War of the Roses

[SPC]

I must of missed something, but why did Paul the elder drop out in favor of Paul the younger?

In the absence of a candidate such as Romney that the Pauls were personally friendly with, acting as an attack dog for Perry to clear the way for Paul the Younger in 2016 was dubious from the get-go. Perry's meltdown, combined with a split in the establishment vote between Bush and Christie made them think that a late entry by Paul the Younger would be a better strategy than going down with a sinking ship.

[SPC]

Double Strike

New Hampshire Primary Results
Paul 26%
Huntsman 23%
Christie 22%
Gingrich 11%
Bush 8%
Santorum 5%
Pawlenty 3%
Perry 1%

The first-in-the-nation primary proved to be a decisive victory for the House of Paul, and a major embarrassment for the party establishment. Despite efforts to unite behind Huntsman rather than the flawed Christie to prevent such an outcome, many Republican primary voters refused to vote strategically, ironically because they found Huntsman too aloof for their tastes.

While the Paul sweep proved a major boon to his candidacy-polls showed the freshman senator statistically tied for first with the Newt-few of his opponents took his campaign seriously enough to consider their losses to him a major defeat. Huntsman the Younger gallivanted to South Carolina boasting of his New Hampshire "victory," while Christie and especially Bush also hoped to make a last stand in South Carolina with moderate voters hoping for a more viable nominee than Gingrich or Paul.  Christie's action was more offensive than Bush's, as the patriach of the House of Jersey hoped that denying Bush a strong performance in the first primary of the South would knock him out of the race, thus positioning the rotund administrator for a victory in the ill-fated Florida primary (The legislature had moved this primary up to January prior to the entry of their former Governor into the race, thus inadvertently making the fourth contest of the season a coronation for their favorite son.)

The situation on the battlefield was murky due to the sparse public polling of the primary as well as a turbulent state of the race. The fate of Paul the Younger, who ambitiously sought a third consecutive primary win, ultimately rested in the hands of two kingmakers. Lord James of Mint was heavily courted for an endorsement by the Paul camp. However, the statesman privately felt ambivalent of Paul the Younger's ability to protect the kingdom, and steadfastly maintained his stance of neutrality in the run-up to the looming battle. The other factor was Governor Perry, who was uncertain as to whether to continue his quixotic quest into South Carolina. Some of Perry's advisers feared a poor performance would only solidify his image as a laughingstock, and urged the Governor to withdraw in order to aid the chances of the ideologically-similar Gingrich. Paul sought to avert this outcome by challenging the ego of the Icarus-like figure. While most of the other candidates largely ignored the inconsequential Perry, Paul used every opportunity at the final debate before the primary to challenge the Texas Governor's record of being overzealous in use of the death penalty and having deaf ears for sentencing reform. Perry naturally defended himself and, while not earning the levels of adoration Gingrich earned by assaulting the moderators, redeemed himself enough to boost his fortunes.

CNN National Poll
Gingrich 20%
Paul 18%
Christie 12%
Bush 10%
Huntsman 9%
Pawlenty 9%
Perry 9%
Santorum 9%

[Maxwell]

Is Pawlenty looking toward Florida for re-vitalization of his campaign? Because 3% in New Hampshire is pretty embarrassing.

[SPC]

Is Pawlenty looking toward Florida for re-vitalization of his campaign? Because 3% in New Hampshire is pretty embarrassing.

Florida is a lock for Jeb assuming he's still in the race, but Christie, Huntsman, and Pawlenty are circling Florida like vultures in the event that he withdraws. Otherwise, Pawlenty is hoping for a miracle in South Carolina.

[SPC]

South Carolina Primary Results
Gingrich 31%
Paul 17%
Perry 14%
Bush 11%
Santorum 9%
Pawlenty 8%
Christie 5%
Huntsman 5%

Paul's divide and conquer strategy failed to deliver a turkey for the freshman senator, and nearly relegated him to third place, with Governor Perry delivering a stronger than expected showing. Perry interpreted the results as a validation of his continued candidacy and vowed to soldier on to Super Tuesday. Naturally, Gingrich relished in the victory, which reasserted his precarious frontrunner status. Bush the Third, who had rested his hopes in a comeback in South Carolina, had accepted defeat. However, the pretender wished to negotiate a surrender on his own terms. Florida's winner-take-all primary was next week, and internal polling indicated that Gingrich would win the contest in a landslide if a favorite son was no longer in the running. Thus, Bush felt he had a duty to continue his candidacy for the time being in order to keep the Gingrich forces at the gates. However, Lord Adelson, a large financial backer of the House of Gingrich, was not as easily deterred by the use of the St. Mary's River as a moat. The Las Vegas billionaire poured millions into Florida media markets slamming their former governor as a covert anti-Semite with questionable backing, but the ominous background music was enough to scare elderly voters into making the coronation a close race. Gingrich himself disapproved of this strategy, feeling that Adelson had lured his campaign into a trap, although the candidate obliged when he saw the potential for book sales in Florida.

South Carolina did not transpire without fatalities. Pawlenty finally saw the writing on the wall and hung up his jersey, throwing his support to Governor Christie. Pawlenty's endorsement combined with another visceral debate performance boosted Christie's standing in the race, with Gingrich and Christie reprising the roles of Paul and Perry in the previous debate. Bush's confidantes remained skeptical that Christie could defeat Gingrich in Florida, although they remained fearful of the disasterous fallout that could occur should Christie's ascendance abet a Gingrich win in Florida.

Meanwhile, the Western front featured action from candidates seeing Florida as a lost cause, with Huntsman seeking to elevate turnout among Mormon voters while Paul consolidated support among libertarians. While Lord Adelson did not wish to see a defeat for his preferred candidate in his own backyard, the mogul lacked the organization on the ground to match his resources on the air.

[SPC]

Split Verdict

The contests to come narrowed the field down to six candidates, and five primary or caucus victors. Bush easily prevailed in his home state of Florida, but the victory on his own territory provided the aspirant with little momentum heading into the February contests. Christie's failure to make a respectable showing in Florida pushed the Governor out of the race. Huntsman eeked out a win in the Nevada caucuses over Paul and Gingrich, almost entirely due to his religious denomination and geographic proximity. Meanwhile, the caucuses of the following week added additional suspense to the race. Conservative mantle-bearer Gingrich was not on the ballot in Missouri, which enabled the ascendent Perry to resurrect his campaign. The Missouri performance, combined with Perry's surprising virtual tie with Huntsman in Colorado, allowed the former frontrunner to reassert his relevance in the race. Paul also regained some momentum with impressive wins in Minnesota and Maine, although his losses in Nevada and Missouri were disappointing. Despite being the only candidate in the field to not win a primary or caucus, Santorum vowed to stay in the race until a family medical emergency would provide him with a good excuse for withdrawing. As for the Arizona and Michigan contests later in February, they appear to be an absolute free-for-all.

CBS/NYT National Poll
Perry 21%
Paul 16%
Huntsman 16%
Gingrich 13%
Bush 8%
Santorum 6%

[SPC]

White Knight

The Perry resurgence demanded swift action on the part of the gentry class, who feared the electoral devastation that the knight errant from Texas would be capable of. Their job was made more difficult by Perry's defensive maneuvers, sticking to bread-and-butter conservative issues while avoiding speaking on anything that would lend itself to a gaffe. The debates proved to be of little utility either, with Huntsman and Bush providing lackluster performances against Paul's blows and Perry reaping the reward of the low expectations he inadvertently set for himself many months ago. In the twilight before the Arizona and Michigan primaries, the Perry forces appeared to have won the battle. However, Bush the Third pulled a brilliant maneuver for the landed interests, and suspended his candidacy in favor of Jon the Huntsman. This provided much-needed late momentum for the Huntsman, which proved decisive to clearing the battlefield of his opponents. Huntsman won the Arizona primary by nine points, with his identity as a Southwestern Mormon once again helping, and the Michigan primary by five points, an impressive victory in light of the division of the moderate vote between himself and the forces of Paul the Younger. Paul salvaged consolation victories in the Washington and Wyoming caucuses, as well as earning a plurality of delegates from Michigan due to strategic canvassing of votes.

NBC/WSJ National Poll
Huntsman 35%
Perry 23%
Paul 20%
Gingrich 9%
Santorum 4%

[Bacon King]

The strangest event of the contest thus far has been mogul Donald Trump's meteoric ascent to the top of the polls, based solely on prominent dog-whisling. This is probably a harbinger of things to come.