Irish Elections and Referendums, 2015

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Can't believe No has had the momentum. My God.

This SHOULD still hold though, right? Right?

Yes. As I said on the other thread, there should be enough goodwill and sense of "live and let live" among the general population to carry it through by at least 53-54%.

Announcements of support by Mary McAleese (former President and publicly Catholic) and Daniel O'Donnell (a very big Country and Irish star - think dansband but with more twangy guitars) will have helped to allay the effect of what otherwise tended to be a Dublin 4-talking-unto-Dublin 4 Yes campaign.

The one worry I have about a big Yes vote is that it may encourage the Dawkins fanboy/campus Left/Trotskyite fringes of the Yes side to demand more culture wars on issues where they are more likely to lose, albeit not before months of screeching on both sides.

Speaking of which, have you heard the official reason Atheist Ireland came out for a 'No' vote in the Presidential Age referendum?

Because the referendum would not abolish the oath in which the President has to swear unto God. Seriously, yes.

[danny]

trying to judge Irish politics, no party is very close to me:

Patrick McKee
Renua Ireland
59%

Breda Gardner
Independent
38%

David Fitzgerald
Fine Gael
38%

William Quinn
Labour
34%

Adrienne Wallace
People Before Profit
34%

Malcolm Noonan
Green
31%

Noel G Walsh
Independent
31%

Conor Mac Liam
Anti-Austerity Alliance
31%

Kathleen Funchion
Sinn Féin
28%

Elizabeth Hourihane
Independent
28%

Bobby Aylward
Fianna Fáil
28%

Daithí ÓhUallacháin
Independent
25%

[Phony Moderate]

Were No to win then the polls for the UK general election would look fantastic in comparison.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Were No to win then the polls for the UK general election would look fantastic in comparison.

Irish referendum polls are usually wrong.

[ObserverIE]

Can't believe No has had the momentum. My God.

This SHOULD still hold though, right? Right?

Yes. As I said on the other thread, there should be enough goodwill and sense of "live and let live" among the general population to carry it through by at least 53-54%.

Announcements of support by Mary McAleese (former President and publicly Catholic) and Daniel O'Donnell (a very big Country and Irish star - think dansband but with more twangy guitars) will have helped to allay the effect of what otherwise tended to be a Dublin 4-talking-unto-Dublin 4 Yes campaign.

The one worry I have about a big Yes vote is that it may encourage the Dawkins fanboy/campus Left/Trotskyite fringes of the Yes side to demand more culture wars on issues where they are more likely to lose, albeit not before months of screeching on both sides.

Speaking of which, have you heard the official reason Atheist Ireland came out for a 'No' vote in the Presidential Age referendum?

Because the referendum would not abolish the oath in which the President has to swear unto God. Seriously, yes.

I had heard that.

I'm only surprised that Michael Nugent (Arch-Community Songster of Atheist Ireland to Dawkins' Pope) could take enough time out from his Twitterspat with P.Z. Myers to issue a fatwa.

35% turnout in my very rural north Longford polling station at 7pm. 51% at 9.30.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Polls are now closed.

Counting will start tomorrow at 10AM GMT. Official Results expected at about 4PM GMT. However, we should know the basic outline well before then.

[ObserverIE]

Looking like a national figure of 60/40 or so. The No campaign has already conceded on RTÉ Radio.

Twitter hashtags are #marref and #marref2015.

[Ebsy]

Can't wait for the maps from this.

[Gustaf]

Can't believe No has had the momentum. My God.

This SHOULD still hold though, right? Right?

Yes. As I said on the other thread, there should be enough goodwill and sense of "live and let live" among the general population to carry it through by at least 53-54%.

Announcements of support by Mary McAleese (former President and publicly Catholic) and Daniel O'Donnell (a very big Country and Irish star - think dansband but with more twangy guitars) will have helped to allay the effect of what otherwise tended to be a Dublin 4-talking-unto-Dublin 4 Yes campaign.

The one worry I have about a big Yes vote is that it may encourage the Dawkins fanboy/campus Left/Trotskyite fringes of the Yes side to demand more culture wars on issues where they are more likely to lose, albeit not before months of screeching on both sides.

This sounds horrific. How come you're familiar with the term dansband?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So from what I'm hearing it appears that Yes is leading in most rural constituencies too.

[ObserverIE]

Can't believe No has had the momentum. My God.

This SHOULD still hold though, right? Right?

Yes. As I said on the other thread, there should be enough goodwill and sense of "live and let live" among the general population to carry it through by at least 53-54%.

Announcements of support by Mary McAleese (former President and publicly Catholic) and Daniel O'Donnell (a very big Country and Irish star - think dansband but with more twangy guitars) will have helped to allay the effect of what otherwise tended to be a Dublin 4-talking-unto-Dublin 4 Yes campaign.

The one worry I have about a big Yes vote is that it may encourage the Dawkins fanboy/campus Left/Trotskyite fringes of the Yes side to demand more culture wars on issues where they are more likely to lose, albeit not before months of screeching on both sides.

This sounds horrific. How come you're familiar with the term dansband?

I come from a part of the country which is Country and Irish Central. It developed out of the showband scene of the 1960s and 1970s, which would be even closer to dansband, I think. Came across the Scandinavian version by accident.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

On the other elections - it looks like reducing the President's age will be defeated and the Carlow-Kilkenny by-election is legitimately close, with a surprisingly good showing for the Labour Party candidate.

[ObserverIE]

On the other elections - it looks like reducing the President's age will be defeated and the Carlow-Kilkenny by-election is legitimately close, with a surprisingly good showing for the Labour Party candidate.

The only tallies so far in Carlow-Kilkenny have come from Carlow. The Labour candidate is the only one of the main candidates from Carlow (the other Carlow-based candidates are a Trot and a crypto-Nazi) and still seems to be in fifth place. I wouldn't extrapolate that showing to Kilkenny.

[MaxQue]

Looking like a national figure of 60/40 or so. The No campaign has already conceded on RTÉ Radio.

Twitter hashtags are #marref and #marref2015.

In such a case, would No win most rural areas? Only some? I mean, in term of counties/counting areas.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Looking like a national figure of 60/40 or so. The No campaign has already conceded on RTÉ Radio.

Twitter hashtags are #marref and #marref2015.

In such a case, would No win most rural areas? Only some? I mean, in term of counties/counting areas.

From tallies it is possible that YES will win all 43 constituencies - even the two Donegal ones are showing YES leads.

[ObserverIE]

Looking like a national figure of 60/40 or so. The No campaign has already conceded on RTÉ Radio.

Twitter hashtags are #marref and #marref2015.

In such a case, would No win most rural areas? Only some? I mean, in term of counties/counting areas.

From tallies it is possible that YES will win all 43 constituencies - even the two Donegal ones are showing YES leads.

Roscommon-South Leitrim seems to be heading for a NO, and there will be a large set of rural areas where YES is likely to be in the 50s.

For comparison, this is the result from the 1995 divorce referendum, which YES won nationally by 50.2:



A couple of live box-by-box tallies:

Galway West
Kerry North - West Limerick
Longford-Westmeath

[ObserverIE]

Dublin North West
Yes: 20,919 (70.4) No: 8,814 (29.6)
Turnout: 59.5

[Tetro Kornbluth]

First Result in:

Dublin North West
Yes - 20,919 (70.4%)
No - 8,814 (29.6%)

[Clyde1998]

Map based on the tally reports:

[Clyde1998]

RTÉ saying on Twitter that Dublin Northwest is not a confirmed result.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Tallies from Wicklow by ward

[Clyde1998]

Does it usually take this long to get a result in Ireland?

[Clyde1998]

Dublin West
Yes - 29,665 (71%)
No - 12,229 (29%)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Does it usually take this long to get a result in Ireland?

Yes.

[Clyde1998]

The Presidential Age referendum is likely to be a 'no' vote.