Could North Carolina be more Democratic than Florida in 2016?
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  Could North Carolina be more Democratic than Florida in 2016?		 « previous next »
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Question: Will North Carolina be more Democratic than Florida in 2016?
#1
Yes
#2
No
#3
They'll be about the same
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Author Topic: Could North Carolina be more Democratic than Florida in 2016?  (Read 1067 times)
Xing
xingkerui
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« on: December 16, 2014, 03:11:55 PM »
Assuming a generic R candidate and a generic D candidate, do you think it's possible that North Carolina could end up being more Democratic than Florida? North Carolina definitely seems to be trending Democratic (R+13 in 2000, R+6 in 2012), while Florida has pretty consistently been a few points more Republican than the nation as a whole, recently. Discuss.
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I Will Not Be Wrong
outofbox6
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« Reply #1 on: December 16, 2014, 03:45:49 PM »
Sure, if Bush is the candidate. Besides that, not a chance.
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Oregreen
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« Reply #2 on: December 16, 2014, 04:04:13 PM »
I don't think so. Especially Hillary Clinton is a much better fit for the state of Florida.
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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: December 16, 2014, 04:08:21 PM »
I was actually expecting FL to flip to Romney before NC in 2012. Still, I think Hillary will be stronger than Obama with Hispanics, so she should do better in FL.
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« Reply #4 on: December 16, 2014, 04:08:36 PM »
Polling suggests that Hillary is very strong in Florida, so no.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #5 on: December 16, 2014, 04:12:47 PM »
Unless Sir Cretin is nominated, FL will most likely swing to Hillary. So no.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: December 16, 2014, 05:24:00 PM »
Quote from: Noam Chomskey on December 16, 2014, 03:45:49 PM
Sure, if Bush is the candidate. Besides that, not a chance.
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Beet
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« Reply #7 on: December 16, 2014, 05:33:33 PM »
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Devils30
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« Reply #8 on: December 16, 2014, 07:12:14 PM »
It's super super early but Hillary's Florida polls make her look like no worse than a 50/50 bet even against Jeb. Don't forget how many new residents Florida has since 2002 and the fact that Hillary is stronger than Obama there. Florida's electorate should be about 64% white and the new FL hispanics include a lot of Puerto Ricans who don't care about Jeb.
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Never
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« Reply #9 on: December 16, 2014, 08:50:02 PM »
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Miles
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« Reply #10 on: December 16, 2014, 10:18:02 PM »
Also, FWIW, NC's PVI was actually R+7 in 2000, and its down to R+3 now.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #11 on: December 16, 2014, 10:50:14 PM »
Quote from: Miles on December 16, 2014, 10:18:02 PM
Also, FWIW, NC's PVI was actually R+7 in 2000, and its down to R+3 now.

I wasn't referring to PVI, I was referring to how the vote totals in North Carolina compared to the popular vote (2000: Bush won by 13, ~13 points more Republican than the popular vote, 2012: Romney won by 2, ~6 points more Republican than the popular vote.)
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #12 on: December 16, 2014, 10:54:35 PM »
I doubt it. North Carolina is more culturally conservative than Florida. I doubt very much Hillary wins North Carolina ahead of Florida.
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Consciously Unconscious
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« Reply #13 on: December 16, 2014, 11:13:33 PM »
It's possible if Bush is the nominee, and the Dems do well with African Americans in NC
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Miles
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« Reply #14 on: December 17, 2014, 12:36:05 AM »
Quote from: xingkerui on December 16, 2014, 10:50:14 PM
Quote from: Miles on December 16, 2014, 10:18:02 PM
Also, FWIW, NC's PVI was actually R+7 in 2000, and its down to R+3 now.

I wasn't referring to PVI, I was referring to how the vote totals in North Carolina compared to the popular vote (2000: Bush won by 13, ~13 points more Republican than the popular vote, 2012: Romney won by 2, ~6 points more Republican than the popular vote.)

Yes, I figured, I just wanted to put that out there, too.
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