Will there be any oil production in the North Sea 20 years from now?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obviously everyone knows the current situation is temporary and not something you can make projections from a year from now, much less 20. But it got me thinking since 20 years seems about the time the nationalists will likely ask for a re-do on independence.

But stop and think about it. Right now the North Sea is already mostly depleted and needs oil to be about $60/barrel to be profitable. So let's imagine in 2034 oil needs to be the 2034-inflation adjusted equivalent of $80/barrel, and thanks to alternative energy is selling at the inflation adjusted equivalent of $50/barrel. You can do the math.

Yeah, neither figure in there is set in stone. But quite frankly I might be willing to bet that in 20 years, the only people still pumping oil will be third world sources like Nigeria, and the Saudis, Albertans and maybe the Russians, all to sell to the third world.

[ingemann]

Ýes for one simple reason, it's only new well's where the price need to be over 60$ per barrel, the running wells cost much less to keep pumping, than to close them down.

Beside that this low won't be permanent, through it may last for several years, at some point the we the price rise again.