War of the Roses

[SPC]

Prologue: Tug of War

It was the beginning of December 2007, and the campaign of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney faced a dilemma. The insurgent candidate had worked all year to secure a lead in the Iowa caucus, the first contest of the upcoming primary season. However, the best laid schemes of mice and men often go awry, and Romney suddenly found himself in a tight battle with the evangelical social conservative former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. Romney's strategists labored endlessly over how to confront this challenge. However, one advisor (we will refer to him as Mr. X) departed from the crowd in pointing out a different concern: Mr. McCain, the candidate that Romney and virtually everyone else had considered a nonfactor, was picking up steam in New Hampshire, and devoting too many resources to Iowa could endanger the Governor's lead in the Granite State, where a win by McCain, a man far more respected by Republican financiers than Huckabee, would prove fatal. The Governor heeded the controversial advice from Mr. X and abruptly withdrew resources from the Iowa contest, instead replicating McCain's strategy of adopting virtual residency in New Hampshire.

This decision had ripple effects, of course. Huckabee had virtually free reign the Iowa caucus, with his only opponents either skipping the contest or too inept to exploit the situation. With the outcome of the contest no longer in doubt, the only remaining question was how big of a landslide would the pastor's victory be?

Iowa Caucus Results
Huckabee 41%
Thompson 15%
Romney 15%
McCain 13%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 5%

With the Gallup tracking poll the morning after showing Huckabee in the lead while Romney languished in a distant fifth, the candidate at first regretted having heeded the advice of Mr. X. However, Romney was able to obtain consolation over his victory in New Hampshire, although the candidate had largely taken that for granted:

New Hampshire Primary Results
Romney 36%
McCain 29%
Huckabee 13%
Giuliani 10%
Paul 8%
Thompson 2%

While the national polls afterward still left something to be desired for the Romney camp, it was a relief to see that their candidate has leaped into a statistical tie with Huckabee, Giuliani, and McCain.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Interesting; will McCain drop out or try and push into South Carolina?

[SPC]

The Race to Super Tuesday

Over the next few weeks, the Governor consolidated his frontrunner status with wins in Michigan and Nevada and a strong second place showing in South Carolina. While McCain and Giuliani had disappointing showings in those primaries, sinking their national poll numbers into the mid-teens, both candidates resolved to stay in the race in hopes of a good showing in Florida. One factor working in McCain's favor was the withdrawal of Fred Thompson, who subsequently endorsed the Senator after his fourth-place showing in South Carolina. Another confounding factor was the continued rise of Huckabee, who had renewed momentum after another upset win in the Palmetto State. It soon became clear that the Florida primary would be the ultimate referendum on Romney's fragile frontrunner status, which was seen as justification for Romney to blanket the state in attack ads against his three major opponents. This strategy proved successful for Romney, enabling the Governor to obtain a ten-point win over Huckabee. Romney was now the undisputed frontrunner heading into Super Tuesday, while none of his opponents were willing to concede defeat before the tsunami of primaries to come. Romney of course obtained an insurmountable delegate lead on February 5, even obtaining wins in Arizona and New York, much to the embarrassment of McCain and Giuliani. While all opponents except Huckabee withdrew the day afterward, Huckabee continued to be a thorn on Romney's side, with several state primaries backing the fundamentalist's futile pursuit rather than coalescing behind the presumptive nominee. The Huckabee "problem" was eventually taken care of after Romney obtained a bare majority of delegates following the Pennsylvania primary.

[GLPman]

Good so far

[Türkisblau]

This is going to be good.

[SPC]

His Loyal Squire

Despite having wrapped up the nomination relatively early (at least compared to the five-month slugfest on the Democratic side), Romney still faced a double-digit deficit in the general election polls and doubts from all three legs of the stool as to whether he would be the best emissary for conservative principles in the general election. Team Romney thus founds themselves as a strategic crossroads with regard to the running mate selection; would they choose an inoffensive pick so as not to alienate general election voters, or a conservative firebrand to generate enthusiasm with the base going into the coming campaign? The campaign made the decision to opt for the latter, calculating that alienating the general electorate was a greater risk than low turnout. Rather than waiting until the last minute, Governor Pawlenty was unveiled two weeks in advance of the Democratic National Convention. Surprisingly, the pick gave Romney a modest bump in the polls, moving the Governor into only a slight deficit against Senator Obama. Fundraising also improved with Romney's demonstration of seriousness, providing respite to a candidate who until now had relied almost as much on self-financing as on donations. Some pundits even speculated that Pawlenty's ability to put Minnesota (and potentially other Midwestern states) in play would allow the Republican ticket a path to victory that could circumvent Ohio, a state where Romney consistently faced low polling numbers against the Senator.

[SPC]

Ear Poison

With the dramatic shift in global economic conditions, Romney's greatest asset metamorphosed into his greatest albatross. While the former executive clearly prevailed in the first debate, where he demonstrated much greater expertise of the crisis than his inexperienced opponent, Obama was able to exploit populist anger over the bailout of Wall Street (which he supported) by airing advertisements in all critical swing states accusing the Governor of destroying jobs in his capacity as a venture capitalist. Pawlenty proved a paper tiger in the Vice-Presidential debate, frequently fumbling prepared attack lines against Senator Biden. Ultimately, Romney could not compete against the more polished Obama, earning only 162 electoral votes and the worst margin of defeat for a Republican candidate since 1964.

[GLPman]

Good update. Are you going to post a map?

[The Other Castro]

I'm guessing McCain 2008 map minus Missouri

[SPC]

I'm guessing McCain 2008 map minus Missouri

This. Romney does slightly better in the West (sans Arizona), worse in the Midwest (sans Minnesota), and about the same in the South. I figured a map would be fairly superfluous with such minor changes from IRL.

[SPC]

Two Years Later...

Coming off the heels of one of the worst midterm rebukes of an incumbent President in American history, many Republicans were hopeful that one of them would be able to replicate this feat in 2012.

House of Huckabee

Ordinarily, the runner-up in the last nomination contest would be the frontrunner in this nomination contest. However, while indeed Governor Huckabee holds consistent but narrow leads in early nomination polls, the pastor has not demonstrated an ability to appeal beyond his core demographic of social conservatives. Additionally, the Republican business community feels threatened by the nomination of an economic populist, so much so that their media division has implicitly offered the Governor a seven-figure salary to stay out of the contest. Of course, Huckabee may always threaten to change his mind, if only temporarily to use as a negotiating chip with Roger Ailes.

House of Pawlenty

The Vice-Presidential nominee from two years ago remains the current default choice of the Republican "Establishment," if only for lack of a better option. Despite having been on the national stage for over two years, Pawlenty still reminds something of a political enigma in the public eye. While he has not done something as egregious as enacting the blueprint for the President's most unpopular law, elements from all wings of the party would desire a candidate who can at least make an impression. Nevertheless, Pawlenty is almost certain to run, and retains a few inherent advantages: 2008 nominee Romney remains steadfastly loyal to his sidekick, he retains the highest name recognition among all would-be candidates from the center-right wing of the party, and he has that Midwestern charm. Nevertheless, it remains a point of contention whether Pawlenty's candidacy will deter other aspirants from entering.

House of Gingrich



He still has books to sell; he is in.

House of Perry

As Governor of the nation's second largest state, Perry remains a natural contender for the Party's nomination. On the surface, Perry appears to be one of the few candidates who can appeal to both wings of the party, with both his strong social conservative credentials and his coziness with the Texas business community. Like Pawlenty, the Governor still is something of a blank slate for most Americans, and he may be unaccustomed to a campaign in which he does not face a large demographic advantage.

House of Paul

Despite his public stances being motivated by libertarian principle, Dr. Paul's political strategy remains highly integrated with personal ties and advancing the political career of his son, recently elected to the Senate. While the iconoclastic congressman was one of the few individuals to foster a friendship with the 2008 nominee, Paul never formed such a connection with Pawlenty. From a strategic point of view, many Paul strategists doubt that Pawlenty possesses the clout within the Party to confer any benefit should Paul elect to take on the role of attack dog for the feeble frontrunner. Thus, the septuagenarian remains ambivalent at best on the possibility of mounting a third candidacy for the highest office.

[Türkisblau]

I don't think Texas is the largest state... perhaps you mean largest Republican state (by population)?

[SPC]

Running Start

Surprisingly, Governor Pawlenty became one of the first prospective candidates to enter the race, forming an exploratory committee in March. At the time, Pawlenty was joined only by businessman Herman Cain and Speaker Gingrich. Pawlenty's decision expedited the thought process of his prospective opponents. Several candidates occupying a similar niche within the Republican Party, such as Congressman Paul Ryan and Senator John Thune, have poured cold water on the idea of a campaign, voicing their preference for the legislature. Governor Mitch Daniels, on the other hand, remains open to the possibility, and is continuing to visit early primary states. Of the Southern pols, including Governor Haley Barbour, Governor Bobby Jindal, and Senator Jim DeMint, the 800-pound gorilla in the room seems to be less Pawlenty's underwhelming candidacy than Governor Perry's impending entrance into the race.

The strangest event of the contest thus far has been mogul Donald Trump's meteoric ascent to the top of the polls, based solely on prominent dog-whisling. This is probably a harbinger of things to come.

Gallup Poll
Donald Trump 16%
Mike Huckabee 16%
Rick Perry 10%
Tim Pawlenty 9%
Newt Gingrich 6%
Ron Paul 6%
Michelle Bachmann 6%
Mitch Daniels 6%
Scott Brown 2%
Herman Cain 1%

[SPC]

"Act III, Scene 3"

A few more candidates formally joined the field in May. Senator Rick Santorum and Governor Daniels formally launched their respective campaigns in Iowa. Congressman Paul had sought to delay his candidacy, instead preferring to wait and gauge whether the field was as open for grabs as it appeared on the surface before encouraging his son to announce his candidacy. However, the opthamologist determined that given the poor optics of a Senator in his first term running for President, launching a candidacy in his father's stead would be a myopic decision. Senator DeMint's admonition to the younger Paul of his intent to remain neutral in the contest solidified this decision.

Governor Perry's formal entry into the contest altered the dynamics of the race the greatest. The Governor shot to the top of most primary polls, and reportedly leads the fundraising race. With Perry's entry, most of the opposing candidates have shifted their attacks from questioning Pawlenty's credentials to pointing out inconsistencies in Perry's conservative record.

Quinnipiac Poll
Rick Perry 26%
Tim Pawlenty 15%
Ron Paul 9%
Mitch Daniels 8%
Michelle Bachmann 8%
Herman Cain 6%
Newt Gingrich 6%
Jon Huntsman 3%
Rick Santorum 2%

[SPC]

The Man to Beat

Bachmann and Huntsman formally entered the race in June, but the main story of the primaries was always frontrunner Rick Perry. The Texas Governor managed to rake in a hefty $20 million after his entry, putting Pawlenty's $6 million haul to shame. The month also featured the first two debates of the cycle, in which many of the conservative contenders assailed supposed lapses of ideology during Perry's ten-year tenure in Texas. Notably, Pawlenty attempted to join the Greek chorus of criticism headed Perry's way, but ultimately backed down from such criticism when pressed by the moderator. With Perry momentarily capturing the affection of conservative activists, advisers in Pawlenty's team have debated whether skipping the Iowa caucuses to focus on New Hampshire, more hospitable territory for moderate candidates, would be a wise move. However, Pawlenty refused to entertain this suggestion, believing that ceding Iowa would essentially mean ceding his best route to the nomination.

CNN Poll
Rick Perry 34%
Ron Paul 13%
Tim Pawlenty 11%
Newt Gingrich 7%
Herman Cain 7%
Mitch Daniels 6%
Michelle Bachmann 6%
John Huntsman 4%
Rick Santorum 2%

[Maxwell]

lol @ that picture of Perry, especially with some of the accusations I've heard about him.

[SPC]

Something Rotten

Erstwhile frontrunner Rick Perry began to draw criticism for remarks he made about the Federal Reserve, Medicare, and, um, let me see, his policy of granting in-state tuition to the children of illegal immigrants. Privately, many Republican donors felt that his views would be too extreme for a general election, while some conservatives sought more orthodox options to appeal to their xenophobia and pseudoscientific beliefs. Pawlenty, Daniels, and Huntsman began to slightly rebound in early polling and fundraising. However, the potential entry of an aspirant from the House of Bush complicated the trios respective attempts to break into the top tier. The pretender cited the wide opportunity for an alternative aspirant as justification for jettisoning his previous Shermanesque statement, and declared that he would contemplate a candidacy with his wife over the summer. Jeb's equivocation caused many to hesitate on settling for an option.

Pawlenty's campaign advisors, many of whom had previously worked on Romney's successful primary effort, continued to urge the Governor to skip Iowa, which in 2008 proved irrelevant to the process and a waste of resources. The candidate continued to insist that winning the state neighboring his home state was a must, and that Paul, Daniels, and Huntsman were already working hard to stake a claim into the electorate of New Hampshire. Pawlenty awkwardly continued to espouse his credentials as a social conservative, even as the power brokers of the Party felt that the current crop of candidates already conveyed that quality to the nth degree.

McClatchy-Marist Poll

Perry 23%
Bush 12%
Pawlenty 8%
Bachmann 8%
Gingrich 8%
Daniels 7%
Paul 6%
Cain 6%
Santorum 4%
Huntsman 4%

[SPC]

Going Rogue

The race for the Republican nomination was rocked significantly during the month of August. As expected, Governor Bush formally entered the race, but his announcement was quickly overshadowed by the unexpected entry of a claimant from the North, flying down to South Carolina to announce her bid. Governor Palin's folksy demeanor instantly captured the hearts of the conservative base. Meanwhile, establishment forces embraced the candidate tepidly, skeptical if her populist demeanor was genuine or merely a veneer for the rank and file. Meanwhile, Bush's insistence on sticking to a centrist stance on immigration, health care, and education instantly earned him the enmity of conservative activists.

The late entrants drew attention away from the Iowa Straw Poll, which ultimately proved to be of little consequence to the contest. Paul swept the beauty contest with 28% of the vote, besting both former frontrunner Pawlenty and native daughter Bachmann, who withdrew from the race shortly thereafter. Iowa frontrunner Perry declined to contest the poll. Paul's gadfly status ensured that his victory received little attention from the media, with some Iowa GOP leaders upset that the libertarian icon's victory may have permanently discredited the fundraiser. 

Many look forward to how the new entrants into the race will perform in the upcoming debates, which are scheduled to saturate the month of September.

WaPo/ABC News Poll
Perry 19%
Palin 17%
Bush 15%
Paul 9%
Gingrich 7%
Pawlenty 7%
Daniels 5%
Huntsman 4%
Cain 4%
Santorum 2%

[SPC]

Chaos Theory

The new entrants into the race greatly shifted the strategic calculus of the Paul campaign. In the earlier months, Paul had focused most of his attacks on Perry, to whom Paul bore a personal resentment after Perry's defeat of his ally in the Texas gubernatorial primary last year. However, with the entry of a heir from the House of Bush into the race, Paul no longer saw Perry as the greatest of all evils, and suddenly became on friendly terms with his home state's governor, seeing as both candidates had a larger obstacle to face at the moment. Paul presciently perceived Palin as a paper tiger, and largely avoided attacks againt the Alaska governor.

Thus, it was no surprise that the airwaves of Iowa and especially New Hampshire were saturated with negative advertising against Bush, focusing more on Bush's disparaging attitude toward civil liberties than perceived flaws in his conservative record. However, Paul's team avoided reference to Bush's father or brother, perhaps perceiving that setting such a precedent would not be in his son's interest. Bush was also savaged during the debates, with virtually every contender aiming their crossbows at him, rather than the two social conservative frontrunners. Perry, however, avoided direct attacks against his competitor, and unintentionally appeared dignified in the process as the Texan outlined his proposals for the next administration. Palin, already facing questions of credibility after a disasterous Katie Couric interview, failed to rectify matters in the debates, flubbing her criticisms of Bush as well as appearing wholly unprepared for her appearance on the national stage. The hockey mom found herself flabbergasted when questions regarding impropriety with state troopers arose, and the debate stage did not provide a hospitable venue for populist charm to win over voters in the absence of substance.

Reuters/Ipsos Poll
Perry 18%
Paul 14%
Bush 12%
Palin 10%
Pawlenty 8%
Gingrich 6%
Cain 5%
Daniels 3%
Huntsman 2%
Santorum 1%

[SPC]

Trading Places?

With October saw the release of another round of fundraising reports, which confirmed the state of the race. Frontrunner Rick Perry once again led the field, albeit with a weaker advantage than in the second quarter. Jeb Bush, dodged with questions regarding his last name, his positions on the issues, and his financial dealings, finished much weaker than expected, with many high-ticket donors expressing doubts regarding his viability in the contest given his thus far rusty campaign performance. Despite the perceived weakness of in the moderate niche of the party, Governor Daniels withdrew from the contest, an unsurprising development in light of his poor poll numbers and even weaker fundraising. Ironically, Daniels's influence on the contest only increased with his exit. Throughout the month of October, Daniels had desperately encouraged New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to enter the race, and spare the party the electoral disaster that a Perry nomination would entail. While Christie expressed ambivalence toward the subject, given Bush's presence and the obstacles to fundraising and campaigning that an incumbent Governor would face, he has not given the firm denials of interest in running that he provided only a few months ago.

Meanwhile, former frontrunner Pawlenty has also expressed doubts regarding his viability. On more than one occassion, he has considered withdrawing from the race to endorse Bush or Perry, in hopes of being sycophantic enough of a surrogate to merit a second Vice-Presidential nomination. However, Pawlenty's key advisors have reassured the Governor that he is in a strong position in the Iowa caucuses, which could prove to be the break he needs to reassert his dominance in the contest.

Iowa State University Poll
Perry 20%
Palin 19%
Pawlenty 14%
Paul 14%
Bush 11%
Christie 7%
Gingrich 7%
Santorum 3%
Cain 3%
Huntsman 1%

[SPC]

Alas Poor Rick

Just when it seemed that the race fo the Presidency could not get any more unpredictable, human folly (specifically with regard to analgesics) introduced additional turbulence into the contest. An incoherent speech delivered by Perry in New Hampshire, combined with the most humiliating 53 seconds in the history of live televised events, cast a mortal wound on the Texas governor, who in the minds of every person not altered by pain medication was finished as a serious candidate. This affected the calculus of virtually every candidate in the running, and some who were not:

House of Medici

The utter collapse of the Perry campaign proved the spark that broke the camel's back for a certain New Jersey governor, who formally launched his campaign the following week. Since the Governor was still hampered by campaign finance regulations, many of his supporters formed a Christie SuperPAC in order to run advertisements in New Hampshire on their candidate's behalf.

House of Bush

Christie's entry proved harmful to the Bush pretender, who not only faced a continued drought in financing, but also had his best path toward an early state win in New Hampshire blocked off by the greater appeal of the Northeastern governor to the Granite State. Bush's position in the state was already fragile in light of the near-constant attacks against him by the Paul campaign as well as Huntsman's all-or-nothing campaign in the state eating into his base of moderate voters. Bush's advisers debated whether the better strategy would be to attack Christie in New Hampshire, which might inadvertently resuscitate the moribund Huntsman campaign, or focus more on Iowa, where Bush would benefit more from a split conservative field and would only have to seriously contend with the timid but relatively inoffensive Pawlenty. Based on campaign appearances, Bush seems to have gravitated more toward the second option.

House of Paul

While the Congressman from Texas may be motivated by steadfast devotion to principle in his ends, tactically the Paul machine is just as motivated by a mixture of personal chemistry and nepotism as any other pol. The nonaggression pact with Perry had been successful at attacking the conservative credentials of rivals such as Pawlenty and Gingrich in Iowa while weakening the position of establishment alternatives such as Huntsman and Bush in New Hampshire. However, in light of the implosion of Perry (which guaranteed that the Texas governor would not be in a position to benefit Paul the Younger's presidential aspirations) and the candidacy of Christie (who defeated Paul's preferred gubernatorial candidate two years prior and reminded Paul of another candidate from the Tri-state area toward whom Paul possessed animosity.) Given that the candidates Paul had not burned bridges with were too far outside of the mainstream for Paul to form a worthwhile alliance with, the Paul campaign revived an idea that had previously been rejected. Christie's candidacy had already set the precedent that having at least one term's worth of experience would not be an obstacle, and with this in mind Paul the Younger inched closer toward running, with the only remaining obstacle being how Paul the Elder's campaign funds could be used to advance this plan.

House of Pawlenty

Perry's collapse and Palin's lack of presence solidified the soothing Midwesterner's hold on the first caucus state, with an unprecedented political resurrection looking to be an increasingly likely possibility. Team Pawlenty further delighted in Christie's ascendence to the national stage, confident that the abrasive administrator would be an easier competitor to vanquish in later primaries than the more collected Bush. The collapse of most viable alternatives left the man dubbed everybody's second choice in an enviable position.

House near Russia

The Good Witch of the North's undisciplined approach to campaigning combined with a slurry of verbal miscues left the former savior of the Republican Party in a position of increasing irrelevence.

Speaker of the House

Perry and Palin's decline left the right wing with a void to be filled, and the scandals that had rocked the Gingrich campaign earlier in the year were too many news cycles ago to be remembered in the public conscience. Additionally, being one of the few individuals in the country who could compete on Christie's caliber of confrontation made Gingrich a presence to be reckoned with in a campaign season in which nearly half of all waking hours are occupied by televised debates.

[Maxwell]

This is awesome. Good work man!

[SPC]

A Midwinter Night's Dream

The continued slurry of presidential "debates" proved to be a bonanza for the hefty honcho, considering that the format rapidly devolved into 90-minute shouting matches between himself and former Speaker Gingrich. What exactly was the topic of contention remains elusive, but in a party captivated by visceral vilification of the incumbent President, the abrasive attitudes of Christie and Gingrich proved resoundingly popular. The notoriously myopic pundit class already forecasts a protracted battle between the caustic duo, given the current polling showing Gingrich ahead in Iowa and South Carolina as Christie leads New Hampshire and Florida.

Gingrich's valued strategic position came partially as a result of Palin's sudden simultaneous resignation as governor and withdrawal from the contest. The former frontrunner allegedly detested the public limelight and withdrew in order to protect her family from incriminating public eye, which she plans to explain in detail in the pilot episodes of the new series Sarah Palin's Alaska, scheduled to debut immediately after the nineteenth primary debate. Her campaign's termination left a vacuum with the evangelical voters that make up a good portion of the Iowa electorate, a void that Gingrich, Perry, Pawlenty, and Santorum have desperately been seeking to fill. The quartet have involved themselves in a escalating battle to prove themselves the most homophobic.

Frodo formally announced his quest earlier this month, carefully waiting until after Bilbo devoted all of his resources to advertising that was deliberately deficient in including the candidate's first name. Surprisingly, Paul the Younger averted many of the anticipated criticisms of his lack of experience, which did not appear as flagrant when standing on a debate stage with a comparably unseasoned governor and a pizza salesman. Paul's candidacy did not attract major attention from any of his opponents spare Santorum, from whom Paul wisely avoided punching down. Currently, the novice appears the best positioned candidate to break the conventional wisdom, as he currently trails Gingrich in Iowa by just a few percentage points.

The change in strategies by the other players put Pawlenty back in the passenger seat of the contest, as conservative voters saw Gingrich and increasingly Santorum as more appealing options, while Bush's emphasis on Iowa made him a stronger contender for moderate voters. Paul the Younger proved a threat to the Minnesotan on both fronts, a beneficial byproduct of the bait-and-switch maneuver with the iconoclastic Elder. With many Iowa leaders concerned with the rising fortunes of the House of Paul, Pawlenty's primary dilemma has been to demonstrate to caucus-goers that his candidacy would be the best venue to prevent a Paul conquest, a task complicated by Bush the Third's desperate attempts to remain a relevant force in the battle.

PPP Iowa Poll
Paul 23%
Gingrich 21%
Pawlenty 13%
Bush 10%
Santorum 10%
Perry 9%
Christie 5%
Huntsman 1%

[SPC]

The Battle of Iowa

Caucus Results
Paul 22%
Gingrich 21%
Santorum 19%
Pawlenty 17%
Perry 10%
Bush 8%
Christie 2%
Huntsman 1%

The terrain of the battlefield proved fortuitous for Paul the Younger. The strategy of Santorum, who devoted his entire campaign to the early caucus state, proved successful in coalescing social conservatives to his campaign, although not to a great enough extent to overtake either Paul or right-wing frontrunner Gingrich. Still, Santorum saw the "three-way tie" as a vindication of his campaign and vowed to soldier on as the underdog. Similarly, concern by centrist caucus-goers that an extremist would run away with the contest, thus damaging Iowa's credibility, led many to abandon their preferred candidate Bush in favor of the favorite son of the Midwest Tim Pawlenty. Ordinarily, a fourth place finish would be the kiss of death for such a candidate. However, in light of Pawlenty's relative performance compared to the other candidates occupying his niche within the party, particularly his vanquishing of Bush the Third despite massive devotion of resources to the caucuses on the part of both aspirants, Pawlenty the Pusillanimous defied his instincts and boldly declared that there were now "four tickets out of Iowa."

The Iowa results set the stage for an equally intriguing contest in New Hampshire. Momentum from Paul's conquest, combined with Huntsman replicating Santorum's strategy in the first primary state and revelations of ethical problems with Christie, has turned what was earlier expected to be a Christie rout into a very uncertain event. Some establishment Republicans concerned with the party's image have discussed holding their noses for Huntsman to fend off a early state streak for Paul. However, Christie's appeal and Bush's resolution to continue his campaign in spite of the pathetic showing greatly complicate attempts to concentrate their support.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I must of missed something, but why did Paul the elder drop out in favor of Paul the younger?