CA-Gov: Turnout between 2010 and 2014
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  CA-Gov: Turnout between 2010 and 2014
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Author Topic: CA-Gov: Turnout between 2010 and 2014  (Read 993 times)
politicallefty
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« on: December 20, 2014, 02:44:38 PM »
« edited: December 20, 2014, 02:46:27 PM by politicallefty »

In another topic, I noticed how much turnout in California had fallen between 2010 and 2014. For example, Jerry Brown 2014 would have only beaten Meg Whitman 2010 by about 3%. That may not seem like that big of a deal. However, Brown 2014 represented 60% of the electorate, while Whitman 2010 was just under 41%.

Turnout for the gubernatorial election in 2014 was 72.5% of the total turnout of 2010. The comparison for Brown is with himself four years prior and Kashkari is compared to Whitman. As for statewide first:

Brown 80.84%
Kashkari 70.97%

Top 5 BrownTop 5 Kashkari
Sierra106.93%Del Norte104.92%
San Benito104.21%Lassen99.50%
Shasta103.42%Kings97.89%
Nevada101.14%Inyo91.37%
Santa Barbara99.85%Mariposa89.47%

Bottom 5 BrownBottom 5 Kashkari
Lassen56.82%San Francisco53.80%
Los Angeles67.22%San Mateo57.24%
San Bernardino68.03%Marin58.69%
Trinity69.47%Santa Clara59.94%
Modoc76.92%Alameda61.18%

Only one county in the entire state gave Kashkari a higher vote total over Whitman: Del Norte. Based on what I can tell, this seems to have largely been a result of Brown's strong vote in the county in 2010. As for why Brown ran so strong in the usually Republican-leaning county in 2010, I cannot say why. Brown exceeded his 2010 vote margin in four counties. I think the most noteworthy is Nevada County. A county that voted for President Obama in 2008 and failed to do so in 2012, nor in 2010 for Brown, it has come back to the Democratic fold in 2014. I have to wonder if this will be the new paradigm, with Nevada County joining the other mountain counties of Alpine and Mono in the Democratic camp.

Kashkari ran horrendously weak in the Bay Area, particularly the South Bay (i.e. Silicon Valley). There was clearly an obvious Whitman effect to a certain extent (as she was from the South Bay). However, Brown also hit record margins in the Bay Area overall, surpassing even President Obama's numbers.

Governor Brown's statewide margins in 2014 were clearly limited by sub-par results in Southern California, particularly very populous Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties. Neither county gave the results that would have been typical in a current Democratic 60% landslide. (The only thing saving LA County from a Republican swing or even trend was an even further Republican vote drop in the county than the Democratic one.)
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Vega
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« Reply #1 on: December 20, 2014, 02:47:38 PM »

I'm just glad that Brown managed to crack 60%, even if barely.

Kashkari would be great in a "behind the scenes" type role.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #2 on: December 20, 2014, 02:55:00 PM »

I'm just glad that Brown managed to crack 60%, even if barely.

Kashkari would be great in a "behind the scenes" type role.

He didn't. He got 4.388.368 votes against 2.929.213 for Kashkari. 59.97%
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Vega
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: December 20, 2014, 02:55:49 PM »

I'm just glad that Brown managed to crack 60%, even if barely.

Kashkari would be great in a "behind the scenes" type role.

He didn't. He got 4.388.368 votes against 2.929.213 for Kashkari. 59.97%

Hmm, someone should fix the Wikipedia results.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: December 20, 2014, 04:34:26 PM »

I'm just glad that Brown managed to crack 60%, even if barely.

Kashkari would be great in a "behind the scenes" type role.

He didn't. He got 4.388.368 votes against 2.929.213 for Kashkari. 59.97%

That might matter on an Atlas prediction, but in the real world everyone's rounding that to 60. Tongue
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DrScholl
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« Reply #5 on: December 20, 2014, 05:19:22 PM »

The official results from the Secretary of State list the total as 60%.
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: December 21, 2014, 01:11:30 AM »

I'm just glad that Brown managed to crack 60%, even if barely.

Kashkari would be great in a "behind the scenes" type role.

He didn't. He got 4.388.368 votes against 2.929.213 for Kashkari. 59.97%

That might matter on an Atlas prediction, but in the real world everyone's rounding that to 60. Tongue

I would agree, wouldn't it be for a frantic desire on parts of some partisan Democrats to surpass 60% even by 1/10000)))
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: December 21, 2014, 01:18:05 AM »

The official results from the Secretary of State list the total as 60%.

It's obviously rounded. I believe in simple arithmetic more)))) (i took raw numbers from the same source)
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CountryClassSF
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« Reply #8 on: December 21, 2014, 10:51:03 AM »

The official results from the Secretary of State list the total as 60%.

It's obviously rounded. I believe in simple arithmetic more)))) (i took raw numbers from the same source)

If its rounded its 60-40.   (Nearly) Vermont, Maryland, Illinois,  Massachusetts...and then there's CA. Kashkari was Dem-lite too.  I'm pretty sure our state is in its own universe!

It looks like 11% is the new average post-Prop 14 for Republicans here in the City. 
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DrScholl
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« Reply #9 on: December 21, 2014, 12:09:23 PM »

The official results from the Secretary of State list the total as 60%.

It's obviously rounded. I believe in simple arithmetic more)))) (i took raw numbers from the same source)

It's statistically insignificant, really. It's kind of silly to quibble about it, but whatever.
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #10 on: December 21, 2014, 12:34:38 PM »

It was a reply to concrete post of MW Rep Vega. More precisely - to his words "I'm just glad that Brown managed to crack 60%, even if barely.". As a Ph. D i like true statements, so i have shown that it's not completely true...
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