Irish Elections and Referendums, 2015

[ObserverIE]

Well FF have largely jettisoned their urban voters after 2011 - Bertiemania was an atypical craze in the capital. I would argue the the parties are the other way round: FG is an unusually idiosyncratic liberal-conservative party which draws its strength from the middle class; while FF is a populist bandwagon jumping party comparable to French Gaullism.

FF were always strong in working-class and lower middle-class Dublin, particularly in the northern suburbs. Before Bertie, there was Charlie Haughey; before him, there was Lemass.

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Other parties have caught up with them in relative unpopularity.

[Famous Mortimer]

Irish politics would sort of make sense if Labor formed coalitions with FF instead of FG.

[ObserverIE]

Irish politics would sort of make sense if Labor formed coalitions with FF instead of FG.

On the one occasion that they did, the Irish Times and the intelligentsia threw a tantrum that lasted the length of the government. Labour lost half their seats in the following election and have since kept well away.

But in any case, Labour are unlikely to have the numbers to form a significant part of any government for at least the next decade after they get Clegged next year.

[Famous Mortimer]

Why did they throw a tantrum though? Why don't the intelligentsia mind FG?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Why did they throw a tantrum though? Why don't the intelligentsia mind FG?

'Dublin 4' and a certain type of Irish Times reader, one who writes into the letters page a lot, do not like Fianna Fail.

Although I will add it is not really clear what did it for Labour in 1997, whether it was reversion to the mean, betrayal over supporting FF or betrayal over being coalition with FF and then switching to supporting the Rainbow government of 1994-1997 (John Bruton in 1994 became Taoiseach without being elected, he got Labour to switch sides in the house and Democratic Left joined them. In 1992 that wasn't a majority but thanks to by-elections in 1994 it was).

[ObserverIE]

President Dougie Howser results here.

Highest Yes votes:

Dublin South-East 37.62
Dublin Central 36.61
Dublin South-Central 34.28
Dublin South 32.49
Dún Laoghaire 31.30

(13 of the 14 highest Yes votes were in Dublin, the one exception being nearby Wicklow.)

Lowest Yes votes:

Limerick County 22.89
Tipperary South 22.85
Roscommon-South Leitrim 22.50
Galway East 22.43
Kerry South 21.97

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Unsurprisingly perhaps Dublin South East was the most YES for both referendums.

[Kushahontas]

President Dougie Howser results here.

Highest Yes votes:

Dublin South-East 37.62
Dublin Central 36.61
Dublin South-Central 34.28
Dublin South 32.49
Dún Laoghaire 31.30

(13 of the 14 highest Yes votes were in Dublin, the one exception being nearby Wicklow.)

Lowest Yes votes:

Limerick County 22.89
Tipperary South 22.85
Roscommon-South Leitrim 22.50
Galway East 22.43
Kerry South 21.97

Why is this referendum question much less popular?

[ObserverIE]

President Dougie Howser results here.

Highest Yes votes:

Dublin South-East 37.62
Dublin Central 36.61
Dublin South-Central 34.28
Dublin South 32.49
Dún Laoghaire 31.30

(13 of the 14 highest Yes votes were in Dublin, the one exception being nearby Wicklow.)

Lowest Yes votes:

Limerick County 22.89
Tipperary South 22.85
Roscommon-South Leitrim 22.50
Galway East 22.43
Kerry South 21.97

Why is this referendum question much less popular?

Because it was viewed as a total irrelevance.

[afleitch]

The 'Chorch' isn't too happy.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/26/vatican-ireland-gay-marriage-referendum-vote-defeat-for-humanity.

'A senior Vatican official has attacked the legalisation of gay marriage in Ireland. The referendum that overwhelmingly backed marriage equality last weekend was a “defeat for humanity”, he claimed...on Tuesday, with his choice of words, Parolin differed from the pope in one respect: the Argentinian pontiff has also used the phrase “defeat for humanity”, but he was talking about war, not the legalisation of gay marriage.'

[Torie]

The 'Chorch' isn't too happy.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/26/vatican-ireland-gay-marriage-referendum-vote-defeat-for-humanity.

'A senior Vatican official has attacked the legalisation of gay marriage in Ireland. The referendum that overwhelmingly backed marriage equality last weekend was a “defeat for humanity”, he claimed...on Tuesday, with his choice of words, Parolin differed from the pope in one respect: the Argentinian pontiff has also used the phrase “defeat for humanity”, but he was talking about war, not the legalisation of gay marriage.'

What I found most arresting in the article, is the Vatican's refusal to date to accept the credentials of the gay man France chose as its ambassador to the Vatican. Just what the Church's theological grounds for that are one escapes me. And I'm surprised that has not garnered more press attention. Maybe folks care are less interested about what the Vatican says or does these days.

[freefair]

I get the opposite impression, save for Low Taxes and Corporate Welfare?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

There will be a by-election for the Seanad on 13th November. Normally I wouldn't bump for this dumb chamber, but Labour's candidate is making some news: it's Maira Cahill the women raped as a child by the IRA, and now causing Sinn Fein leadership some headaches.

[ObserverIE]

There will be a by-election for the Seanad on 13th November. Normally I wouldn't bump for this dumb chamber, but Labour's candidate is making some news: it's Maira Cahill the women raped as a child by the IRA, and now causing Sinn Fein leadership some headaches.

Labour are staring electoral oblivion in the face and have obviously decided to try to go nuclear on SF in the hope of rescuing something from the wreckage.

I'm not personally convinced that this is the master-stroke that Labour and the SF-phobic chattering classes think it is.

[Oakvale]

If we must have a Senate I for one am glad it's being used to troll shinners

[ObserverIE]

Renua propose abolishing motor tax, the television licence (making RTÉ rely solely on commercial revenue so that it can compete with the beacons of excellence that are TV3 and UTV Ireland), and replacing income tax and social contributions with a 23% flat tax applied to all income including social welfare payments such as pensions and unemployment benefit (employers' social contributions would also be abolished).

There would be no exemption level so even the lowest earners would be hit, but apparently there would be a sliding scale of tax rebates so that low-paid workers would not be hit too severely, but those contract cleaners and petrol station attendants are to be told to work harder and for longer in order to retain their current income.

"TheJournal Politics Verified account
‏@TJ_Politics

Lucinda: Flat tax will provide greater employment… those on low pay will have incentive to work more hours and work harder #budget16"

https://twitter.com/TJ_Politics/status/650983062629695488

Minimum wage earners tend to be disproportionately foreign workers (with no vote) and even those lower earners who are Irish citizens tend to be less likely to vote. Lucinda knows who she's appealing to and who doesn't matter.

There would be a severe shortfall in tax income as a result, but this would be filled by massive cuts in health, education and social protection expenditure magic beans dynamic growth as a result of animal spirits being liberated.

[Oakvale]

Apparently they published the proposal on, er, LinkedIn, which is just perfect.

[ObserverIE]

Apparently they published the proposal on, er, LinkedIn, which is just perfect.

As I said, they know who they're appealing to.

It's always unwise to underestimate the amount of greed, selfishness, self-pity and short-sightedness in any country.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Renua propose abolishing motor tax, the television licence (making RTÉ rely solely on commercial revenue so that it can compete with the beacons of excellence that are TV3 and UTV Ireland), and replacing income tax and social contributions with a 23% flat tax applied to all income including social welfare payments such as pensions and unemployment benefit (employers' social contributions would also be abolished).

There would be no exemption level so even the lowest earners would be hit, but apparently there would be a sliding scale of tax rebates so that low-paid workers would not be hit too severely, but those contract cleaners and petrol station attendants are to be told to work harder and for longer in order to retain their current income.

"TheJournal Politics Verified account
‏@TJ_Politics

Lucinda: Flat tax will provide greater employment… those on low pay will have incentive to work more hours and work harder #budget16"

https://twitter.com/TJ_Politics/status/650983062629695488

Minimum wage earners tend to be disproportionately foreign workers (with no vote) and even those lower earners who are Irish citizens tend to be less likely to vote. Lucinda knows who she's appealing to and who doesn't matter.

There would be a severe shortfall in tax income as a result, but this would be filled by massive cuts in health, education and social protection expenditure magic beans dynamic growth as a result of animal spirits being liberated.

Well I was struggling to decide in the all important and highly contested battle for my final preference between FF, SF and the various Far left groups but now after this news RENUA has leaped far ahead. However, given that there will inevitably be more policy announcements for the various parties of the next couple of months I expect the other parties to up their game in this contest and make it close again.

[ObserverIE]

Well I was struggling to decide in the all important and highly contested battle for my final preference between FF, SF and the various Far left groups but now after this news RENUA has leaped far ahead. However, given that there will inevitably be more policy announcements for the various parties of the next couple of months I expect the other parties to up their game in this contest and make it close again.

As you asked:

http://www.independent.ie/business/jobs/bruton-wants-30pc-emigrant-tax-to-lure-highly-skilled-back-to-ireland-31580155.html

This version of a flat tax, proposed by the Pinky Brains of the [REDACTED] party would only apply to those returned emigrants and new immigrants earning €60K or more (lower-earning plebs would pay higher tax rates). Baldy Noonan has shot it down, at least for the moment.

*Takes deep breath*

From where I'm standing, FF actually now look less off-putting than either the [REDACTED] party or the "we'll accept absolutely anything, no matter how right-wing, as long as we get some culture war brownie points" excuse for a social democratic party that I'm embarrassed to say I've usually voted for in the past.

There, I've said it.

[Leftbehind]

From where I'm standing, FF actually now look less off-putting than either the [REDACTED] party or the "we'll accept absolutely anything, no matter how right-wing, as long as we get some culture war brownie points" excuse for a social democratic party that I'm embarrassed to say I've usually voted for in the past.

There, I've said it.

I'm sure this is exactly what the Irish public had in mind when they launched them into the chief opposition in those heady days of 2011. Why did they even coalesce with FG if they were just going to act as enablers and grant them a super-majority? A minority FG would've at least had some viable opposition, and Labour best placed to break the FF/FG duopoly in years.

A FF vote wouldn't enable FG like these quislings, I'll at least give them that. I don't understand how these eternal Nick Cleggs have survived, or what the Irish did to deserve such a f**king awful Labour party.

[ObserverIE]

From where I'm standing, FF actually now look less off-putting than either the [REDACTED] party or the "we'll accept absolutely anything, no matter how right-wing, as long as we get some culture war brownie points" excuse for a social democratic party that I'm embarrassed to say I've usually voted for in the past.

There, I've said it.

I'm sure this is exactly what the Irish public had in mind when they launched them into the chief opposition in those heady days of 2011. Why did they even coalesce with FG if they were just going to act as enablers and grant them a super-majority? A minority FG would've at least had some viable opposition, and Labour best placed to break the FF/FG duopoly in years.

But you see, without Labour in government to temper FG's Thatcherite instincts, all this would have happened...

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They've always had a wing who were mainly focused on secularism rather than socialism (how else do you think they've managed to hold a seat in Dublin South East almost continuously since 1977?) but it's never been as overwhelming until now. And this is with the largest ever number of Labour TDs.

There was a brief interval of hope for something more recognisably leftish after Gilmore was replaced by Burton, but she's just ended up repeating the same mistakes.

The organised left alternatives at this stage are a SF still carrying round the baggage of a twenty five-year civil war and detested by the establishment and a temporary little arrangement of two mutually antagonistic Trot factions.

[YL]

The organised left alternatives at this stage are a SF still carrying round the baggage of a twenty five-year civil war and detested by the establishment and a temporary little arrangement of two mutually antagonistic Trot factions.

Have the Social Democrats sunk without trace?

[ObserverIE]

The organised left alternatives at this stage are a SF still carrying round the baggage of a twenty five-year civil war and detested by the establishment and a temporary little arrangement of two mutually antagonistic Trot factions.

Have the Social Democrats sunk without trace?

They've announced about half a dozen prospective candidates, including an ex-Labour senator, a couple of local councillors who were elected last year as independents, and the woman whose TV debate questions helped derail the Seán Gallagher presidential election back in 2011. They have a presence on social media, but what they don't seem to have is any local infrastructure beyond support groups for their three TDs.

[ObserverIE]

There's been an off-stage row between FG and Labour over the last couple of weeks about the date of the election, conducted in theatrical whispers across the national media.

FG, enticed by the prospect of the announcement of the first seriously expansionary budget in eight years, were publicly musing about calling the election immediately after the budget, with a date pencilled in for mid/late November. The option was apparently being pushed by Michael Noonan (finance minister) and by the political advisers and party operatives around Enda Kenny. A November election would allow FG to take the credit for the tax cuts and old age pension increases announced today (as well as going to the country before the inevitable winter hospital crises) and allow them to retain enough seats to have a chance of forming the next government without having to rely too much on independents or what would be left of...

Labour, who were absolutely furious at the prospect of having their annihilation brought forward from February to November and made this opposition clear in no uncertain terms. After a week of semi-public squaring-up between the parties, Kenny gave one of his extremely rare but reliably wooden interviews to RTÉ on Sunday saying that he didn't see any circumstances in which he would be calling an early election.

Labour are cock a hoop:

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(http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/kenny-likely-to-brush-off-election-date-controversy-1.2387827).

They may have rolled over for FG on economic issues for the last four and a half years and reneged on all the issues that they campaigned on last time, but when it comes to preserving their own necks for a few months more, they can be relied upon to "pull their weight".