Cook Political Report House and Senate Rankings
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 23, 2024, 01:04:26 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Cook Political Report House and Senate Rankings		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Cook Political Report House and Senate Rankings  (Read 2171 times)
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,694
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: December 16, 2014, 12:41:46 PM »

http://cookpolitical.com/senate/charts/race-ratings

http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings

The house ratings seem slightly more unbiased than Sabato's, but the senate ratings are a joke - Johnson is Toss-Up at best, not Lean R.
Logged
Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,826
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: December 16, 2014, 12:52:00 PM »
No CA-25. Roll Eyes
Logged
Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: December 16, 2014, 01:14:26 PM »
Don't worry, 75% of Cook's ratings will end up in the toss up column about a year out from election day and stay that way through the cycle.
Logged
free my dawg
SawxDem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,144
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: December 16, 2014, 01:20:31 PM »
Trash.
Logged
Kraxner
Rookie
**
Posts: 179


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: December 16, 2014, 01:34:51 PM »
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.


That's got to sting.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: December 16, 2014, 02:04:34 PM »
IL, PA, and WI are all Lean R? LOL
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,613
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: December 16, 2014, 02:59:35 PM »
IL, especially isn't safe yet, Foster, Bustos, Duckworth are all considering a run, and an outside chance Madigan runs. WI, NH and PA are clearly tossup/tilt GOP and throw FL in the mix, especially if Hilary runs
Logged
Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: December 16, 2014, 04:10:15 PM »
Honestly, I would expect a map like this from Cook (or any Predictor) after a wave election.

I would like to see some ratings for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House after the 2004 election.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: December 16, 2014, 04:17:47 PM »
I think they're clearly trying to avoid toss-ups this time? There's no way they could legitimately think Kirk and Johnson are 'favored'. Unless I'm missing something. We're coming off of 2014, so the election predictors are going to skew towards Republican  favor-ability for now. Nothing to freak out about.
Logged
Nichlemn
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,920


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: December 16, 2014, 04:49:53 PM »
Only 34 Republicans are not "Safe"? Sure.

Also, I'm surprised that he didn't put some Senate incumbents in the toss-up column. I think Kirk is by no means the DOA some think he is, but he most definitely is not clearly favoured.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: December 16, 2014, 06:04:12 PM »
Cook's formula is rather simple:

- At the start, every single incumbent is a favorite
- Once polls start to show a race as even remotely competitive, it goes to a toss up and stays there
- Even if an incumbent is clearly going to get Blanched, it will not move out of toss up, except maybe a few weeks before the election
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,694
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: December 16, 2014, 06:09:59 PM »
I'm also not sure why McCain is viewed as Safe for the general. Given his underwater approval ratings, I can definitely see a strong challenger such as Richard Carmona, Gabby Giffords, Ann Kirkpatrick, or Kyrsten Sinema defeating him in the right political climate.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: December 16, 2014, 06:13:41 PM »
Cook's first 2014 ratings:
Logged
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,513
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: December 17, 2014, 12:51:33 PM »
Expected from Cook
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.037 seconds with 12 queries.