Who's next in line to get west-virginianized?

[Oregreen]

I know that there aren't many possibilities (if any), but which state will be west-virginianized next (Which previously Democratic state (at the national and/or state level) will be turning Republican soon, as happened with West Virginia)?
By the way: I chose west-virginianized as a contrast to virginianized. Could have also said arkansased which probably would have fitted better since West Virginia still has some high-ranking Democrats. I know that it sounds silly LOL.

Missouri: still has a Democratic governor and one Democratic senator
Iowa: may be shifting soon because of demographics if Democrats lose even more white voters, already has 2 Republican senators, a Republican governor as well as a Republican-controlled House
Pennsylvania: population decrease, has been trending slightly R for quite a while
Kentucky: still has a Democratic governor and a Democratic-controlled House

[Mehmentum]

Missouri and Kentucky have already/are in the process of shifting R.

The evidence that Pennsylvania is trending R isn't that convincing. In 2012, its PVI was D + 1.48, which is the lowest its been since 1996, when it was D +0.7.  The PVI has been decreasing since 2004, but its not clear if this is a real trend or random fluctuations.

Iowa is interesting.  Its demographics would tell you that its a Republican leaning state, yet its consistently been a swing state.  I don't think that's going to change, but I suppose we'll have to see how 2016 will play out.
 

[Kraxner]

Kentucky was already west-virginiaized at the federal level, but statewide the party in legislative and gubernatorial races survived. despite voting in large margins for republican presidential candidates.  I predict this will start to change.

Missouri on the otherhand had obama got the nader voters he would of barely won that state.

Pennsylvania on the otherhand will be a weak lean democrat state for the near future despite the slow shift of pennsylvania born whites to the GOP. Since Northeasterners in pennsylvania tend to be more liberal.  However a perfect GOP candidate might manage an indiana-2008 style break through there in the future.

[pikachu]

Kentucky's already lost and is already "west-virginianized". Iowa is a swing state for the foreseeable future, barring some massive realignment with upper midwestern whites. Missouri and Pennsylvania will be interesting to watch in 2016. Missouri to see how lost it is for Democrats, while we also get to see how exactly PA without Obama. Casey was still able to win some SWPA counties in 2012, even with his non-existent campaigning and Tom Wolf actually performed better in Fayette and Greene than he did in Bucks, Chester, Berks, and a lot of other Eastern Pennsylvania counties. Should be interesting to see if Hillary can prevent SWPA from being lost forever.

[IceSpear]

Kentucky already is.

[The Mikado]

Kentucky is racing towards the GOP and was already redder than WV to begin with. WV may have passed it in terms of the extinction of state Democrats, but Kentucky will get there.

Missouri is slowly becoming a lost cause for Democrats, but it'll never be so to the same extent. My gut is that Missouri putters out at R+7-ish and remains a solidly Republican state by reasonably small margins. That is, even when the Democrats win nationally, the Republican can dependably get his ~52%. McCatskill is going to need even more of her ridiculous luck to pull a third term out of this situation.

It's too early to tell re: Iowa. I think Iowa's just a really, really swing-y state.

[Miles]

Missouri.

IA trended slightly D between 2004 and 2012. Also, the urban urban counties are growing much faster, while most rural counties are actually losing population:

[GLPman]

Iowa or Missouri.

[AelroseB]

Unless Happy Chandler makes a comeback from beyond the grave...

I'd give it 10 years or so - I just have a nagging feeling that Missouri's going to stay relatively non-west-virginianized for a time.

[Vega]

Missouri, if it hasn't started the process already.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Choosing among the two States that are actually Democratic right now, probably PA.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Missouri and Kentucky have already/are in the process of shifting R.

The evidence that Pennsylvania is trending R isn't that convincing. In 2012, its PVI was D + 1.48, which is the lowest its been since 1996, when it was D +0.7.  The PVI has been decreasing since 2004, but its not clear if this is a real trend or random fluctuations.

Iowa is interesting.  Its demographics would tell you that its a Republican leaning state, yet its consistently been a swing state.  I don't think that's going to change, but I suppose we'll have to see how 2016 will play out.
 

The problem Democrats have with whites is a southern problem. The rest of the country's white vote around 45 % Democrat. Southern racist whites skew the number nationally. Iowa should be fine long term.

One state to worry about long term is PA. The Democratic collapse in the western appalachian region is good news for Republicans.

[IceSpear]

MO and PA both have high African American populations and strong urban bases (and in PA, the Philly suburbs are Democratic as well). Compare that to the mostly homogenous rural white population of West Virginia. By that metric, considering that Kentucky basically already has become West Virginiaized, Iowa is probably the best choice. Still, even Iowa isn't particularly likely, due to things like the map Miles posted and the quirks of the state. The Iowa caucus gives Democrats a voice in the state, whereas states with demographic makeups similar to Iowa are simply written off.

[IceSpear]

Missouri and Kentucky have already/are in the process of shifting R.

The evidence that Pennsylvania is trending R isn't that convincing. In 2012, its PVI was D + 1.48, which is the lowest its been since 1996, when it was D +0.7.  The PVI has been decreasing since 2004, but its not clear if this is a real trend or random fluctuations.

Iowa is interesting.  Its demographics would tell you that its a Republican leaning state, yet its consistently been a swing state.  I don't think that's going to change, but I suppose we'll have to see how 2016 will play out.
 

The problem Democrats have with whites is a southern problem. The rest of the country's white vote around 45 % Democrat. Southern racist whites skew the number nationally. Iowa should be fine long term.

One state to worry about long term is PA. The Democratic collapse in the western appalachian region is good news for Republicans.

It's of no concern at all unless Republicans figure out how to make inroads in the eastern suburbs.

[Oregreen]

Missouri and Kentucky have already/are in the process of shifting R.

The evidence that Pennsylvania is trending R isn't that convincing. In 2012, its PVI was D + 1.48, which is the lowest its been since 1996, when it was D +0.7.  The PVI has been decreasing since 2004, but its not clear if this is a real trend or random fluctuations.

Iowa is interesting.  Its demographics would tell you that its a Republican leaning state, yet its consistently been a swing state.  I don't think that's going to change, but I suppose we'll have to see how 2016 will play out.
 

The problem Democrats have with whites is a southern problem. The rest of the country's white vote around 45 % Democrat. Southern racist whites skew the number nationally. Iowa should be fine long term.

One state to worry about long term is PA. The Democratic collapse in the western appalachian region is good news for Republicans.

It's of no concern at all unless Republicans figure out how to make inroads in the eastern suburbs.

To me, it seems as if Romney was a good fit for Pennsylvania. Yes, he lost the state, but he did fairly well in the suburbs of Pennsylvania and especially well in the western part of the state. What killed him in PA was the Obama GOTV machine in Philadelphia. Heck, Romney received ZERO votes in some Philadelphia precincts. He did even worse than McCain there. However, if the Republicans really focus on Pennsylvania and cut the margin in the Philadelphia suburbs and Allegheny County (which is possible), it will soon become a competitive swing state (which it never really was in the last two decades).

[Bandit3 the Worker]

All the above states are probably too urbanized, and the Republican base is dying off anyway.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Missouri and Kentucky have already/are in the process of shifting R.

The evidence that Pennsylvania is trending R isn't that convincing. In 2012, its PVI was D + 1.48, which is the lowest its been since 1996, when it was D +0.7.  The PVI has been decreasing since 2004, but its not clear if this is a real trend or random fluctuations.

Iowa is interesting.  Its demographics would tell you that its a Republican leaning state, yet its consistently been a swing state.  I don't think that's going to change, but I suppose we'll have to see how 2016 will play out.
 

The problem Democrats have with whites is a southern problem. The rest of the country's white vote around 45 % Democrat. Southern racist whites skew the number nationally. Iowa should be fine long term.

One state to worry about long term is PA. The Democratic collapse in the western appalachian region is good news for Republicans.

It's of no concern at all unless Republicans figure out how to make inroads in the eastern suburbs.

To me, it seems as if Romney was a good fit for Pennsylvania. Yes, he lost the state, but he did fairly well in the suburbs of Pennsylvania and especially well in the western part of the state. What killed him in PA was the Obama GOTV machine in Philadelphia. Heck, Romney received ZERO votes in some Philadelphia precincts. He did even worse than McCain there. However, if the Republicans really focus on Pennsylvania and cut the margin in the Philadelphia suburbs and Allegheny County (which is possible), it will soon become a competitive swing state (which it never really was in the last two decades).

Romney didn't have enough working class appeal also. He didn't do well enough in the Lehigh valley and that pretty much goes with the winner. But yeah, Philly is a tough nut to crack and yet anothe reason why Paul is so interesting because if you combine say Paul's social views that appeal to African Americans+econcomic opportunity zones, with the education focus of Bush behind a third candidate (like one of the Midwest Governors), you have a solid combination for Pennsylvania that can get back above 20% in Philly and win Lehigh. Kasich/Paul?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I just can't believe Joni Ernst won Scott County.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Missouri and Kentucky have already/are in the process of shifting R.

The evidence that Pennsylvania is trending R isn't that convincing. In 2012, its PVI was D + 1.48, which is the lowest its been since 1996, when it was D +0.7.  The PVI has been decreasing since 2004, but its not clear if this is a real trend or random fluctuations.

Iowa is interesting.  Its demographics would tell you that its a Republican leaning state, yet its consistently been a swing state.  I don't think that's going to change, but I suppose we'll have to see how 2016 will play out.
 

The problem Democrats have with whites is a southern problem. The rest of the country's white vote around 45 % Democrat. Southern racist whites skew the number nationally. Iowa should be fine long term.

One state to worry about long term is PA. The Democratic collapse in the western appalachian region is good news for Republicans.

It's of no concern at all unless Republicans figure out how to make inroads in the eastern suburbs.

Ya, plus Obama pretty much ignored the state in 2008 and 2012 because he knew he would win. Remember the much vaunted Pennsylvania strategy both McCain and Romney had ?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Missouri and Kentucky have already/are in the process of shifting R.

The evidence that Pennsylvania is trending R isn't that convincing. In 2012, its PVI was D + 1.48, which is the lowest its been since 1996, when it was D +0.7.  The PVI has been decreasing since 2004, but its not clear if this is a real trend or random fluctuations.

Iowa is interesting.  Its demographics would tell you that its a Republican leaning state, yet its consistently been a swing state.  I don't think that's going to change, but I suppose we'll have to see how 2016 will play out.
 

The problem Democrats have with whites is a southern problem. The rest of the country's white vote around 45 % Democrat. Southern racist whites skew the number nationally. Iowa should be fine long term.

One state to worry about long term is PA. The Democratic collapse in the western appalachian region is good news for Republicans.

It's of no concern at all unless Republicans figure out how to make inroads in the eastern suburbs.

To me, it seems as if Romney was a good fit for Pennsylvania. Yes, he lost the state, but he did fairly well in the suburbs of Pennsylvania and especially well in the western part of the state. What killed him in PA was the Obama GOTV machine in Philadelphia. Heck, Romney received ZERO votes in some Philadelphia precincts. He did even worse than McCain there. However, if the Republicans really focus on Pennsylvania and cut the margin in the Philadelphia suburbs and Allegheny County (which is possible), it will soon become a competitive swing state (which it never really was in the last two decades).

You are right about Romney being a good fit for the eastern PA suburbs. Romney was a good fit for the upper class 1 % vote in upscale  north eastern suburbs of Philly, NYC, CT and even MA.

But they were in all pretty solid blue states, and it was alot of wasted votes.

[IceSpear]

Missouri and Kentucky have already/are in the process of shifting R.

The evidence that Pennsylvania is trending R isn't that convincing. In 2012, its PVI was D + 1.48, which is the lowest its been since 1996, when it was D +0.7.  The PVI has been decreasing since 2004, but its not clear if this is a real trend or random fluctuations.

Iowa is interesting.  Its demographics would tell you that its a Republican leaning state, yet its consistently been a swing state.  I don't think that's going to change, but I suppose we'll have to see how 2016 will play out.
 

The problem Democrats have with whites is a southern problem. The rest of the country's white vote around 45 % Democrat. Southern racist whites skew the number nationally. Iowa should be fine long term.

One state to worry about long term is PA. The Democratic collapse in the western appalachian region is good news for Republicans.

It's of no concern at all unless Republicans figure out how to make inroads in the eastern suburbs.

To me, it seems as if Romney was a good fit for Pennsylvania. Yes, he lost the state, but he did fairly well in the suburbs of Pennsylvania and especially well in the western part of the state. What killed him in PA was the Obama GOTV machine in Philadelphia. Heck, Romney received ZERO votes in some Philadelphia precincts. He did even worse than McCain there. However, if the Republicans really focus on Pennsylvania and cut the margin in the Philadelphia suburbs and Allegheny County (which is possible), it will soon become a competitive swing state (which it never really was in the last two decades).

Romney didn't have enough working class appeal also. He didn't do well enough in the Lehigh valley and that pretty much goes with the winner. But yeah, Philly is a tough nut to crack and yet anothe reason why Paul is so interesting because if you combine say Paul's social views that appeal to African Americans+econcomic opportunity zones, with the education focus of Bush behind a third candidate (like one of the Midwest Governors), you have a solid combination for Pennsylvania that can get back above 20% in Philly and win Lehigh. Kasich/Paul?

I've always thought Paul was a high risk, high reward candidate. I could see him possibly changing some seemingly solid dynamics, completely flaming out, or just performing as a generic R. It would be quite interesting.

[RR1997]

Kentucky has already become West-Virginianized.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Kentucky has already become West-Virginianized.

Remember, the Kentucky House is still 54-46 D.

[TDAS04]

Kentucky already mostly is (outside of Louisville, Lexington, maybe Frankfurt).

Arkansas of course has trended the same direction as West Virginia. 

[Rockefeller GOP]

Kentucky already mostly is (outside of Louisville, Lexington, maybe Frankfurt).

Arkansas of course has trended the same direction as West Virginia. 

Aren't some of KY Dems' best areas actually rural areas (at the state level)?  The Louisville suburbs are very Republican, if I'm not mistaken.