The Obama coalition in 2016

[Oregreen]

I know that it may be unpredictable right now, but it still is worth asking: Will the Obama coalition turn out again for Hillary Clinton in 2016 (assuming she is the nominee)? Or will turnout among minorities and young people drop (which would hurt Democrats' chances)? Turnout is key for their success in every swing state except New Hampshire (though that may become a non-competitive state very soon). Even with changing demographics, Democrats STILL need to get out their voters (which did not work as well in 2014 as it did in 2012). Was the Obama coalition really an achievement of the Democratic Party or was it a 'gift' to Obama? I think many people are actually underestimating Obama's incredible ground game in 2008 and 2012, though that would not change the Republicans' demographic problems in 2016.

[Cory]

I think Obama will be looked back on as having began a major realignment in American politics similar to Nixon in the 1970's. A "Nixon done right", if you will.

[Maistre]

I suppose that depends on whether the witch drops the ball or not. If she does the dumb, yet slimy and opportunistic thing she is capable of, she could run away from Obama and strangle the Obama realignment in it's cradle.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Not sure. The polls seem to indicate a decent number of bitter AA's, there is usually a 5-10% drop off in support from Biden to Hillary among them in general election match ups.

[Oregreen]

I suppose that depends on whether the witch drops the ball or not. If she does the dumb, yet slimy and opportunistic thing she is capable of, she could run away from Obama and strangle the Obama realignment in it's cradle.

Well, she is a Clinton, so she will find a way to appeal to everyone at the same time

Not sure. The polls seem to indicate a decent number of bitter AA's, there is usually a 5-10% drop off in support from Biden to Hillary among them in general election match ups.

Such a drop-off (also by Hispanics) would be disastrous for Democrats in Ohio and Florida. It would make states like Georgia and North Carolina non-competitive.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It will probably drop a little, but nothing groundbreaking.

The concerning thing for Hillary, is that, without a black on the ticket, the black vote will probably go back to 2004 levels (88-11-1 (D-R-I)). However, she can make up for this by getting to ~41% of the white vote, which while difficult, is certainly not out of reach.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I suppose that depends on whether the witch drops the ball or not. If she does the dumb, yet slimy and opportunistic thing she is capable of, she could run away from Obama and strangle the Obama realignment in it's cradle.

Well, she is a Clinton, so she will find a way to appeal to everyone at the same time

Not sure. The polls seem to indicate a decent number of bitter AA's, there is usually a 5-10% drop off in support from Biden to Hillary among them in general election match ups.

Such a drop-off (also by Hispanics) would be disastrous for Democrats in Ohio and Florida. It would make states like Georgia and North Carolina non-competitive.

Hillary is more popular than Obama among Hispanics, so she should be fine there. The AA numbers should be concerning to her though, especially since she will have to distance herself from Obama if he remains unpopular, thus causing further backlash.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She will have the same coalition that Obama achieved back in 08, due to immigration and the women's vote, although turnout may drop, but not significantly.

If she puts a Castro on the ticket, it will help achieve success in hard fought out states of FL, CO and NV, although, it will be an unknown, due to it never tried before.

And Bill, will be the campaigner in chief, as well as her chief of staff should she achieve the presidency.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I have done some research on this issue, and the conclusion I reached was that what made Obama a winner was increased AA voter turn out.  Sure AAs voted for Kerry too and sure O appealed to many demographics Kerry couldn't appeal to, but what gave Obama VA, OH and FL was that black voters in those states actually voted.  Whoever is the next Dem candidate needs to remember that IMO

[Brittain33]

No reason to think young people or minorities turn out for Clinton in high numbers achieved in '08 or '12. If Clinton's successful, it's because she wins some voters Obama lost and turnout falls enough overall that she can afford to lose many of Obama's voters, plus Obama had a big margin to deplete before an R wins.

[porky88]

In presidential years since 1992, the share of the white vote has consistently dropped. We’re heading toward less than 70 percent within the next couple of cycles. 2008 and 2012 were part of a larger trend. I think 2016 will confirm it. I guess maybe President Obama accelerated this to an extent, and I agree that he tapped into it more than any modern candidate has, but this is where the country is heading.

Therefore, yes, the Obama coalition will turnout. However, the republicans could just as easily tap into it by nominating the right candidate, and shifting the party to the center. It wasn’t long ago that President Bush won about 40 percent of the Hispanic vote. I imagine Mitt Romney would've been elected president if he got that large of a share of the Hispanic vote.

[IceSpear]

AA turnout will drop a bit, but nothing major. Hillary has more upside among Hispanics and whites.

[Frodo]

There will be some reduced turnout among African-Americans, but Hillary will more than make up for it among women of all races who will be especially motivated by her candidacy. 

[Likely Voter]

Bear in mind that turnout was down across the board in 2012. In 2008 Obama got 69.5M votes and in 2012 he got 65.9M votes. So I would say that turnout would be up with most of the Democratic coalition (Youngs, Unmarried Women, LGBT, Latinos/Asians) with perhaps AAs remaining flat

[Mehmentum]

I think turnout will be about where it was in 2012.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If blacks turned out for Terry McAuliffe I don't see why they won't do the same for Clinton.

[Vega]

If things go good for the Democratic nominee in 2016, than the Obama coalition will become the Democratic Coalition.

[Devils30]

Blacks won't turn out at a higher rate than whites but will stay around 13% of the electorate .

[Xing]

I'm actually guessing that black turnout won't be down that much. I actually think that younger voters are a bigger concern for Hillary, and many of them might stay home if she doesn't find a way to excite them.

[Ljube]

Neither blacks nor kids will turn out.

Obama coalition? What coalition? Obama what?

[Devils30]

I'm actually guessing that black turnout won't be down that much. I actually think that younger voters are a bigger concern for Hillary, and many of them might stay home if she doesn't find a way to excite them.

Jeb is a good candidate to continue the GOPs run of miserable performances with young voters. People age 25-35 have such fond memories of his brother's stellar presidency.

[IceSpear]

Neither blacks nor kids will turn out.

Obama coalition? What coalition? Obama what?

Hillary might not reach Obama levels among those groups, but she's certainly going to appeal to them more than Gore/Kerry did.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I think Hillary will do better with Hispanics. The Tea Partiers/Ann Coulters have shifted their focus from ObamaCare to immigration, and whoever gets the nomination is going to have to pander to that constituency during the primaries, and probably say something completely asinine.

[Suburbia]

If Hillary or Warren is the nominee, they may turn out. If O'Malley, Biden run, they may turn out if their message is good.

[dmmidmi]

George W. Bush is just as responsible as Barack Obama for solidifying older Millennials as a key demographic of the Obama Coalition. Turnout might drop, but I'd be downright stunned if the national GOP made any real inroads with people of this age group any time soon.

Black turnout may drop slightly, but nobody really expects the GOP to make serious gains here. If there's a reason to expect turnout among single women to drop, I'd like to hear it.

Though plenty of Democrats scoff at the idea, the right candidate might make serious inroads among Hispanic voters (George W. Bush performed very well with this demographic).