The Obama coalition in 2016

[dmmidmi]

George W. Bush is just as responsible as Barack Obama for solidifying older Millennials as a key demographic of the Obama Coalition. Turnout might drop, but I'd be downright stunned if the national GOP made any real inroads with people of this age group any time soon.

Black turnout may drop slightly, but nobody really expects the GOP to make serious gains here. If there's a reason to expect turnout among single women to drop, I'd like to hear it.

Though plenty of Democrats scoff at the idea, the right candidate might make serious inroads among Hispanic voters (George W. Bush performed very well with this demographic).