Virginia in 2016

[Frodo]

Also, if Hillary Clinton carries Virginia against whomever the Republicans nominate, will it be proof that Virginia has crossed the threshold from a purple swing state into becoming an Atlas-red state?  

[JRP1994]

Question 1:

1. John Kasich
2. Chris Christie
3. Jeb Bush
4. Mitt Romney
5. Scott Walker
6. Rand Paul

Question 2:

It depends entirely on the circumstances. If Clinton wins nationally by 3% and wins Virginia by 5%, then yes. If she wins nationally by 7% and wins Virginia by 2%, it's going to be pretty dang hard to make that argument.

[Oregreen]

Probably Kasich or Christie, although both of them stand a relatively small chance of winning it. Virginia is becoming a more and more Democratic state. Recent polls show her over 50% there. The problem for the GOP is that she will win more white voters than Obama and match his totals among African-Americans. That's why Georgia and North Carolina will also be competitive. The Solid Democratic South will rise again lol. Republicans better find some Electoral Votes in the Midwest or they will be toast.

[Senator Cris]

Christie has a better chance in Virginia than Bush?

[Suburbia]

Kasich appeals to Virginia. Bush as well. Bush plays well with the Arlington area (GWB had campaign headquarters there in 2000 and 2004).

[Mehmentum]

Republicans need 2 things in Virginia.

1.) Good turnout in Appalachia.  The best candidate for Appalachia would be Mike Huckabee.  Christie would probably do the worst.

2.) Make inroads in Northern Virginia.  This is very difficult to do while also remaining strong in Appalachia.  Bush, Kasich, and Christie would be the best bets to achieve that.

So I'd say, Kasich or Bush would do the best in Virginia.

[pbrower2a]

I picked Kasich because we know little about his chances to win the Presidency. Governors Snyder of Michigan and Pence of Indiana are in the same category. The others... no.

[IceSpear]

Kasich

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Also, if Hillary Clinton carries Virginia against whomever the Republicans nominate, will it be proof that Virginia has crossed the threshold from a purple swing state into becoming an Atlas-red state?  

No, It depends on the national margin compared to the Virginia margin. If she wins nationally by 7 and  Virginia by 8, it is still a swing state in a 50/50 election. I expect Virginia to be about 2 points more Democratic than the national average , continuing its D trend.

Although will Hillary be a great fit for VA like Obama was ? She won't have same sky high appeal to African Americans, the young and NOVA like Obama did. She will certainly do better in the culturally Southern part of the state though.

[Non Swing Voter]

I picked Kasich because he seems the most reasonable.  Bush and the conservative ones don't stand a chance in Virginia.  Christie just seems like a weird candidate at this point.

I say if Hillary wins VA it's proof VA is a blue state unless it's a massive landslide and she eaks out Virginia... which is highly unlikely. 

Winning practically all statewide elections over a 10 year period is pretty strong proof a state is blue.  Even if she just wins it by the same margin she wins nationally, it's still proof... because the popular vote nationally leans democratic as well... see the last 6 elections.

[Devils30]

Also, if Hillary Clinton carries Virginia against whomever the Republicans nominate, will it be proof that Virginia has crossed the threshold from a purple swing state into becoming an Atlas-red state?  

No, It depends on the national margin compared to the Virginia margin. If she wins nationally by 7 and  Virginia by 8, it is still a swing state in a 50/50 election. I expect Virginia to be about 2 points more Democratic than the national average , continuing its D trend.

Although will Hillary be a great fit for VA like Obama was ? She won't have same sky high appeal to African Americans, the young and NOVA like Obama did. She will certainly do better in the culturally Southern part of the state though.

I think Virginia could be a D+1 type of state and may be more Democratic than Wisconsin in 2016. 2013 in all three statewide races showed that the Obama coalition likely can be replicated and Warner did absolutely miserably in Prince William, Loudoun counties compared to presidential years and still won. The math for the GOP to get beyond 48.5% in Virginia is quite daunting.

[Mr. Smith]

Jeb Bush, I don't see Kasich doing as as well in the Appalchia area as him, and atop that, the Beltway area would probably quite like Bush.

I can see Kasich doing great in Northern Virginia, but outside of the independent cities of Lexington and Roanoke, everyone that isn't Huckabee is going to seriously underperform west of Front Royal (or Charlottesville can't quite remember which is further west right now).

However Bush could probably grow a good 'ol boy image, which is definitely a seller in those counties.