Thom Tillis: (maybe) Good Enough, (could be) Smart Enough But…
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  Thom Tillis: (maybe) Good Enough, (could be) Smart Enough But…
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Author Topic: Thom Tillis: (maybe) Good Enough, (could be) Smart Enough But…  (Read 2550 times)
Miles
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« on: December 19, 2014, 12:58:00 AM »
« edited: December 19, 2014, 01:10:00 AM by Miles »

Do people like him? Well, his constituents don't seem to.

I’ll admit, as the number one Hagan hack around here, that when her name was sometimes mentioned for President or VP, I was always lukewarm at best. Well, after this election, that’s pretty much gone out the window anyway. However, this thought was recently brought to my attention:

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The idea of Thom Tillis on a national ticket is as startling as it is disturbing.

Lets deconstruct this argument:

Proposition 1: Tillis is well positioned to be an NC political giant because he'll be an assertive Senator.

As House Speaker, he was more or less at the mercy of the more conservative Senate and even let the more radical faction of his House dominate the discourse in Raleigh. The implication here seems to be that this lamb (Tillis) will turn into a lion just because he's changed jobs.

If anything, Tillis will need to keep a low profile. Why? I know his race was going to be close either way, but he was elected with with lowest percentage of the vote of any NC Senator in history.

He'll almost certainly face an electorate that is more hostile in 2020. If you look at that counties that swung the most against Liddy Dole, for example, they were also generally the ones that had the sharpest turnout increases (e,g. Cumberland and Mecklenburg counties). Tillis won this time in large part because Democrats in places like Charlotte and Greensboro didn't turn out, an advantage he likely won't have in a Presidential year. He could try to make inroads in such areas, but he's entering office with a reputation as incredibly divisive, partisan figure. If he's seen as a vocal Senator who's always trying to pull the debate to the right, I don't think that helps him.

Of course, if Tillis is betting on being the GOP VP in 2020 and forgo reelection, he'll certainly be more 'assertive', but that would be kinda silly considering all the variables between now and then.

Proposition 2: Tillis wants to be NRSC Chairman.

I do think this has a decent chance of actually happening. A while ago, I predicted that if Tillis got elected, he'd be most like Cornyn, who actually led the NRSC in 2010. I can see the cards falling into place for Tillis in 2018: the current chair, Wicker, and the runner-up, Heller will both be defending their own seats in 2018. That would be a good opening for him. Considering all the things Democrats threw at him in this cycle, Tillis certainly would have the appeal of being 'battle tested.'

Tillis usually brags about how in 2010, how he left his job at IBM to recruit legislative candidates and raise money for the state party. Given the environment of 2010, the GOP would have almost certainly taken the NCGA regardless, but Tillis was at the right place at the right time to take credit.

I remember watching an interview with him during the campaign, I forget the outlet, but he was being asked about the political geography of the state. I was impressed with how he held up. He would say things like "Well, Alamance county is Republican, but its not as a red a Randolph or Davidson County." I think that type of knowledge would help Tillis as NRSC Chair. By contrast, when Hagan was asked about geography/coalitions in the state, she often just gave some generic answer.

What makes things cruelly ironic, at least from my perspective, is that 2018 will be a target-rich environment for Senate Republicans, especially if the President is still a Democrat. Tillis will be their to take credit for picking up seats.

Of course, another Senator who recently held his seat was the NRSC chair. We all know how that went.

Proposition 3: With a proven ability of seeing his goals come to fruition, Tillis' rise could land him on a national ticket.

I'm really reminded of this piece that was out a while ago which documented Tillis' quick rise: (keep in mind it was written before the election)

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This seems to support mt hunch that he'll be a relatively low-profile Senator; nationally, I'm not sure how that would play. As the GOP has generally put more of a premium on Governors than Senators in terms of national viability, McCrory could be a better pick (assuming he wins again).

But would Tillis make a good VP candidate?

Its pretty clear that he wouldn't be picked because he's Mr. Congeniality. His gaffes, whether spitting on half the state or trashing the poor make that pretty clear.

Also, given the the GOP's need to expand its appeal, I can only see him being picked if the ticket's Presidential is eh, of non-traditional heritage, as Tillis himself would say.

I'll have to see how he acts as Senator to have a better idea of how he'd play nationally. But after the wave this year, there certainly won't be any shortage of ambitious (and more charismatic) Republicans looking to move up.

Still, its gonna be one hell of sad day in America if this is what Inauguration Day looks like in 2021 or 2025:

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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
SawxDem
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« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2014, 01:44:02 AM »


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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: December 19, 2014, 02:39:14 AM »


I thought weed was illegal in North Carolina? Actually, weed is far too mild of a drug for whoever wrote this dreck. Tillis will have his hands full merely to hold his seat in 2020, much less run for president.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #3 on: December 19, 2014, 04:15:57 AM »

So repeating Romney's performance during a Republican wave year suddenly makes you a political genius or something?
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windjammer
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« Reply #4 on: December 19, 2014, 04:48:00 AM »

So repeating Romney's performance during a Republican wave year suddenly makes you a political genius or something?
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #5 on: December 19, 2014, 06:17:47 AM »

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But Thom, isn't that what your own party has done in Congress for the past six years?
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CountryClassSF
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« Reply #6 on: December 19, 2014, 10:16:55 AM »

I underestimated this man all cycle. I don't know of anyone in the industry who thought he could pull off a win against Hagan's millions
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #7 on: December 19, 2014, 10:27:11 AM »

Extremely doubtful.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #8 on: December 19, 2014, 11:50:00 AM »

I underestimated this man all cycle. I don't know of anyone in the industry who thought he could pull off a win against Hagan's millions

Related: 83% of Atlas 2014 predictions also called this race wrong
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Maxwell
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« Reply #9 on: December 19, 2014, 12:36:10 PM »

Tillis has to be target #1 for the Democrats in 2020. He's certainly not VP material.
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Vega
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« Reply #10 on: December 19, 2014, 03:52:53 PM »

No sane candidate would pick him as VP.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #11 on: December 19, 2014, 08:31:07 PM »

No, he won't be selected as VP, at least not unless he does something notable in the Senate first. No one except politics watchers and people from North Carolina know who he is, and he's not exactly a star to either. There are at least 30 other people I would expect the GOP to nominate as VP before Tillis.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #12 on: December 19, 2014, 11:55:23 PM »

Only way he gets picked is if the GOP candidate for some reason feels he really really needs to win North Carolina. And if he's really that desperate to win North Carolina, he's probably already toast.
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LeBron
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« Reply #13 on: December 20, 2014, 01:08:42 AM »

Because that's who America wants as their next Vice President....another boring, old, arch-conservative white guy that's literally a micro-version of John Boehner. Tongue

Honestly, he'll be so concerned on getting re-elected in 2020 and will be such a prime Dem target that he probably won't even realize there is a Presidential election that year. He has to run in a state trending to Democrats thanks to the rise of the black and Hispanic populations of the state, and he'll have to fend off a strong challenge from Cowell, Stein, Foxx or whoever else the NC Dems might get in their bench by then.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: December 20, 2014, 03:00:49 AM »

Only way he gets picked is if the GOP candidate for some reason feels he really really needs to win North Carolina. And if he's really that desperate to win North Carolina, he's probably already toast.

I'm pretty sure picking Tillis as VP would actually hurt the ticket in NC.
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CountryClassSF
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« Reply #15 on: December 20, 2014, 10:32:14 AM »

Only way he gets picked is if the GOP candidate for some reason feels he really really needs to win North Carolina. And if he's really that desperate to win North Carolina, he's probably already toast.

I'm pretty sure picking Tillis as VP would actually hurt the ticket in NC.

Right, that's why he beat the most heavily funded incumbent of the cycle. Nah, I'd rather him stay in the Senate. We're grateful he sent Kay Hagan to the unemployment line where she belongs.
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Miles
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« Reply #16 on: December 20, 2014, 01:18:14 PM »

Right, that's why he beat the most heavily funded incumbent of the cycle. Nah, I'd rather him stay in the Senate. We're grateful he sent Kay Hagan to the unemployment line where she belongs.

'Careful...
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: December 20, 2014, 04:37:55 PM »

Only way he gets picked is if the GOP candidate for some reason feels he really really needs to win North Carolina. And if he's really that desperate to win North Carolina, he's probably already toast.

I'm pretty sure picking Tillis as VP would actually hurt the ticket in NC.

Right, that's why he beat the most heavily funded incumbent of the cycle. Nah, I'd rather him stay in the Senate. We're grateful he sent Kay Hagan to the unemployment line where she belongs.

That's in no way relevant to my post. His favorability ratings are in the gutter. He rode the wave.
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Joshua
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« Reply #18 on: December 20, 2014, 09:02:58 PM »

Only way he gets picked is if the GOP candidate for some reason feels he really really needs to win North Carolina. And if he's really that desperate to win North Carolina, he's probably already toast.

I'm pretty sure picking Tillis as VP would actually hurt the ticket in NC.

Right, that's why he beat the most heavily funded incumbent of the cycle. Nah, I'd rather him stay in the Senate. We're grateful he sent Kay Hagan to the unemployment line where she belongs.

So a senator who was elected with the lowest percentage of the popular vote in the entire history of the state of North Carolina, and had a lower approval than a Democratic incumbent in 2014 will help a potential ticket he's on in North Carolina?

Get real.
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CountryClassSF
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« Reply #19 on: December 21, 2014, 10:43:50 AM »
« Edited: December 21, 2014, 10:47:23 AM by CountryClassSF »

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If that's what makes you feel better about Kay Hagan being unable to pull together a win despite $7mil (conservative estimate) fundraising advantage and a relentlessly negative campaign, keep telling yourself that.

Indeed he had a lower approval, (just imagine if the party of no $ in politics didn't run all those attack ads) - yet he still won in the nation's most expensive Senate race.  I'm so sorry you're still upset!

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Indeed they are.  So, good luck in NC in the future without that lopsided fundraising advantage from the party of the little guy.   
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Miles
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« Reply #20 on: December 21, 2014, 02:01:46 PM »

Indeed they are.  So, good luck in NC in the future without that lopsided fundraising advantage from the party of the little guy.  

Because candidates who spend the most always win. Oh wait, except Liddy Dole outspent Kay Hagan more than 2:1 in 2008.

As state will be competitive in 2016 and 2020, given the demographic changes and less hostile electorate for Democrats, both parties will surely be investing heavily there.

Many Senate campaigns this year could have been characterized as "relentlessly negative." Shame on Hagan for playing hardball in a tough year Roll Eyes
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CountryClassSF
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« Reply #21 on: December 21, 2014, 02:47:23 PM »
« Edited: December 21, 2014, 02:49:49 PM by CountryClassSF »

Indeed they are.  So, good luck in NC in the future without that lopsided fundraising advantage from the party of the little guy.  

Because candidates who spend the most always win. Oh wait, except Liddy Dole outspent Kay Hagan more than 2:1 in 2008.

As state will be competitive in 2016 and 2020, given the demographic changes and less hostile electorate for Democrats, both parties will surely be investing heavily there.

2010, 2012, and 2014 were terrible cycles for Democrats in NC. Any Republican run like that and you'd say it's a permanent change.  Is there some strategy memo that the left uses every cycle they don't lose to minimize the impact of consecutive losses in a state? We're waiting on that emerging demographic change in Texas by the way that you've been talking about for two decades

Relentless Democrat race obsession has turned off more white folks from their party, and I don't think they counted on that in their race card strategy  that began in 2008 when they did it to the Clintons!
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Miles
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« Reply #22 on: December 21, 2014, 03:10:43 PM »

^ As always, I appreciate your very informed, insightful analysis.

So lets deconstruct this:

2010 and 2014 were terrible cycles for Democrats generally; the Republican wave was hardly unique to NC.

If you follow NC politics, I don't know how you'd justify 2012 as a terrible year for NC Democrats. Despite the gerrymandering and an unpopular Governor, they: 1) held a majority of the statewide offices 2) won the Congressional popular vote 3) NC, at the Presidential level, trended Democratic.

Not sure if your Texas comment was directed towards just me or Democrats in general. I've never put TX in the same category as NC, or GA. The trend maps I've been doing lately, for instance, certainly show that.

Please take your silly epithets about 'the left' and race elsewhere; they make it harder for me to take you seriously.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #23 on: December 21, 2014, 10:06:51 PM »

of all the freshman senators, does anyone see him as the one most likely to go to the crowbar hotel?
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