Intrade says Hillary has 42.5%, McCain highest with 18.3% at being parties nom

[MissCatholic]

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

go into politics then o8 elections

Intrade have a very high success rate. on election day they got every state right.

Kerry had a 54% chance of winning Wisconsin on election day when only three days earlier Bush had a 605 chance.

Same happened in Ohio, Kerry was favourite with a week to go and Bush moved ahead in the last few days from 43% to 61%.

This is the site to follow if you want to know who the nominee is.

Feingold has no chance according to this.

But interesting to see George Allen in third, ref Bill Frist is doing well also.

[they don't love you like i love you]

I don't trust anything this early, and these results are definately not trustworthy. Neither one will be the nominee.

[phk]

Its mostly name recognition at this point.

[Erc]

I look at Tradesports occasionally (and use it to update my Hillary-o-Meter [the successor to my pre-election Kerryometer]).

But at this point, the volume is so low that not much can be garnered therefrom.

But three things of note can be gathered from Tradesports:

1) Bill Owens is dead.  Not that we didn't know this already, but Tradesports confirmed this.  He used to be in third or fourth, somewhere around 13%...but has since died, going all the way down to 3-something.

2) Rudy Guiliani has no real chance.  Of course, any of us could have told you that.  But he used to be even with McCain at about 18...but then he dropped below 10.

3) George Allen's performance is interesting, although I'm not too sure what to make of it.

[Notre Dame rules!]

That puts Allen in a pretty good spot.  McCain won't run due to health reasons, and Rudy can't win the nomination on the issues.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I break down the Republican candidates by ideology:

True wingnut:
 Allen, Jeb Bush, Brownback, Frist, Santorum

Merely right-wing:
Sanford, Palenty, Owens, Romney

Not right-wing but not moderate, either:
McCain, Pataki

Too liberal to get the nomination:
Guilani

[No more McShame]

I look at Tradesports occasionally (and use it to update my Hillary-o-Meter [the successor to my pre-election Kerryometer]).

But at this point, the volume is so low that not much can be garnered therefrom.

But three things of note can be gathered from Tradesports:

1) Bill Owens is dead.  Not that we didn't know this already, but Tradesports confirmed this.  He used to be in third or fourth, somewhere around 13%...but has since died, going all the way down to 3-something.

2) Rudy Guiliani has no real chance.  Of course, any of us could have told you that.  But he used to be even with McCain at about 18...but then he dropped below 10.

3) George Allen's performance is interesting, although I'm not too sure what to make of it.

I think it's too early to declare anyone's death as of yet, though I don't see Guiliani having much of  a chance.

[Moooooo]

Ive been reading up on Sen. Brownback and I think this guy may be a force to reckon with come 2008.  The Republican primary voters will absolutley love this guy.

[TheresNoMoney]

Ive been reading up on Sen. Brownback and I think this guy may be a force to reckon with come 2008.  The Republican primary voters will absolutley love this guy.

The ones who want a theocracy will.

[AuH2O]

First, think about Republican primaries in recent memory. Then, think how many had more than 2 legitimate candidates, and note that some didn't even have that (i.e. 1996).

The GOP runs things too well for all kinds of candidates to actually go to the primary voters. Don't see how Brownback makes it to NH.

[Beet]

All these trading sites had Howard Dean winning the Iowa caucus by a big margin until 3-4 days before.

[Erc]

All these trading sites had Howard Dean winning the Iowa caucus by a big margin until 3-4 days before.

As did all the polls, and all the media...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The numbers for the Republican  primary are probably useful.  As for the Democratic primary, we've traditionally had very unpredictable ones like 1968, 1972, 1988, 2004.

[Joe Republic]

If Intrade is so good at predicting the eventual nominees, I'd like to know who they named in 2001 as the future Dem nominees for 2004.  Because that's effectively what they're doing here now.  If they still got it right then I'll be mightily impressed.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If Intrade is so good at predicting the eventual nominees, I'd like to know who they named in 2001 as the future Dem nominees for 2004.  Because that's effectively what they're doing here now.  If they still got it right then I'll be mightily impressed.

I'm pretty sure they got it wrong. The top names being mentioned in 2001 and 2002 were Gore, Lieberman, and Hillary, followed by maybe Daschle or Biden.

[Joe Republic]

If Intrade is so good at predicting the eventual nominees, I'd like to know who they named in 2001 as the future Dem nominees for 2004.  Because that's effectively what they're doing here now.  If they still got it right then I'll be mightily impressed.

I'm pretty sure they got it wrong. The top names being mentioned in 2001 and 2002 were Gore, Lieberman, and Hillary, followed by maybe Daschle or Biden.

Exactly.  I don't really trust any polls on future nominees when there's still three whole years before the actual event.