muon2
Moderator
Atlas Icon
Posts: 16,793
|
 |
« on: December 22, 2014, 06:27:31 PM » |
|
The effect may not be a trend but a one-time shift. The suburban and exurban areas north of Indy had a 25% swing in the margin to D (half that is the amount of shift) from 2004 to 2008. That was due to the combination of the Iraq War and Obama's initial candidacy. The margin moved about 12% R from 2008 to 2012, which represents about half the shifted voters returning, but half the swing voters staying D. Unless there are other external factors or a large growth outward from inner Indy, there's no particular reason to expect much of that 2006-8 swing to return.
|
