Florida Cuban Vote
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 18, 2024, 02:26:53 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Florida Cuban Vote		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Florida Cuban Vote  (Read 904 times)
Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: December 17, 2014, 03:03:35 PM »
Historically, the Cuban vote in Florida has been a solid Republican block. Does Obama's actions relating to Cuba crack this once solid Floridian voting block? And if so, what does this mean for Florida's 29 electoral votes?

I legitimately have no idea.
Logged
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,634
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: December 17, 2014, 03:06:17 PM »
I thought Cubans in FL were Republican because of anti-Cuba sentiment? I assume this would only hurt. I think Obama won them in 2012, possibly 2008 as well, though.
Logged
Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,600
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: December 17, 2014, 03:07:26 PM »
No.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/cuba-embargo-obama-backlash/
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,795
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: December 17, 2014, 03:08:52 PM »
Even Cuban-Americans support ending the embargo and reestablishing diplomatic relations.
Only those who still live with their memories from the Cold War oppose changing these failed policies.
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,450


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: December 17, 2014, 03:38:56 PM »
Cubans in Florida trended heavily towards Obama in 2012 (Dade was one of the strongest Dem trending counties in the entire country in 2012).  This is largely in part due to younger Cubans having different voting habits than their parents.  The view on this issue seems to break along the same generational lines.  Older Cubans don't like it, younger Cubans do.
Logged
henster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,984


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: December 17, 2014, 04:01:58 PM »
As long as it isn't going 70-30 Republican like it did a few years ago then Hillary should be fine.
Logged
Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: December 17, 2014, 05:20:20 PM »
Quote from: henster on December 17, 2014, 04:01:58 PM
As long as it isn't going 70-30 Republican like it did a few years ago then Hillary should be fine.

Is there any numbers yet on Crist's performance with Cubans in this year's Gov race?
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,795
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: December 17, 2014, 05:38:15 PM »
Quote from: Joshua on December 17, 2014, 05:20:20 PM
Quote from: henster on December 17, 2014, 04:01:58 PM
As long as it isn't going 70-30 Republican like it did a few years ago then Hillary should be fine.

Is there any numbers yet on Crist's performance with Cubans in this year's Gov race?

I read that he won the Cuban-American vote.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: December 17, 2014, 06:15:59 PM »
Obama won the Cuban-American vote in 2012, so it's no longer a solidly Republican voting bloc. Also, I don't think the embargo will be a key issue of 2016.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: December 17, 2014, 06:30:58 PM »
Younger cubans are much more liberal than their parents. The Democrats have a good chance to improve further, but they're also having problems with some white voters in the northern and central parts of the state. Florida remains a battleground/center-right state.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: December 17, 2014, 06:48:03 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on December 17, 2014, 06:30:58 PM
Florida remains a battleground/center-right state.

Without Jeb, it might not stay that way.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_rubio_vs_clinton-3553.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_christie_vs_clinton-4213.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_paul_vs_clinton-4212.html
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: December 17, 2014, 07:06:34 PM »

Without Carl Levin, Michigan might not stay democratic-favored.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=26220131208108
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=26220140409226
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=26220131010010
Logged
TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,990
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: December 17, 2014, 07:12:06 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on December 17, 2014, 05:38:15 PM
Quote from: Joshua on December 17, 2014, 05:20:20 PM
Quote from: henster on December 17, 2014, 04:01:58 PM
As long as it isn't going 70-30 Republican like it did a few years ago then Hillary should be fine.

Is there any numbers yet on Crist's performance with Cubans in this year's Gov race?

I read that he won the Cuban-American vote.

Crist did not win the Cuban-American vote. He did substantially worse than Obama in Hialeah because younger Cubans didn't vote. His performance was still remarkable/historic for a Democrat though.
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,562
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: December 17, 2014, 07:22:48 PM »
only the old rich mafia prick Bacardi grandmas will care
Logged
Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,600
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: December 17, 2014, 07:29:38 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on December 17, 2014, 07:06:34 PM

Without Carl Levin, Michigan might not stay democratic-favored.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=26220131208108
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=26220140409226
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=26220131010010
'Might' being the key word in both instances.  These early polls aren't meaningless like some on this forum are saying. 

There was the very real potential for Michigan to go Republican in 2014, there was a genuine Democrat weakness that Land squandered.  Similarly, there is the potential for Hillary to do very well in Florida, whether or not that potential is realized is another question.
Logged
TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,990
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: December 17, 2014, 07:33:26 PM »
Quote from: © tweed on December 17, 2014, 07:22:48 PM
only the old rich mafia prick Bacardi grandmas will care

lol

this is an apt description of the kind of Cuban voter who would care about this. Hint: very few people who are vehemently opposed to normalizing relations with Cuba have ever voted for a Democratic candidate.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: December 17, 2014, 09:46:19 PM »
Quote from: Mehmentum on December 17, 2014, 07:29:38 PM
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on December 17, 2014, 07:06:34 PM

Without Carl Levin, Michigan might not stay democratic-favored.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=26220131208108
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=26220140409226
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=26220131010010
'Might' being the key word in both instances.  These early polls aren't meaningless like some on this forum are saying. 

There was the very real potential for Michigan to go Republican in 2014, there was a genuine Democrat weakness that Land squandered.  Similarly, there is the potential for Hillary to do very well in Florida, whether or not that potential is realized is another question.

This. Early polls aren't the end all be all, but they aren't completely useless like the Hillary haters tell themselves to feel better either.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.038 seconds with 13 queries.