Who's next in line to get west-virginianized? (user search)
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  Who's next in line to get west-virginianized? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Who's next in line to get west-virginianized?
#1
Missouri
 
#2
Iowa
 
#3
Pennsylvania
 
#4
Kentucky
 
#5
Another state
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 55

Author Topic: Who's next in line to get west-virginianized?  (Read 8921 times)
Oregreen
Oregon16
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Posts: 66


« on: December 20, 2014, 07:22:44 PM »
« edited: December 20, 2014, 07:32:16 PM by Oregon16 »

I know that there aren't many possibilities (if any), but which state will be west-virginianized next (Which previously Democratic state (at the national and/or state level) will be turning Republican soon, as happened with West Virginia)?
By the way: I chose west-virginianized as a contrast to virginianized. Could have also said arkansased which probably would have fitted better since West Virginia still has some high-ranking Democrats. I know that it sounds silly LOL.

Missouri: still has a Democratic governor and one Democratic senator
Iowa: may be shifting soon because of demographics if Democrats lose even more white voters, already has 2 Republican senators, a Republican governor as well as a Republican-controlled House
Pennsylvania: population decrease, has been trending slightly R for quite a while
Kentucky: still has a Democratic governor and a Democratic-controlled House


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Oregreen
Oregon16
Rookie
**
Posts: 66


« Reply #1 on: December 21, 2014, 07:42:56 PM »

Missouri and Kentucky have already/are in the process of shifting R.

The evidence that Pennsylvania is trending R isn't that convincing. In 2012, its PVI was D + 1.48, which is the lowest its been since 1996, when it was D +0.7.  The PVI has been decreasing since 2004, but its not clear if this is a real trend or random fluctuations.

Iowa is interesting.  Its demographics would tell you that its a Republican leaning state, yet its consistently been a swing state.  I don't think that's going to change, but I suppose we'll have to see how 2016 will play out.
 

The problem Democrats have with whites is a southern problem. The rest of the country's white vote around 45 % Democrat. Southern racist whites skew the number nationally. Iowa should be fine long term.

One state to worry about long term is PA. The Democratic collapse in the western appalachian region is good news for Republicans.

It's of no concern at all unless Republicans figure out how to make inroads in the eastern suburbs.

To me, it seems as if Romney was a good fit for Pennsylvania. Yes, he lost the state, but he did fairly well in the suburbs of Pennsylvania and especially well in the western part of the state. What killed him in PA was the Obama GOTV machine in Philadelphia. Heck, Romney received ZERO votes in some Philadelphia precincts. He did even worse than McCain there. However, if the Republicans really focus on Pennsylvania and cut the margin in the Philadelphia suburbs and Allegheny County (which is possible), it will soon become a competitive swing state (which it never really was in the last two decades).
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