Presidential elections Two years before they happened

[OSR stands with Israel]

1978

Reagan 312
Carter  226


1982

Reagan  411
Mondale 127


1986:

Bush 462
Duakikis : 72

1990:

Bush 333
Clinton 205

1994:

Dole: 315
Clinton 223

1998

Gore 348
Bush 190


2002

Bush 443
Kerry 95

2006

Mccain 269
Obama 269


2010

Obama 290
Romney 248

[NHI]

1978: Reagan Defeats Carter

√ Reagan/Bush: 341 (51.1%)
Carter/Mondale: 197 (47.9%)

1982: Reagan Narrowly Defeats Mondale

√ Reagan/Bush: 295 (50.1%)
Mondale/Ferraro: 243 (48.9%)

1986: The Duke Defeats Bush

√ Dukakis/Bentsen: 276 (50.1%)
Bush/Quayle: 265 (49.3%)

1990: Bush Defeats Clinton

√ Bush/Quayle: 450 (60.9%)
Clinton/Gore: 88 (37.7%)

1994: Dole Defeats Clinton

√ Dole/Kemp: 350 (52.2%)
Clinton/Gore: 188 (46.6%)

1998: Bush Defeats Gore

√ Bush/Cheney: 301 (51.0%)
Gore/Lieberman: 237 (47.9%)

2002: Bush Crushes Kerry

√ Bush/Cheney: 427 (55.9%)
Kerry/Edwards: 111 (44.3%)

2006: McCain Edges out Obama

√ McCain/Palin: 283 (50.2%)
Obama/Biden: 255 (48.8%)

2010: Romney defeats Obama

√ Romney/Ryan: 290 (50.9%)
Obama/Biden: 248 (48.4%)

[Mr. Smith]

I'll do you one better and go back to 1962 with Kennedy and Goldwater (because Kennedy was totally going  for re-election).

1962: Kennedy Defeats Goldwater

Kennedy/Johnson: 406 (55.6%)
Goldwater/Miller: 132 (43.8%)

1966: Humphrey Narrowly Defeats Nixon

Humphrey/Muskie 353 (48.4%)
Nixon/Agnew 121 (45.3%)
Wallace/LeMay 64 (6.1%)

1970: Nixon Beats McGovern

Nixon/Agnew: 439 (56.1%)
McGovern/Shriver: 99 (40.8%)

1974: Carter trounces Ford

Carter/Mondale: 342 (53.2%)
Ford/Dole: 196 (45.9%)

1978: Reagan narrowly defeats Carter

Reagan/Bush: 360 (49.6%)
Carter/Mondale: 178 (44.1%)
Anderson/Lucey: 0 (6.2%)

1982: Reagan narrowly re-elected

Reagan/Bush: 308 (51.3%)
Mondale/Ferraro: 230 (47.7%)


1986: Dukakis defeats Bush

Dukakis/Bentsen: 295 (50.2%)
Bush/Quayle: 243 (48.7%)

1990: Bush defeats Clinton (No Perot)

Bush/Quayle: 356 (52.2%)
Clinton/Gore: 182 (46.7%)

1994: Dole beats Clinton

Dole/Kemp: 285 (49.8%)
Clinton/Gore: 253 (48.1%)


1998: Bush narrowly actually defeats Gore

Bush/Cheney: 292 (49.8%)
Gore/Lieberman: 246 (48.1%)

2002: Bush trounces Kerry

Bush/Cheney: 342 (55.0%)
Kerry/Edwards: 196 (44.2%)

2006: Obama trounces McCain

Obama/Biden: 389 (54.6%)
McCain/Palin: 149 (43.7%)

2010: Romney narrowly defeats Obama

Romney/Ryan: 282 (50.2%)
Obama/Biden: 256 (48.6%)

[OSR stands with Israel]

2014:

Hillary 334
Trump 204

[Mr. Smith]

Trump/Walker
Clinton/Kaine

[Skill and Chance]

The incumbent party always loses, save for FDR in 1934 and 1942, Bush in 2002 and maybe Kennedy in 1962 or Carter in 1978, which would both be toss ups.

[Thunderbird is the word]

Disagree about 82. In the midst of the recession Mondale wins easily.

[dw93]

Disagree about 82. In the midst of the recession Mondale wins easily.

Yea, LOL at everyone that says Reagan would win in 1982. Reagan's approval ratings that year were as bad or worse than Clinton's in 1994 or Obama's in 2010.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Has anyone here considered that the general midterm effect might not happen if there was no midterm, and the president was on the ballot.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Disagree about 82. In the midst of the recession Mondale wins easily.

Yea, LOL at everyone that says Reagan would win in 1982. Reagan's approval ratings that year were as bad or worse than Clinton's in 1994 or Obama's in 2010.

The 1982 midterms were not that bad a defeat for the GOP

The Democrats were unable to gain back all the seats they lost in 1980.


Most midterms the party in power loses all the seats they gained in the previous election cycle and more.

[dw93]

Disagree about 82. In the midst of the recession Mondale wins easily.

Yea, LOL at everyone that says Reagan would win in 1982. Reagan's approval ratings that year were as bad or worse than Clinton's in 1994 or Obama's in 2010.

The 1982 midterms were not that bad a defeat for the GOP

The Democrats were unable to gain back all the seats they lost in 1980.


Most midterms the party in power loses all the seats they gained in the previous election cycle and more.

The GOP lost around 25 seats in the House and the only reason the Senate didn’t flip is because the Democrats maxed out the Senate in 1974 and 1976 (those elected in 1976 were up for re election in 82) because of Watergate.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Disagree about 82. In the midst of the recession Mondale wins easily.

Yea, LOL at everyone that says Reagan would win in 1982. Reagan's approval ratings that year were as bad or worse than Clinton's in 1994 or Obama's in 2010.

The 1982 midterms were not that bad a defeat for the GOP

The Democrats were unable to gain back all the seats they lost in 1980.


Most midterms the party in power loses all the seats they gained in the previous election cycle and more.

The GOP lost around 25 seats in the House and the only reason the Senate didn’t flip is because the Democrats maxed out the Senate in 1974 and 1976 (those elected in 1976 were up for re election in 82) because of Watergate.

That still meant they had around 10 more seats in the house than they did before 1980

[darklordoftech]

The 2002 maps above are ignoring the fact that most states were already (non-Atlas) "red" and "blue".

[OSR stands with Israel]

Here is how Biden vs Trump would look like in 2018 and 2022(Given a rematch is almost certain):

2018:




2022:

[WalterWhite]

2014:

Hillary 334
Trump 204

How would Trump have done worse in 2014 than 2016? 2014 had a more Republican environment than 2016.

[Mr.Phips]

Disagree about 82. In the midst of the recession Mondale wins easily.

Yea, LOL at everyone that says Reagan would win in 1982. Reagan's approval ratings that year were as bad or worse than Clinton's in 1994 or Obama's in 2010.

The 1982 midterms were not that bad a defeat for the GOP

The Democrats were unable to gain back all the seats they lost in 1980.


Most midterms the party in power loses all the seats they gained in the previous election cycle and more.

The GOP lost around 25 seats in the House and the only reason the Senate didn’t flip is because the Democrats maxed out the Senate in 1974 and 1976 (those elected in 1976 were up for re election in 82) because of Watergate.

That still meant they had around 10 more seats in the house than they did before 1980

A good part of that is that Dems had to concede more seats to Republicans (a number of the Republicans who picked up Dem seats in 1980 got much safer seats in 1982)  in redistricting in many places in order to protect many of their own incumbents. 

[Agonized-Statism]

Would have done one for 1930, but the severe drought that would later kick off the dust storms probably would have had the same effect for Hoover in the Midwest, and it would be a wash.

1918

President Woodrow Wilson (D-NJ) / Vice President Thomas Marshall (D-IN)
Fmr. Governor Charles Hughes (R-OH) / Congressman Irvine Lenroot (R-WI) ✓

There's a huge drop in turnout as the flu disrupts campaigning around the country and millions of men are busy fighting overseas. The midterms OTL were a backlash rather than a rally 'round the flag- sorry Wilson hacks- but not as strong of one as 1920, when the global economy fell very sharply from the mild retreat of 1918 and what rallying 'round the flag there was had dissipated. I think he loses a close-ish one with the war clearly days away from ending, and it's not really seen as a changing horses mid-race thing like a presidential election in 1917 might have been. Hughes is probably the Republicans' nominee; he was open to the prospect of another run before the death of his daughter in 1920, and Roosevelt's health had declined seriously by 1918. Debs also does better earlier on in the Red Scare.

1958

Senator John Kennedy (D-MA) / Senator Lyndon Johnson (D-TX) ✓
Vice President Richard Nixon (R-CA) / Ambassador Henry Lodge (R-MA)

1958 recession. Humphrey might have been the nominee, but the map would be similar enough.

[LabourJersey]

If we're basing this purely on the economy/external factors beyond the "midterm factor' that wouldn't exist, it would be something like:

1974: Democrat (post-Watergate)
1978: Republican
1982: Democrat
1986: Democrat re-elected
1990: Republican (1990/91 recession)
1994: Republican re-elected
1998: Republican
2002: Democrat (2001 recession)
2006: Democrat
2010: Republican
2014: Republican
2018: Democrat (close to a toss-up given decent economy vs. 8 year itch)
2022: Republican (Pandemic/inflation)