Irish Elections and Referendums, 2015

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Recent announcements from the government have set some time in May 2015 for at least two referendums, which will concern:

1. Allowing and legalizing Gay Marriage
2. Reducing the age limit of candidates to the presidency from 35 to 21.

Furthermore there is a talk of a couple of other referendums that might be held at the same time concerning:

1. Reducing the voting age to 16
2. Establishing a special court for patent and intellectual property law
3. and possibly (though this is more speculative) a vote on removing article 41.2 from the constitution, which gives special recognition to 'Women in the home'

There is also a by-election due in Carlow-Kilkenny as sitting TD Phil Hogan (FG) is off to Brussels and the European Commission. It will probably be held on the same day as the first two referendums.

[ObserverIE]

Recent announcements from the government have set some time in May 2015 for at least two referendums, which will concern:

1. Allowing and legalizing Gay Marriage

Should pass, though not by the margins currently forecast by opinion polls. Margins on referendums to do with family/bedroom issues always narrow during the course of a campaign, through a mixture of FUD being sown by the conservative side and a version of the Bradley Effect. The Yes campaign will also have to overcome having a toxic Labour Party positioning itself at its front and centre (Ivana Bacik, Aodhán Ó Riordáin, etc.) and the fact that - unlike in the 80s and 90s referendums - the Yes campaign will be amply supplied with its own set of loons and headbangers in the guise of Social Justice Warriors, many of whom will insert themselves into the limelight *cough*Úna Mullally*cough*. Over 55% Yes would be a good result for the Yes campaign.

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This one is so off the wall and obviously irrelevant that I'm assuming it's only being held to soak up the protest vote from the SSM referendum. Will be defeated and handily so.

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Not a hope of any of these being held.

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[EPG]

Gay marriage should pass. It is leading polls by about 40%, which ought to mean it is 50/50 to pass. But it seems to be more a salient issue than other referendum topics like all that political reform palaver of 2011-13, which suggests to me that more people have decided opinions about this question, much as the European referendum polling has been more accurate in recent years as European questions became more frequent, topical and relevant. Ireland's frame of reference on politics is the UK and the USA, where this question has been debated for the last ten years.

I don't think individuals will matter either way. People have made up their minds about them, though I agree that women in Irish politics tend to be hated more than men.

Age of nomination is very clearly on the ballot to let people vote against the government on something and save gay marriage. I think it likely that a patent court referendum will happen in 2015, perhaps also in May, but that the other two proposals will not.

[ObserverIE]

Gay marriage should pass. It is leading polls by about 40%, which ought to mean it is 50/50 to pass. But it seems to be more a salient issue than other referendum topics like all that political reform palaver of 2011-13, which suggests to me that more people have decided opinions about this question, much as the European referendum polling has been more accurate in recent years as European questions became more frequent, topical and relevant. Ireland's frame of reference on politics is the UK and the USA, where this question has been debated for the last ten years.

While I would like to think that our attitudes on the issue are more socially liberal than in the UK, the US, France or even Finland, I am just about old enough to have sat through two divorce referendums where sizeable Yes leads reversed themselves or almost evaporated. I will believe a 40% Yes margin when I see it happening.

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I wasn't aware that I'd made that assertion.

Mullally came to mind because of her whingeing the other week in her Irish Times column about being silenced by being asked to appear on radio with people whom she doesn't agree with.

Bacik and Ó Riordáin are the two most prominent Labour SJWs, and I don't think people will have much patience for either Labour or SJWs in the current climate. In terms of sheer popular dislike, I imagine Pat Rabbitte or Phil Hogan comfortably outrank either.

[ObserverIE]

Same-sex marriage and presidential age referendums, along with the Carlow-Kilkenny by-election, set for May 22nd (a Friday), according to an RTÉ interview with Forrest Gump Enda Kenny last night.

Candidates selected so far in Carlow-Kilkenny:

Bobby Aylward (FF): a one-term TD until the 2011 deluge based in southern Kilkenny and the brother of another TD since elected to the European Parliament in 2009.

William Quinn (Lab): one of the fast-dwindling band of Labour county councillors based in County Carlow; may have the advantage (at least for the moment) of being the only Carlow-based candidate.

Kathleen Funchion (SF): general election candidate for the last two elections based in Kilkenny city.

[politicus]

74% in favour of gay marriage in ultimo March poll:

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/poll-shows-same-sex-marriage-referendum-could-be-close-1.2154967

Parties Yes/No:

Labour: 80/15 
Independents and small parties 71/20
Sinn Féin: 70/17
Fine Gael 59/27
Fianna Fáil 54/34

Reduce the age for presidential candidates:

62% No,
29% Yes
9% Dunno/Abstain

Only 18-24 olds in favour. Opposition lowest in Connacht and Ulster and highest in Dublin, which is a bit surprising.

[ObserverIE]

74% in favour of gay marriage in ultimo March poll:

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/poll-shows-same-sex-marriage-referendum-could-be-close-1.2154967

Parties Yes/No:

Labour: 80/15 
Independents and small parties 71/20
Sinn Féin: 70/17
Fine Gael 59/27
Fianna Fáil 54/34

Reduce the age for presidential candidates:

62% No,
29% Yes
9% Dunno/Abstain

Only 18-24 olds in favour. Opposition lowest in Connacht and Ulster and highest in Dublin, which is a bit surprising.

Detailed breakdown here.

[politicus]

Detailed breakdown here.

On page 31.

They got 65% Yes and 23% No, 9% Dunno and 3% Wont vote. So 74% of positive votesfor Yes.

[politicus]

An interesting aspect in the poll is how small the rural/urban divide is:

Urban:

67/22

Rural:

62/24

[Јas]

Two more polls on the Marriage Equality referendum were released recently:

Date	Poll	Yes	No	Don't Know
17 April	Amárach Research / RTÉ	77	14	9
25 April	Red C / Sunday Business Post	72	20	8

Some breakdown on the Amárach Research numbers:

[Zanas]

Any reason why Munster seems to be somewhat above average in same sex marriage support ?

[ObserverIE]

Any reason why Munster seems to be somewhat above average in same sex marriage support ?

You're dealing with sample sizes of app. 250 so differences of a few percentage points are not going to be meaningful.

[Јas]

More detail about the Red C / SBP poll from 25 April is now online:
http://www.redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/SBP-April-2015-Poll-Report-Same-Sex-Marriage.pdf


From their own commentary:

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[ilikeverin]

Just what I've always wanted to know!

I got:

1) Patrick McGee, Renua Ireland (45%) <-- handsome guy that one
2) William Quinn, Labour (43%)
3) Adrienne Wallace, People Before Profit (40%)
4) Conor Mac Liam, Anti-Austerity Alliance (35%)
4) Malcolm Noonan, Green (35%)
6) David Fitzgerald, Fine Gael (33%)
6) Breda Gardner, Independent (33%)
8) Daithí ÓhUallacháin, Independent (31%)
9) Kathleen Funchion, Sinn Féin (28%)
10) Elizabeth Hourihane, Independent (23%)
10) Bobby Aylward, Fianna Fáil (23%)

[MaxQue]

How lucky. AAA seems fishy.

1) Conor Mac Liam, Anti-Austerity Alliance (68%)
2) Adrienne Wallace, People Before Profit (65%)
3) Noel Walsh, Independent (57%)
4) William Quinn, Labour (55%)
4) Breda Gardner, Independent (55%)
4) Malcolm Noonan, Green (55%)
7) Elizabeth Hourihane, Independent (50%)
Kathleen Funchion, Sinn Féin (48%)
Daithí ÓhUallacháin, Independent (48%)
Bobby Aylward, Fianna Fáil (48%)
11) Patrick McGee, Renua Ireland (40%)
12) David Fitzgerald, Fine Gael (25%)

[ObserverIE]

AAA is the front organisation of the Socialist Party (Trotskyite sect - CWI I think).

[Clyde1998]

Conor Mac Liam - AAA - 83%
Adrienne Wallace - PBP - 70%
Noel G Walsh - Ind - 63%
Daithí ÓhUallacháin - Ind - 60%
Malcolm Noonan - Grn - 60%
William Quinn - Lab - 57%
Breda Gardner - Ind - 57%
Elizabeth Hourihane - Ind - 55%
Kathleen Funchion - SF - 55%
Bobby Aylward - FF - 48%
Patrick McKee - RI - 38%
David Fitzgerald - FG - 18%

[ObserverIE]

Thirteen-candidate debate on TV3 last night.

What could go wrong?

[minionofmidas]

Adrienne Wallace
People Before Profit
69%

Noel G Walsh
Independent
69%

Conor Mac Liam
Anti-Austerity Alliance
56%

Breda Gardner
Independent
56%

Kathleen Funchion
Sinn Féin
44%

Malcolm Noonan
Green
44%

Elizabeth Hourihane
Independent
44%

William Quinn
Labour
44%

Patrick McKee
Renua Ireland
44%

Daithí ÓhUallacháin
Independent
31%

Bobby Aylward
Fianna Fáil
25%

David Fitzgerald
Fine Gael
13%

Peter O'Loughlin
Independent
Did not share policy views.


I like how no real party scores over 50%.

[Boston Bread]

54% Labour
54% Green
51% Renua Ireland
51% People Before Profit
49% Anti-Austerity Alliance
46% Daithí ÓhUallacháin (I)
43% Noel G Wash (I)
40% Sinn Fein
37% Fianna Fail
37% Brenda Gardner (I)
31% Elizabeth Hourihane (I)
23% Fine Gael
0% Peter O'Loughlin (I)

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI poll in today's Irish Times on the same-sex marriage referendum (changes since last poll in March):

Yes 58 (-7)
No 25 (+2)
Don't Know 12 (+3)
Won't Vote 5 (+2)

Referendum on potential President Dougie Howser going down in flames as expected.

Other polls (and trends):

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Just to let everyone know, the vote for both referendums and the by-election is tomorrow.

Counting the result, however, will take place on Saturday.

[ObserverIE]

Reports so far of high turnout for this time of day in Dublin, which would bode well for Yes.

[Gustaf]

Can't believe No has had the momentum. My God.

This SHOULD still hold though, right? Right?

[ObserverIE]

Can't believe No has had the momentum. My God.

This SHOULD still hold though, right? Right?

Yes. As I said on the other thread, there should be enough goodwill and sense of "live and let live" among the general population to carry it through by at least 53-54%.

Announcements of support by Mary McAleese (former President and publicly Catholic) and Daniel O'Donnell (a very big Country and Irish star - think dansband but with more twangy guitars) will have helped to allay the effect of what otherwise tended to be a Dublin 4-talking-unto-Dublin 4 Yes campaign.

The one worry I have about a big Yes vote is that it may encourage the Dawkins fanboy/campus Left/Trotskyite fringes of the Yes side to demand more culture wars on issues where they are more likely to lose, albeit not before months of screeching on both sides.