Irish Elections and Referendums, 2015

[afleitch]

It's done.

[cp]

When exactly did Ireland cease to be the ultra-Catholic society we all seem to vaguely think it is?

When Jedward appeared on Eurovision

[DL]

So equal marriage is now enshrined in Canada, New Zealand, the UK, South Africa and most states in the US - leaving only Australia as a socially conservative backwater on this issue. How much longer before Australia "gets with the program"?

[minionofmidas]

Final tally from Carlow-Kilkenny

FF 28.0
FG 21.1
SF 16.1
Renua 9.4
Lab 6.5
GP 5.4
Ind Gardiner 4.4
SWP t/a PBP 3.4
SP t/a AAA 3.2
Others 2.6

Actual first count result. Some tallypersons only reported the major candidates I guess?
FF 27.8
FG 20.6
SF 16.2
Renua 9.5
Lab 7.0
Green 5.3
Gardner 4.2
PBP 3.6
AAA 3.3
four other indies (jointly eliminated) 2.7 - that would have included my vote, I liked Holohan's debate performance so!

[politicallefty]

What an amazing and decisive victory for equal rights. I really have to applaud the people of Ireland. As a foreigner, I am quite curious. Why was this a national referendum in the first place? Could this not be passed through normal legislative means or is a national referendum used to give a cause more meaning?

So equal marriage is now enshrined in Canada, New Zealand, the UK, South Africa and most states in the US - leaving only Australia as a socially conservative backwater on this issue. How much longer before Australia "gets with the program"?

With SCOTUS likely to approve of gay marriage in all 50 states in about a month, the real lone outliers in the remainder of the Anglosphere will be Australia and Northern Ireland.

[Tender Branson]

Despite the big win in Ireland, gay-marriage is still overpolling:

In the last few polls before the referendum (excl. "undecided"), about 70-73% said they'll vote YES.

On election day, only 62% did.

This continues the trend seen in referendums in Slovenia, Croatia and Slovakia.

That's not good news for possible future referendums on this issue in other countries where the polls could show a close race and then voters end up rejecting gay marriage.

[Clyde1998]

Despite the big win in Ireland, gay-marriage is still overpolling:

In the last few polls before the referendum (excl. "undecided"), about 70-73% said they'll vote YES.

On election day, only 62% did.

This continues the trend seen in referendums in Slovenia, Croatia and Slovakia.

That's not good news for possible future referendums on this issue in other countries where the polls could show a close race and then voters end up rejecting gay marriage.

Undecided voters are likely to swing back to the Status Quo on the day.

How many undecided voters were there in the polls?

[Tender Branson]

Despite the big win in Ireland, gay-marriage is still overpolling:

In the last few polls before the referendum (excl. "undecided"), about 70-73% said they'll vote YES.

On election day, only 62% did.

This continues the trend seen in referendums in Slovenia, Croatia and Slovakia.

That's not good news for possible future referendums on this issue in other countries where the polls could show a close race and then voters end up rejecting gay marriage.

Undecided voters are likely to swing back to the Status Quo on the day.

How many undecided voters were there in the polls?

Between 6-23%.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

What an amazing and decisive victory for equal rights. I really have to applaud the people of Ireland. As a foreigner, I am quite curious. Why was this a national referendum in the first place? Could this not be passed through normal legislative means or is a national referendum used to give a cause more meaning?

Because all changes to the constitution require a referendum it's.... in the constitution. And there was enough ambiguities about the position of marriage in the constitution that without this referendum it would have been up to the courts to determine the constitutionality of gay marriage, and right-wing campaigners are well known to putting up endless legal challenges to legislation they don't like.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Oh, in the other referendum 10 constituencies have declared and pretty much all of them say the same thing: Victory for NO by about 75-25. No Dublin seat has declared yet though.

[Boston Bread]

It might be overpolling because turnout is lower among young people and higher among older people. Whereas both are equally likely to answer a poll if they are reached. And we know which group is more likely to oppose/support same sex marriage.


Anyways, congrats Ireland!

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The Final Result

[BaconBacon96]

What's that lone red constituency called?

[Ebsy]

What's that lone red constituency called?

Roscommon.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

What's that lone red constituency called?

Roscommon.

Not quite. It's Roscommon-South Leitrim

[Ebowed]

Nice result

[ObserverIE]

When exactly did Ireland cease to be the ultra-Catholic society we all seem to vaguely think it is?

It still is quite a Catholic society in terms of things such as religious affiliation, church attendance and cultural ambience - certainly by the standards of most of Europe.

But as I said earlier, gay marriage and gay rights are not anywhere near as contentious an issue in Irish society as abortion or secularism, on which issues median attitudes would still be very conservative by European and even American standards.

And on the other hand, in spite of a severe recession which has seen large numbers of young people having to emigrate - especially in rural areas - and very large-scale immigration in a short period of time (10-15% of the population are recent newcomers who have arrived in the space of around 15 years), anti-migrant sentiment has very little appeal. The candidate running on the issue yesterday in Carlow-Kilkenny got 930 votes out of 67,000.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Following on from what ObserverIE said while Ireland is politically a quite conservative country in the sense of 'not radical' and being somewhat wary of 'progressive' change - the two dominant parties in Irish parties in Irish history couldn't have been Fianna Fail and Fine Gael otherwise - there is a very little appetite for out and out reactionary politics, as this campaign and the aforementioned lack of anti-migration sentiment shows*.

(* - one possible exception - and it is an unusual one unique to Ireland - is the animus towards the Irish Traveller population).

[ObserverIE]

The story so far from Carlow-Kilkenny:

FF	18,572	18,713	18,845	19,223	19,480	19,898	20,950	22,826	26,529
FG	13,744	13,826	13,895	14,174	14,289	15,058	16,612	18,875	21,632
SF	10,806	11,006	11,501	11,974	13,113	13,879	14,632	16,437
Renua	6,365	6,530	6,736	7,225	7,678	8,532	9,269
Lab	4,673	4,803	4,853	4,954	5,252	5,775
GP	3,549	3,651	3,836	4,257	4,528
Ind Gardiner	2,792	3,016	3,226
SWP	2,377	2,644	3,256	3,640
SP	2,194	2,296
Identity	930
Ind Holohan	374
Ind Walsh	243
Ind Hourihane	215

FF actually slightly more transfer-friendly than FG here, which speaks volumes. They're able to recycle an undistinguished former TD, much to the discomfort of the sitting FF TD for the constituency, and much to the delight of the party leadership to whom the previously-mentioned TD has been a long-term pain in the ass.

FG had been fortunate in the last two by-elections they defended; they were running female relatives of TDs who had died tragically (suicide and motor neurone disease respectively), the FF candidate in Longford-Westmeath was a nepotistically-appointed dud, the two SF candidates were weak, and the independent vote in Longford-Westmeath was geographically splintered. This time, they were running a candidate to succeed a former government minister identified with an unpopular signature policy who was decamping to a very well-paid job in Brussels. The result was that they got walloped, albeit not as badly as their doormatsjunior coalition partners.

Solid performance from SF, making them likely to pick up the Labour seat here next time, and proving more transfer-friendly than FG even if they weren't able to overhaul them.

Good performance for #Lucinda, running an attractive (if opportunistic) candidate who had the notable point of being a gay candidate running for a party identified with social conservatism.

Appalling performance for Labour. They've spent the last four years focussed on social liberalism but flopped in a by-election held on the same day as a successful referendum on their signature issue.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Bobby Aylward (FF) has won the Carlow-Kilkenny by-election as expected. Full figures to come later.

[ottermax]

Can someone explain who a typical FF voter is and who a typical FG voter is? Irish parties seem quite unique from the rest of the world.

[Adam Griffin]

Well, I wanted to do a more detailed gradient map and I thought I had found a large map template that matched the 2011-2016 constituencies map - and at quick glance, it seemingly did - but a bit of the way in, I realized it did not. Nevertheless and especially when compared to the types of redistricting I'm used to, the majority of geography of each constituency (save for Limerick City, perhaps) lines up pretty well. Maybe someone can transfer the colors over or replicate a similar one, because I am far too sad after this attempt to try again.

[Famous Mortimer]

Can someone explain who a typical FF voter is and who a typical FG voter is? Irish parties seem quite unique from the rest of the world.

I'm sure Irish people will come yell at me for being wrong, but my general impression is:

FF: More urban, rich, social liberal, pro-big business, corporate welfare

FG: More rural, working class, social conservative, pro-small business, low taxes

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Well FF have largely jettisoned their urban voters after 2011 - Bertiemania was an atypical craze in the capital. I would argue the the parties are the other way round: FG is an unusually idiosyncratic liberal-conservative party which draws its strength from the middle class; while FF is a populist bandwagon jumping party comparable to French Gaullism.

perhaps we can compare Irish politics to post-Civil War America in some respects - very heterogenous parties based on your ancestors' stance on a civil conflict. At the moment a lot of old assumptions about the parties are in flux of course, so you will get a lot of conflicting arguments.

I'm mainly surprised FF did so well on the preferences.

[ObserverIE]

Can someone explain who a typical FF voter is and who a typical FG voter is? Irish parties seem quite unique from the rest of the world.

Old thread with attempted explanations here