1912, No Roosevelt Candidacy

[ElectionsGuy]

This is the map with all Roosevelt votes added into the Taft column. 50.6-41.8 victory in the popular vote and 379-152 in the electoral college. Is this plausible? I think that Taft definitely still would've won re-election in 1912, which would change the course of history, but by a much slimmer margin. Many Republican progressives would've stayed home, and I could see a ~5 point victory.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I actually think the Roosevelt vote would split almost evenly (maybe 60/40 Taft, but not much more), thus allowing Wilson to win. There was significant voter fatigue after 16 years of Republican rule.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

This is the map with all Roosevelt votes added into the Taft column. 50.6-41.8 victory in the popular vote and 379-152 in the electoral college. Is this plausible? I think that Taft definitely still would've won re-election in 1912, which would change the course of history, but by a much slimmer margin. Many progressives would've stayed home, and I could see a ~5 point victory.

I disagree. While to a lesser extent, Wilson was also running on an outspoken Progressive platform.

Even without TR's candidacy, his dissapointment in Taft was well known and many of his supporters simply wouldn't stomach voting for the incumnent. At best, Taft would have won a narrow victory, nothing close to a comfortable lead.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NJ and WVA would have clearly switched sides and Wilson would have won a close election

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

NJ and WVA would have clearly switched sides and Wilson would have won a close election

Vermont? Come on...

[Rockefeller GOP]

NJ and WVA would have clearly switched sides and Wilson would have won a close election

NY votes to the right of VT in 1912?  I don't think so.

[SWE]

OC's analysis is spot on, as always

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

VT voted for Taft over Roosevelt for a reason. It was a Republican state through and through. The reputation as a "liberal Republican state" is a mid-20th century development.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

It would be fairly close, something like this:

287-244, with a decent chance of some combination of WV, WI, OH and/or NY giving a win to Wilson

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Taft wins narrowly. And of course he wins VT.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Taft 295
Wilson 236

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Would have loved for Wilson to win this map in 1912

[nolesfan2011]

I actually think the Roosevelt vote would split almost evenly (maybe 60/40 Taft, but not much more), thus allowing Wilson to win. There was significant voter fatigue after 16 years of Republican rule.

TR voters tended to lean Wilson as their second choice... so Wilson still is likely to win in this scenario, all be it by a smaller electoral vote margin than IRL. That said, no Taft otoh, and maybe Debs endorses TR (unlikely but still) and TR would have likely beaten Wilson everywhere but the old Confederacy

[Rockefeller GOP]

I actually think the Roosevelt vote would split almost evenly (maybe 60/40 Taft, but not much more), thus allowing Wilson to win. There was significant voter fatigue after 16 years of Republican rule.

TR voters tended to lean Wilson as their second choice... so Wilson still is likely to win in this scenario, all be it by a smaller electoral vote margin than IRL. That said, no Taft otoh, and maybe Debs endorses TR (unlikely but still) and TR would have likely beaten Wilson everywhere but the old Confederacy

Are you simply guessing or citing some type of exit poll-preceding statistic?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I reaffirmed the Wilson election victory, because it was coming off the heals of a 3 term G O P run.  Progressives were energized to come out and vote for Wilson, eventhough his ties to KKK. He still wanted Senate and tax and womens' vote reform. And FDR further enhanced his legacy through the United Nations and National Reserve Bank.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I reaffirmed the Wilson election victory, because it was coming off the heals of a 3 term G O P run.  Progressives were energized to come out and vote for Wilson, eventhough his ties to KKK. He still wanted Senate and tax and womens' vote reform. And FDR further enhanced his legacy through the United Nations and National Reserve Bank.

actually the Klan had long been dead in 1912, and was only reestablished in response to the film Birth of a Nation in 1915.

[SPC]

Splitting Roosevelt's votes 80-20 (rather optimistic for Wilson, considering the strong correlation between Roosevelt votes and Taft-Hughes swing):

[SWE]

Can someone explain to me what the guy a few posts up has Wilson winning Vermont against Taft, even though Taft won even with the split? Is that an obvious troll I see?

OC's political analysis can often be a little special