The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2)

[The Other Castro]

Just in case this comes true, I had a weird dream last night that Morden posted a source saying Biden will announce on August 11 that he's not running.

[Mr. Morden]

Just in case this comes true, I had a weird dream last night that Morden posted a source saying Biden will announce on August 11 that he's not running.

I don't think I've ever been in a dream as wild as that before.

[Mr. Morden]

I've decided to unsticky this thread.  With Gilmore now apparently in, all we have left is Biden and Ehrlich.  Ehrlich seems to have dropped off the face of the Earth, and may never actually announce that he's not running.  Biden will make an announcement one way or the other at some point, but it doesn't make sense to keep the thread stickied just for him.  Feel free to keep using the thread to talk about Biden (or whoever else might join the race).  Otherwise, feel free to start a Biden-watch thread, or whatever.  But the thread won't be stickied.

I'm proud of what we built here--both this thread and its predecessor:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.0

A one stop shop for all the tea leaves that was (as far as I'm aware) unique on the interwebs.  During the slow build up phase of the campaign, I'd like to think that this thread was the highlight of the 2016 board.  But that time has passed now.  I'll miss it.

For now, though, it's time for the thread to sink down the page.

Next year, though, it'll be time to begin the "Who is running in 2020?" tea leaves thread.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Just in case this comes true, I had a weird dream last night that Morden posted a source saying Biden will announce on August 11 that he's not running.

Because of this?

For the 2004 election, he was Biden his time too. Although the decision to not run was made a little earlier; August 11.

[The Other Castro]

Just in case this comes true, I had a weird dream last night that Morden posted a source saying Biden will announce on August 11 that he's not running.

Because of this?

For the 2004 election, he was Biden his time too. Although the decision to not run was made a little earlier; August 11.

Wow that's eerie, I hadn't checked that thread yet.

[Mr. Morden]

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/07/31/politics/vice-president-joe-biden-presidential-elections/index.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So he's not going to announce a decision until September?

Btw, I think the first ballot deadline in South Carolina on Sept. 30.

[Famous Mortimer]

I just want to say that I personally removed Bob Ehrlich from the Wikipedia article "Republican presidential candidates, 2016" because the last article linked about his possibly running was exactly 3 months old.

I move that anyone who brings up Ehrlich's name as a candidate from this point on be immediately banned.

[Mr. Morden]

I just want to say that I personally removed Bob Ehrlich from the Wikipedia article "Republican presidential candidates, 2016" because the last article linked about his possibly running was exactly 3 months old.

I move that anyone who brings up Ehrlich's name as a candidate from this point on be immediately banned.

Please forgive my crazy idea, but given that He Who Must Not Be Named has a FB and Twitter account, does anyone want to try contacting him (or whatever staffer is running those social media account), and ask if he's given up on the idea of a presidential run?  Maybe we'll actually move him to make a statement?

[Famous Mortimer]

Why would he need to make a statement? Do Peter King, Paul Ryan, Sarah Palin, and every GOP governor and member of Congress also need to make statements?

[Mr. Morden]

Why would he need to make a statement? Do Peter King, Paul Ryan, Sarah Palin, and every GOP governor and member of Congress also need to make statements?

Potential candidates who visited early primary states and said something like "I'm thinking of running for president" typically need to make a statement once they've decided that they're not going to run.  That's what Bolton, King, etc. did.  They were visiting NH, and saying "I might run for president", and then decided that they weren't interested, so they made an announcement about it.  Members of Congress who never publicly toyed with the idea of running for president don't need to make such statements.

So I would think the Ehrlich would clarify his intentions as well, given his repeated trips to NH and "maybe I'll run" comments that he made several times.  Though I guess the media was never paying enough attention to him to notice him, and will probably not notice that he never formally "dropped out".

[Mr. Morden]

More Biden watch:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-considers-his-future-amid-pressure-to-make-a-bid-for-president/2015/08/01/020e7112-388e-11e5-9739-170df8af8eb9_story.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Tender Branson]

Biden to SC for a week-long vacation (no events planned there), after which he will announce his plans:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/aug/8/biden-expected-make-2016-decision-after-retreat/

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/joe-biden-is-sounding-out-allies-about-a-2016-bid-1439424303

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden had a phone call with "one of his most outspoken political supporters" to discuss the possibility of him running:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/14/us/politics/joe-biden-on-beach-vacation-wades-further-into-16-bid.html?_r=0

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[The Other Castro]

Is it...is it happening?

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/joe-biden-possible-2016-presidential-race-promises-one-term-121359.html?hp=l2_4

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/biden-strategy-for-white-house-run-taking-shape-121377.html?hp=t4_r

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden advisers telling him that he has to decide by Oct. 1:

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/16/politics/ip-biden-plans/index.html

[Mr. Morden]

Latest from inside the White House is that the Obama team is "invested" in Clinton, and not very enthusiastic about Biden entering the race:

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/17/politics/joe-biden-white-house-2016-concerns/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/22/us/politics/joe-biden-campaign.html?_r=0

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Meanwhile, it looks like the timeline for a decision might have slipped all the way to the October debate:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Simfan34]

Isn't Tsunis the one who made a fool of himself when he was nominated as Ambassador to Norway but clearly knew nothing about the country?

[/]

Ugh, it would screw up everything when it comes to predictions, etc. if Biden enters the race. Just like Trump did. The GOP nom was fairly easy to predict before his surge in the polls, now it's much harder.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/joe-biden-is-leaning-toward-a-2016-run-1440373384

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Warren still refusing to endorse Hillary, and says Hillary hasn't been 'anointed' by dems. Hopefully she endorses Biden or Sanders soon:
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/elizabeth-warren-reelection-2018-senate-run-121657.html

[Figueira]

Somehow I thought she had already endorsed Hillary. Hopefully she'll endorse Sanders.