I actually think the Roosevelt vote would split almost evenly (maybe 60/40 Taft, but not much more), thus allowing Wilson to win. There was significant voter fatigue after 16 years of Republican rule.
TR voters tended to lean Wilson as their second choice... so Wilson still is likely to win in this scenario, all be it by a smaller electoral vote margin than IRL. That said, no Taft otoh, and maybe Debs endorses TR (unlikely but still) and TR would have likely beaten Wilson everywhere but the old Confederacy
