The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2)

[NewYorkExpress]

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/02/john-kerry-2016-elections-114992.html?hp=l2_4

John Kerry on 2016:

At the end of a wide-ranging interview airing Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” host Chuck Todd pressed Kerry, the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee, whether there was a scenario in which he would run again for president in 2016.

“I have no scenario whatsoever in my mind,” Kerry said. “I haven’t thought about it. As you can tell, pretty busy.”

When Todd asked, “is it a never say never?” Kerry replied: “Well, nobody says never. But I mean, I have no concept of it.”

This would be as ludicrous as Mitt Romney running again. Still, I'm curious to see what a head-to-head race between him and Biden would be like.

[RogueBeaver]

Caputo on Prof. Rubio.

National Journal on the IA free-for-all.

[RogueBeaver]

Rubio hires former Romney NH strategist Jim Merrill.

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders reiterates that a decision on whether he'll run or not is coming in March:

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/run-2016/2015/02/09/bernie-sanders-the-billionaires-may-just-win

[RogueBeaver]

Rubio sure sounds like a candidate in this Hewitt interview.

[Mr. Morden]

Pataki on the timing of a decision on whether to run:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/11-questions-george-pataki-potential-2016-presidential-candidate/story?id=28785102

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[RogueBeaver]

The Acelans, led by Kissinger, have almost unanimously joined Bush. No surprise since they've been signaling as much for a while. They also see Bush and Rubio as the only serious foreign policy candidates. Game over for Christie?

[PresidentTRUMP]

Rubio hires former Romney NH strategist Jim Merrill.

This pretty much confirms Rubio is 100% in

[Mr. Morden]

Walker's 527 group opens an Iowa office.  The Des Moines Register claims that that makes him "the first of the 2016 White House aspirants to open an office here":

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/02/10/scott-walker-first-to-open-iowa-office-among-white-house-hopefuls/23173785/

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That's kind of a reach about "directly connected to a potential contender" though, as I think Carson is involved in his own draft effort.  But whatevs.

[Mr. Morden]

The Atlantic on the longshot bids of Ehrlich, Gilmore, and Pataki:

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/02/the-longest-long-shots-of-the-2016-gop-race/385273/

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[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Pataki has at least as much of a chance as Graham.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio to IA in 2 weeks.

Looks like he will visit each of the other three early states on his book tour as well:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/02/marco-rubio-february-book-tour-schedule-114824.html

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Also, Jindal, on his decision:

http://jamiedupree.blog.wsbradio.com/2015/02/10/rubio-jindal-edge-toward-2016-run/#__federated=1

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[Mr. Morden]

Rubio interest in a guber run is more not less indication that he's running for president now. Not that he hasn't already tipped that.

How do you figure?

He's said that if he runs for president, he won't use running for re-election to the Senate as a "fallback option".

Implying that he intends to use running for governor as a "fallback option?"

Yes.  He runs for president in 2016.  If he doesn't win, he runs for governor in 2018.

Yep. Plus it gives Florida donors more incentive to donate to a 2016 presidential campaign even if they're not confident he'll win.

Thinking about this some more…there's another factor here.  If Rubio runs for prez this year and does *not* revert back to the Senate race as a fallback, then he's available to be picked as the 2016 VP nominee, should the presidential nominee be interested in picking him.  Whereas if he was running for Senate, then he couldn't really do that.

So I guess his order of preference would be:

1) Win 2016 GOP presidential nomination, and hopefully be elected president.
2) Be chosen as the 2016 GOP vice presidential nominee, and hopefully be elected vice president, so that he can set himself up to eventually become president.  Even if the ticket loses, he could try to capitalize on his stint on a national ticket to set himself up for a 2020 presidential campaign.
3) Be elected governor in 2018, which also helps set himself up for a future presidential run.

[Miles]

Jindal hires high Romney aide:

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[PresidentTRUMP]

Rubio interest in a guber run is more not less indication that he's running for president now. Not that he hasn't already tipped that.

How do you figure?

He's said that if he runs for president, he won't use running for re-election to the Senate as a "fallback option".

Implying that he intends to use running for governor as a "fallback option?"

Yes.  He runs for president in 2016.  If he doesn't win, he runs for governor in 2018.

Yep. Plus it gives Florida donors more incentive to donate to a 2016 presidential campaign even if they're not confident he'll win.

Thinking about this some more…there's another factor here.  If Rubio runs for prez this year and does *not* revert back to the Senate race as a fallback, then he's available to be picked as the 2016 VP nominee, should the presidential nominee be interested in picking him.  Whereas if he was running for Senate, then he couldn't really do that.

So I guess his order of preference would be:

1) Win 2016 GOP presidential nomination, and hopefully be elected president.
2) Be chosen as the 2016 GOP vice presidential nominee, and hopefully be elected vice president, so that he can set himself up to eventually become president.  Even if the ticket loses, he could try to capitalize on his stint on a national ticket to set himself up for a 2020 presidential campaign.
3) Be elected governor in 2018, which also helps set himself up for a future presidential run.

Yeah, and Walker has heaped praise on Rubio. Not sure if Bush and him could pull off the Bush-Cheney move to dodge the constitution.

Quick question, If Bush wins the nominee, would he be able to run for president as Texas as his home state which would than allow him to pick Rubio as his VP?

If he can do this how does he go about doing it? Thanks

[Fritz]

Quick question, If Bush wins the nominee, would he be able to run for president as Texas as his home state which would than allow him to pick Rubio as his VP?

If he can do this how does he go about doing it? Thanks

If he bought a home and moved in there, I suppose he could.

[RogueBeaver]

Kasich to SC.

[emailking]

Quick question, If Bush wins the nominee, would he be able to run for president as Texas as his home state which would than allow him to pick Rubio as his VP?

If he can do this how does he go about doing it? Thanks

Yes it's what Cheney did in 2000 since (George W) Bush was also from Texas. He changed his voter registration to Wyoming, where he already owned a home. Jeb Bush would have to do the same thing, which may mean he would need to buy or rent a residence in another state  (e.g. Texas) if he doesn't have one already.

It's not technically necessary...it would just mean they have to split Florida's electoral votes if they both run as Floridians. But, like Texas, that's a lot of electoral votes to split so it's probably worth the hassle if Jeb thinks Rubio is his best VP pick.

[RogueBeaver]

Rubio for Guv is apparently disinformation from Team Jeb.

[Mr. Morden]

Perry is in New Hampshire this week, on Wednesday and Thursday:

http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2015/02/11/perry-eyes-2016-bid-in-new-hampshire/

The same Dallas County (Iowa) group that hosted Christie this week will also host Santorum in April and Fiorina in May:

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/02/09/politics/chris-christie-2016-candidate-iowa/

[RogueBeaver]

Rubio to NH in 2 weeks.

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich steps up:

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2015/02/ohio_gov_john_kasich_getting_a.html

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[RogueBeaver]

WaPo on Jeb/Rubio.


Catanese on how Rubio snagged Perry's former TX $$$ chairman.

[RogueBeaver]

Some Wall Street donors are joining Team Walker.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden, while visiting Iowa, says he'll make a decision on whether to run for prez "by the end of the summer":

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/joe-biden-reveals-timeframe-2016-presidential-decision/story?id=28931878

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