Indiana's 5th Congressional District: trending Dem fast
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Indiana's 5th Congressional District: trending Dem fast
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Author Topic: Indiana's 5th Congressional District: trending Dem fast  (Read 1242 times)
hopper
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« on: December 22, 2014, 12:39:27 AM »
« edited: December 22, 2014, 01:02:40 AM by hopper »

I notice Indiana's 5th Congressional District D trend is strong. The district covers eastern and northern suburbs of Indianapolis and also Northern Indianapolis. Here is a look at its strong D trend:

2004: R+20
2008: R+17
2012: Pre-election: R+11
2012: Post-election: R+9

It looks like the redistricting made the district more Dem but the district moved 2 and 3 points respectively dem before and after redistricting.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1 on: December 22, 2014, 01:59:28 PM »

How are you marking pre-election and post-election for 2012?
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memphis
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« Reply #2 on: December 22, 2014, 03:47:02 PM »

Sounds like a few of those people may be moving in.
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Vega
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« Reply #3 on: December 22, 2014, 03:55:30 PM »

How are you marking pre-election and post-election for 2012?

I think he's illustrating how it became more (atlas) Red than expected?
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muon2
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« Reply #4 on: December 22, 2014, 06:27:31 PM »

The effect may not be a trend but a one-time shift. The suburban and exurban areas north of Indy had a 25% swing in the margin to D (half that is the amount of shift) from 2004 to 2008. That was due to the combination of the Iraq War and Obama's initial candidacy. The margin moved about 12% R from 2008 to 2012, which represents about half the shifted voters returning, but half the swing voters staying D. Unless there are other external factors or a large growth outward from inner Indy, there's no particular reason to expect much of that 2006-8 swing to return.
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MyRescueKittehRocks
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« Reply #5 on: December 22, 2014, 08:14:48 PM »

I know this district as I was part of it for some time. The question that should be asked is how is a moderate republican it's rep and not a Libertarian or at least a Tea Partier. Plus it went further GOP in 2014.
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hopper
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« Reply #6 on: December 23, 2014, 12:54:03 PM »

How are you marking pre-election and post-election for 2012?
Pre-election was after the 2011-2012 redistricting and post-election was after the 2012 Presidential Election.
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hopper
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« Reply #7 on: December 23, 2014, 01:02:57 PM »

I know this district as I was part of it for some time. The question that should be asked is how is a moderate republican it's rep and not a Libertarian or at least a Tea Partier. Plus it went further GOP in 2014.
Well its Rep(Susan Brooks) beat her nearest challenger former US Rep. David McCintosh by 1% point in the 2012 Republican Primary. She beat back a Tea Party challenger  too this year. The current district matches Brook's old State Senate District from what I read.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #8 on: December 23, 2014, 02:10:54 PM »

How are you marking pre-election and post-election for 2012?
Pre-election was after the 2011-2012 redistricting and post-election was after the 2012 Presidential Election.

Got it, thank you.
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MyRescueKittehRocks
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« Reply #9 on: December 26, 2014, 11:38:39 PM »

I know this district as I was part of it for some time. The question that should be asked is how is a moderate republican it's rep and not a Libertarian or at least a Tea Partier. Plus it went further GOP in 2014.
Well its Rep(Susan Brooks) beat her nearest challenger former US Rep. David McCintosh by 1% point in the 2012 Republican Primary. She beat back a Tea Party challenger  too this year. The current district matches Brook's old State Senate District from what I read.

That sounds about right.
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