The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2)

[Eraserhead]

After what Biden did to his daughter, I'm surprised by how supportive he is of him.

And what exactly was that?

I enjoy Joe Biden's weirdness as much as anyone but damn that is creepy.

[Mr. Morden]

I am becoming somewhat pessimistic that Ehrlich will ever confirm or deny that he's running.  His latest FB post:

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=10153463300499044&id=12251529043

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Right, but are you going to run for that job yourself, governor?  Or not?

Maybe we should all spam his FB page with questions about whether he's running.  That's the only way to put an end to this madness.

[Mr. Morden]

WaPo on Walker's rollout.

Yes, he's touring all four early primary states immediately after his announcement.  Gee, I wonder what he's going to announce.  That he's not running?  That would make the early state tour rather awkward.

Also, while in Iowa, he will travel by winnebago:

http://dailycaller.com/2015/07/08/scott-walker-to-embark-on-winnebago-trip-across-iowa/

[Mr. Morden]

I have bad news for you, my friends.  There's now talk that because Biden's head hasn't entirely been on political matters of late (understandably, he was mourning his son) the supposed "Aug. 1 deadline" for him to decide on a run may slip substantially:

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-biden-campaign-question-20150709-story.html#page=1

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I hope he runs, because we need this on the debate stage again:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fMuww0dRyA

[Vega]

^^ If that's the case, he'll miss out on the first two debates. I don't know if that would be a wise move for him.

[Mr. Morden]

^^ If that's the case, he'll miss out on the first two debates. I don't know if that would be a wise move for him.

The date of the first Democratic debate hasn't been announced yet, so we don't really know when it'll happen.

[Tender Branson]

Well, any candidate needs to file his/her candidacy at least until mid to end-October, which is roughly the deadline for IA and NH to be on their caucus/primary ballots.

Or is there some exception for Vice Presidents to announce past the IA & NH deadlines ?

[Mr. Morden]

Well, any candidate needs to file his/her candidacy at least until mid to end-October, which is roughly the deadline for IA and NH to be on their caucus/primary ballots.

Or is there some exception for Vice Presidents to announce past the IA & NH deadlines ?

There is no deadline for Iowa, as people just show up at the caucus and raise their hands or something.  You could declare your candidacy the week before, and still win delegates.

But yeah, by October you're running up against ballot deadlines in other states.  So September is presumably the latest one could announce.

[Joe Biden 2020]

If Biden is pushing it back to after Labor Day, the unofficial start of the presidential campaign season, then I am going to guess he's not going to run at all.  I can't blame him if that's what he decides to do, but I venture to guess he will sit this one out because I'm sure the pain from losing his son will still be fresh by mid-September.  I don't think he thinks he can give the presidential campaign the attention and devotion it needs.

[Krago]

All right.  I'll leave the thread stickied until either Biden announces his intentions (or at least schedules a date for an announcement, like Walker and Kasich have) or Aug. 1st, whichever comes first.  And even once I unsticky it, I'm not going to lock it or anything, so if some other potential candidate pops up, you'll be free to keep posting in it.

Why not start a sticky thread: "Who is dropping out?"  Then we could begin speculating when Donald Trump will hold his exit press conference/temper tantrum after his inevitable flame-out. My guess: August 12.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden watch:

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/248200-biden-ramping-up-travel-schedule

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[The Other Castro]

Would this suggest that he's not running? To me it seems like he's focusing on his role as VP with this trip, and would use such a trip to mask visits to Iowa or New Hampshire if he was really running.

[Mr. Morden]

This was announced last week, but Kasich will follow up his July 21st announcement with a 3 day trip to New Hampshire:

http://www.wmur.com/politics/kaisch-will-stop-in-new-hampshire-post2016-announcement/34086378

Which means that he's joining the other candidates in removing any mystery about what his announcement is going to be.  Is he going to stand before a big crowd in Columbus, and announce "I've decided not to run for president, but I would like to take an unrelated 3 day vacation in New Hampshire!"?

Meanwhile, Gilmore had an event in New Hampshire last weekend, but he otherwise doesn't appear to be doing any ramping up towards his expected entry into the race in early August.  We don't yet know exactly what day he's going to announce.

[PPT Spiral]

According to HuffPo, Biden is still considering a campaign. A decision looks to now come by September rather than August.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

According to HuffPo, Biden is still considering a campaign. A decision looks to now come by September rather than August.

Damn, he's really Biden his time this time. I thought he was doing that a lot for the 2004 election. He declined to run on August 11 that time.

[Mr. Morden]

This changes everything:

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/07/19/politics/john-kerry-presidential-run/index.html

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[Vega]

The only future John Kerry (possibly) has is maybe staying Secretary of State under another Democrat. Even that's unlikely.

Why would he even want to run for President, anyway?

[Mr. Morden]

Biden update:

http://www.9news.com/story/news/local/politics/2015/07/21/joe-biden-community-college-economy-denver-speech/30489161/

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[Badger]

Is there any serious candidate expected to enter the race post-Kasich? (ftr, despite the clickbait title above, no way in hell in Biden getting in).

Perhaps we should consider unstickying this thread now? The field seems set (until folks start dropping out, that is).

[Mr. Morden]

Is there any serious candidate expected to enter the race post-Kasich? (ftr, despite the clickbait title above, no way in hell in Biden getting in).

Gilmore is the only likely entry remaining.  Ehrlich seems to have given up, though hasn't announced anything.  Biden isn't ruling it out, but seems unlikely.

I'm happy to unsticky the thread whenever people think it makes sense to do so.  When I asked a few weeks ago, people were saying Aug. 1.  But I can do it now if that's what you all prefer.  Even when unstickied, the thread will remain open for people to bump if we get more news.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Let's wait until we get a firm announcement date from Gilmore.

[The Other Castro]

Let's wait until we get a firm announcement date from Gilmore.

First week of August seems firm enough.

[Flake]

Let's wait until we get a firm announcement date from Gilmore.

The suggestion was any serious post-Kasich candidate though

[Mr. Morden]

This tweet claims that Bob Ehrlich took down "bobehrlich.com" within the last week or so:

https://twitter.com/polibeast/status/624583004552331264

I am assuming that this is further indication that he won't run.  I will wait until the end of the week or so, and will then (barring major unexpected news) unsticky this thread.

It makes no sense for Ehrlich to delay any more, given the New Hampshire forum next week.  Though I'm not sure that he's ever going to actually announce that he's not running.  Most of the media was never paying attention to him in the first place, so they won't notice if he simply never says anything.

Gilmore is apparently going to enter the race later this week.  Other than that, there's Biden.  But I'm not going to keep this thread stickied just for Biden.  If there's Biden news, you can either bump this thread, or start a new Biden-specific one.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden watch:

http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2015/07/26/joe-biden-plans-remain-big-mystery-for/I40ca5P5DqjoJ7EAWHD00K/story.html

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