The Obama coalition in 2016

[Devils30]

Blacks won't turn out at a higher rate than whites but will stay around 13% of the electorate .

[Devils30]

I'm actually guessing that black turnout won't be down that much. I actually think that younger voters are a bigger concern for Hillary, and many of them might stay home if she doesn't find a way to excite them.

Jeb is a good candidate to continue the GOPs run of miserable performances with young voters. People age 25-35 have such fond memories of his brother's stellar presidency.