centrist parties in Denmark)  it is a really risky move to attempt during an election campaign. where they may very well get in trouble with the threshold if part of their moderate core voters stay home without the party attracting new segments. Bold or desperate? Perhaps a little of both.

Pape and the Conservatives are in panic right now, and they try to something which can same them. Of course these random acts are more likely to make them lose even more voters.

Of course I'm personal of the opinion that Conservative Folketing's group could use a Stalinistic purge, leaving no one alive. Their lazyness and incompetence over the last 20 years is the main reason the Conservatives have the problems they have now, and I think a complete crash and burn may be better for them in the long term, especially as I would expect them to return after a period outside the Folketing (because of their strong local organisation) with a much more competent group.