The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2)

[Mr. Morden]

From Ehrlich's trip to NH this week:

http://www.fosters.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20150225/GJNEWS_01/150229681/0/SEARCH

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[IceSpear]

We already knew that Webb was visiting Iowa in April, but this lengthy profile of Webb says he'll also be visiting New Hampshire and South Carolina "this spring":

http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/here-comes-trouble-20150213

Haha, I read this article a couple days ago.

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But I only attack strawmen.  Nobody really thinks Webb has a chance.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Run Kasich Run!

He's not running.  He hasn't built any sort of national organization, he hasn't been traveling around the country to secure bundelers and operatives, and wouldn't even be that strong a candidate.  He is just enjoying the attention.

Will be on the top of the list for certain candidates to be the VP

I doubt it, he'd be a pretty weak VP pick on multiple levels.

Weak VP choice, huh?! In a state thats crucial to win for republicans a two term governor that has good approval ratings would be a weak VP choice??? He would be on many potential republicans short list for VP that's for sure.

If either Walker or Rubio get the nominee you can be sure they both take a VERY serious look at him.

[Blair]

Run Kasich Run!

He's not running.  He hasn't built any sort of national organization, he hasn't been traveling around the country to secure bundelers and operatives, and wouldn't even be that strong a candidate.  He is just enjoying the attention.

Will be on the top of the list for certain candidates to be the VP

I doubt it, he'd be a pretty weak VP pick on multiple levels.

Weak VP choice, huh?! In a state thats crucial to win for republicans a two term governor that has good approval ratings would be a weak VP choice??? He would be on many potential republicans short list for VP that's for sure.

If either Walker or Rubio get the nominee you can be sure they both take a VERY serious look at him.

There's no evidence that VP's increase the share of a vote in their homestate-it's been tried by several candidates-Nixon/Lodge:lost Massachusetts. Kerry/Edwards: lost North Carolina. Dukakis/Betsen: lost Texas. Romney/Ryan:lost Wisconsin 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Run Kasich Run!

He's not running.  He hasn't built any sort of national organization, he hasn't been traveling around the country to secure bundelers and operatives, and wouldn't even be that strong a candidate.  He is just enjoying the attention.

Will be on the top of the list for certain candidates to be the VP

I doubt it, he'd be a pretty weak VP pick on multiple levels.

Weak VP choice, huh?! In a state thats crucial to win for republicans a two term governor that has good approval ratings would be a weak VP choice??? He would be on many potential republicans short list for VP that's for sure.

If either Walker or Rubio get the nominee you can be sure they both take a VERY serious look at him.

Walker and Kasich hate each other and even if that weren't the case, Walker isn't going to pick another fiercely anti-union Governor from the Midwest with no foreign policy credentials who won't even help that much in his (Kasich's) home state.  Kasich isn't nearly as popular here as 2014 suggests (he didn't actually perform that much better than in 2010 in terms of his actual vote total, it's just that about 800,000 Strickland voters didn't show up to vote because of how awful FitzGerald was).  Plus, Kasich is extremely abrasive, not polished enough, wants to abolish the income tax, and was in charge of Lehmann Brothers' investment banking division when it filed for bankruptcy in 2008 (among other things).  Most importantly, he'd only provide a minimal boost in Ohio (and possibly not even that) and wouldn't significantly improve the Republican nominee's chances in the state.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Run Kasich Run!

He's not running.  He hasn't built any sort of national organization, he hasn't been traveling around the country to secure bundelers and operatives, and wouldn't even be that strong a candidate.  He is just enjoying the attention.

Will be on the top of the list for certain candidates to be the VP

I doubt it, he'd be a pretty weak VP pick on multiple levels.

Weak VP choice, huh?! In a state thats crucial to win for republicans a two term governor that has good approval ratings would be a weak VP choice??? He would be on many potential republicans short list for VP that's for sure.

If either Walker or Rubio get the nominee you can be sure they both take a VERY serious look at him.

Walker and Kasich hate each other and even if that weren't the case, Walker isn't going to pick another fiercely anti-union Governor from the Midwest with no foreign policy credentials who won't even help that much in his (Kasich's) home state.  Kasich isn't nearly as popular here as 2014 suggests (he didn't actually perform that much better than in 2010 in terms of his actual vote total, it's just that about 800,000 Strickland voters didn't show up to vote because of how awful FitzGerald was).  Plus, Kasich is extremely abrasive, not polished enough, wants to abolish the income tax, and was in charge of Lehmann Brothers' investment banking division when it filed for bankruptcy in 2008 (among other things).  Most importantly, he'd only provide a minimal boost in Ohio (and possibly not even that) and wouldn't significantly improve the Republican nominee's chances in the state.

He would only help and not hurt.....but yes i do agree he makes little sense for walker, Rubio would make a ton of sense for Walker as his VP.

But for Rubio he would make a ton of sense, to have candidates from two crucial must win states for republicans would only help there chances there (Florida & Ohio).

As for bush I see him picking Susanna Martinez if he gets the nomination.

I don't see anyone else with a realistic chance at actually winning the nomination, it will be one of those three. JMHO of course.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Run Kasich Run!

He's not running.  He hasn't built any sort of national organization, he hasn't been traveling around the country to secure bundelers and operatives, and wouldn't even be that strong a candidate.  He is just enjoying the attention.

Will be on the top of the list for certain candidates to be the VP

I doubt it, he'd be a pretty weak VP pick on multiple levels.

Weak VP choice, huh?! In a state thats crucial to win for republicans a two term governor that has good approval ratings would be a weak VP choice??? He would be on many potential republicans short list for VP that's for sure.

If either Walker or Rubio get the nominee you can be sure they both take a VERY serious look at him.

Walker and Kasich hate each other and even if that weren't the case, Walker isn't going to pick another fiercely anti-union Governor from the Midwest with no foreign policy credentials who won't even help that much in his (Kasich's) home state.  Kasich isn't nearly as popular here as 2014 suggests (he didn't actually perform that much better than in 2010 in terms of his actual vote total, it's just that about 800,000 Strickland voters didn't show up to vote because of how awful FitzGerald was).  Plus, Kasich is extremely abrasive, not polished enough, wants to abolish the income tax, and was in charge of Lehmann Brothers' investment banking division when it filed for bankruptcy in 2008 (among other things).  Most importantly, he'd only provide a minimal boost in Ohio (and possibly not even that) and wouldn't significantly improve the Republican nominee's chances in the state.

He would only help and not hurt.....but yes i do agree he makes little sense for walker, Rubio would make a ton of sense for Walker as his VP.

But for Rubio he would make a ton of sense, to have candidates from two crucial must win states for republicans would only help there chances there (Florida & Ohio).

As for bush i see him picking Susanna Martinez if he gets the nomination.

I don't see anyone else with a realistic chance at actually winning the nomination, it will be one of those three. JMHO of course.

Kasich won't secure Ohio for the Republican nominee any more than Ryan secured Wisconsin for Romney.  Martinez won't be the VP pick either, in fact, she's probably never going to run for federal office.  She's seemed pretty set on continuing to take care of her disabled sister and wouldn't be able to do that if she were the Vice-Presidential nominee.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Run Kasich Run!

He's not running.  He hasn't built any sort of national organization, he hasn't been traveling around the country to secure bundelers and operatives, and wouldn't even be that strong a candidate.  He is just enjoying the attention.

Will be on the top of the list for certain candidates to be the VP

I doubt it, he'd be a pretty weak VP pick on multiple levels.

Weak VP choice, huh?! In a state thats crucial to win for republicans a two term governor that has good approval ratings would be a weak VP choice??? He would be on many potential republicans short list for VP that's for sure.

If either Walker or Rubio get the nominee you can be sure they both take a VERY serious look at him.

Walker and Kasich hate each other and even if that weren't the case, Walker isn't going to pick another fiercely anti-union Governor from the Midwest with no foreign policy credentials who won't even help that much in his (Kasich's) home state.  Kasich isn't nearly as popular here as 2014 suggests (he didn't actually perform that much better than in 2010 in terms of his actual vote total, it's just that about 800,000 Strickland voters didn't show up to vote because of how awful FitzGerald was).  Plus, Kasich is extremely abrasive, not polished enough, wants to abolish the income tax, and was in charge of Lehmann Brothers' investment banking division when it filed for bankruptcy in 2008 (among other things).  Most importantly, he'd only provide a minimal boost in Ohio (and possibly not even that) and wouldn't significantly improve the Republican nominee's chances in the state.

He would only help and not hurt.....but yes i do agree he makes little sense for walker, Rubio would make a ton of sense for Walker as his VP.

But for Rubio he would make a ton of sense, to have candidates from two crucial must win states for republicans would only help there chances there (Florida & Ohio).

As for bush i see him picking Susanna Martinez if he gets the nomination.

I don't see anyone else with a realistic chance at actually winning the nomination, it will be one of those three. JMHO of course.

Kasich won't secure Ohio for the Republican nominee any more than Ryan secured Wisconsin for Romney.  Martinez won't be the VP pick either, in fact, she's probably never going to run for federal office.  She's seemed pretty set on continuing to take care of her disabled sister and wouldn't be able to do that if she were the Vice-Presidential nominee.

Ohio IS MUCH more of a swing state than Wisconsin ever was, a couple percentage points there could make a difference.

LOL do you know susanna martinez? Why based on some comments shes made in the past? Yeah politicians never lie. Lets see a candidate win the nomination and see her turn down the VP nominee which would make her arguably the 2nd most powerful person in America and Set up a possible run for presidency in 2024 if republicans win and she is the sitting VP.

Yeah she's going to turn down those opportunities, comical.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Run Kasich Run!

He's not running.  He hasn't built any sort of national organization, he hasn't been traveling around the country to secure bundelers and operatives, and wouldn't even be that strong a candidate.  He is just enjoying the attention.

Will be on the top of the list for certain candidates to be the VP

I doubt it, he'd be a pretty weak VP pick on multiple levels.

Weak VP choice, huh?! In a state thats crucial to win for republicans a two term governor that has good approval ratings would be a weak VP choice??? He would be on many potential republicans short list for VP that's for sure.

If either Walker or Rubio get the nominee you can be sure they both take a VERY serious look at him.

Walker and Kasich hate each other and even if that weren't the case, Walker isn't going to pick another fiercely anti-union Governor from the Midwest with no foreign policy credentials who won't even help that much in his (Kasich's) home state.  Kasich isn't nearly as popular here as 2014 suggests (he didn't actually perform that much better than in 2010 in terms of his actual vote total, it's just that about 800,000 Strickland voters didn't show up to vote because of how awful FitzGerald was).  Plus, Kasich is extremely abrasive, not polished enough, wants to abolish the income tax, and was in charge of Lehmann Brothers' investment banking division when it filed for bankruptcy in 2008 (among other things).  Most importantly, he'd only provide a minimal boost in Ohio (and possibly not even that) and wouldn't significantly improve the Republican nominee's chances in the state.

He would only help and not hurt.....but yes i do agree he makes little sense for walker, Rubio would make a ton of sense for Walker as his VP.

But for Rubio he would make a ton of sense, to have candidates from two crucial must win states for republicans would only help there chances there (Florida & Ohio).

As for bush i see him picking Susanna Martinez if he gets the nomination.

I don't see anyone else with a realistic chance at actually winning the nomination, it will be one of those three. JMHO of course.

Kasich won't secure Ohio for the Republican nominee any more than Ryan secured Wisconsin for Romney.  Martinez won't be the VP pick either, in fact, she's probably never going to run for federal office.  She's seemed pretty set on continuing to take care of her disabled sister and wouldn't be able to do that if she were the Vice-Presidential nominee.

Ohio IS MUCH more of a swing state than Wisconsin ever was, a couple percentage points there could make a difference.

LOL do you know susanna martinez? Why based on some comments shes made in the past? Yeah politicians never lie. Lets see a candidate win the nomination and see her turn down the VP nominee which would make her arguably the 2nd most powerful person in America and Set up a possible run for presidency in 2024 if republicans win and she is the sitting VP.

Yeah she's going to turn down those opportunities, comical.

Kasich wouldn't add a few percentage points.  At best you'll get somewhere between an extra 0.50% and 1% out of him, but possibly not even that much.  As for Martinez, some politicians are more ambitious than others.  Obviously I don't know her personally (and neither do you, btw), but she wouldn't even agree to being vetted by the Romney campaign in 2012.  She was pretty adamant about not being interested then and I don't see why that would change this time around no matter how much you want her on the ticket.

[Mr. Morden]

According to DMR's candidate tracker, Fiorina will make another visit to Iowa on March 13-14:

http://data.desmoinesregister.com/iowa-caucus/candidate-tracker/index.php

Santorum will also be in Iowa for an event on March 24, then Jindal on April 3.

[RogueBeaver]

Hillary hiring more staff.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Run Kasich Run!

He's not running.  He hasn't built any sort of national organization, he hasn't been traveling around the country to secure bundelers and operatives, and wouldn't even be that strong a candidate.  He is just enjoying the attention.

Will be on the top of the list for certain candidates to be the VP

I doubt it, he'd be a pretty weak VP pick on multiple levels.

Weak VP choice, huh?! In a state thats crucial to win for republicans a two term governor that has good approval ratings would be a weak VP choice??? He would be on many potential republicans short list for VP that's for sure.

If either Walker or Rubio get the nominee you can be sure they both take a VERY serious look at him.

Walker and Kasich hate each other and even if that weren't the case, Walker isn't going to pick another fiercely anti-union Governor from the Midwest with no foreign policy credentials who won't even help that much in his (Kasich's) home state.  Kasich isn't nearly as popular here as 2014 suggests (he didn't actually perform that much better than in 2010 in terms of his actual vote total, it's just that about 800,000 Strickland voters didn't show up to vote because of how awful FitzGerald was).  Plus, Kasich is extremely abrasive, not polished enough, wants to abolish the income tax, and was in charge of Lehmann Brothers' investment banking division when it filed for bankruptcy in 2008 (among other things).  Most importantly, he'd only provide a minimal boost in Ohio (and possibly not even that) and wouldn't significantly improve the Republican nominee's chances in the state.

He would only help and not hurt.....but yes i do agree he makes little sense for walker, Rubio would make a ton of sense for Walker as his VP.

But for Rubio he would make a ton of sense, to have candidates from two crucial must win states for republicans would only help there chances there (Florida & Ohio).

As for bush i see him picking Susanna Martinez if he gets the nomination.

I don't see anyone else with a realistic chance at actually winning the nomination, it will be one of those three. JMHO of course.

Kasich won't secure Ohio for the Republican nominee any more than Ryan secured Wisconsin for Romney.  Martinez won't be the VP pick either, in fact, she's probably never going to run for federal office.  She's seemed pretty set on continuing to take care of her disabled sister and wouldn't be able to do that if she were the Vice-Presidential nominee.

Ohio IS MUCH more of a swing state than Wisconsin ever was, a couple percentage points there could make a difference.

LOL do you know susanna martinez? Why based on some comments shes made in the past? Yeah politicians never lie. Lets see a candidate win the nomination and see her turn down the VP nominee which would make her arguably the 2nd most powerful person in America and Set up a possible run for presidency in 2024 if republicans win and she is the sitting VP.

Yeah she's going to turn down those opportunities, comical.

Kasich wouldn't add a few percentage points.  At best you'll get somewhere between an extra 0.50% and 1% out of him, but possibly not even that much.  As for Martinez, some politicians are more ambitious than others.  Obviously I don't know her personally (and neither do you, btw), but she wouldn't even agree to being vetted by the Romney campaign in 2012.  She was pretty adamant about not being interested then and I don't see why that would change this time around no matter how much you want her on the ticket.

I guess we will have to agree to disagree on both points haha

[Blair]

Run Kasich Run!

He's not running.  He hasn't built any sort of national organization, he hasn't been traveling around the country to secure bundelers and operatives, and wouldn't even be that strong a candidate.  He is just enjoying the attention.

Will be on the top of the list for certain candidates to be the VP

I doubt it, he'd be a pretty weak VP pick on multiple levels.

Weak VP choice, huh?! In a state thats crucial to win for republicans a two term governor that has good approval ratings would be a weak VP choice??? He would be on many potential republicans short list for VP that's for sure.

If either Walker or Rubio get the nominee you can be sure they both take a VERY serious look at him.

Walker and Kasich hate each other and even if that weren't the case, Walker isn't going to pick another fiercely anti-union Governor from the Midwest with no foreign policy credentials who won't even help that much in his (Kasich's) home state.  Kasich isn't nearly as popular here as 2014 suggests (he didn't actually perform that much better than in 2010 in terms of his actual vote total, it's just that about 800,000 Strickland voters didn't show up to vote because of how awful FitzGerald was).  Plus, Kasich is extremely abrasive, not polished enough, wants to abolish the income tax, and was in charge of Lehmann Brothers' investment banking division when it filed for bankruptcy in 2008 (among other things).  Most importantly, he'd only provide a minimal boost in Ohio (and possibly not even that) and wouldn't significantly improve the Republican nominee's chances in the state.

He would only help and not hurt.....but yes i do agree he makes little sense for walker, Rubio would make a ton of sense for Walker as his VP.

But for Rubio he would make a ton of sense, to have candidates from two crucial must win states for republicans would only help there chances there (Florida & Ohio).

As for bush i see him picking Susanna Martinez if he gets the nomination.

I don't see anyone else with a realistic chance at actually winning the nomination, it will be one of those three. JMHO of course.

Kasich won't secure Ohio for the Republican nominee any more than Ryan secured Wisconsin for Romney.  Martinez won't be the VP pick either, in fact, she's probably never going to run for federal office.  She's seemed pretty set on continuing to take care of her disabled sister and wouldn't be able to do that if she were the Vice-Presidential nominee.

Ohio IS MUCH more of a swing state than Wisconsin ever was, a couple percentage points there could make a difference.

LOL do you know susanna martinez? Why based on some comments shes made in the past? Yeah politicians never lie. Lets see a candidate win the nomination and see her turn down the VP nominee which would make her arguably the 2nd most powerful person in America and Set up a possible run for presidency in 2024 if republicans win and she is the sitting VP.

Yeah she's going to turn down those opportunities, comical.

Your history knowledge is quite sparse

[JRP1994]

Run Kasich Run!

He's not running.  He hasn't built any sort of national organization, he hasn't been traveling around the country to secure bundelers and operatives, and wouldn't even be that strong a candidate.  He is just enjoying the attention.

Will be on the top of the list for certain candidates to be the VP

I doubt it, he'd be a pretty weak VP pick on multiple levels.

Weak VP choice, huh?! In a state thats crucial to win for republicans a two term governor that has good approval ratings would be a weak VP choice??? He would be on many potential republicans short list for VP that's for sure.

If either Walker or Rubio get the nominee you can be sure they both take a VERY serious look at him.

Walker and Kasich hate each other and even if that weren't the case, Walker isn't going to pick another fiercely anti-union Governor from the Midwest with no foreign policy credentials who won't even help that much in his (Kasich's) home state.  Kasich isn't nearly as popular here as 2014 suggests (he didn't actually perform that much better than in 2010 in terms of his actual vote total, it's just that about 800,000 Strickland voters didn't show up to vote because of how awful FitzGerald was).  Plus, Kasich is extremely abrasive, not polished enough, wants to abolish the income tax, and was in charge of Lehmann Brothers' investment banking division when it filed for bankruptcy in 2008 (among other things).  Most importantly, he'd only provide a minimal boost in Ohio (and possibly not even that) and wouldn't significantly improve the Republican nominee's chances in the state.

To be fair, it's not like Ohio is D+3 or something. It should be slightly Republican-leaning, so a minimal boost might significantly improve the Republican nominee's chances in the state.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Run Kasich Run!

He's not running.  He hasn't built any sort of national organization, he hasn't been traveling around the country to secure bundelers and operatives, and wouldn't even be that strong a candidate.  He is just enjoying the attention.

Will be on the top of the list for certain candidates to be the VP

I doubt it, he'd be a pretty weak VP pick on multiple levels.

Weak VP choice, huh?! In a state thats crucial to win for republicans a two term governor that has good approval ratings would be a weak VP choice??? He would be on many potential republicans short list for VP that's for sure.

If either Walker or Rubio get the nominee you can be sure they both take a VERY serious look at him.

Walker and Kasich hate each other and even if that weren't the case, Walker isn't going to pick another fiercely anti-union Governor from the Midwest with no foreign policy credentials who won't even help that much in his (Kasich's) home state.  Kasich isn't nearly as popular here as 2014 suggests (he didn't actually perform that much better than in 2010 in terms of his actual vote total, it's just that about 800,000 Strickland voters didn't show up to vote because of how awful FitzGerald was).  Plus, Kasich is extremely abrasive, not polished enough, wants to abolish the income tax, and was in charge of Lehmann Brothers' investment banking division when it filed for bankruptcy in 2008 (among other things).  Most importantly, he'd only provide a minimal boost in Ohio (and possibly not even that) and wouldn't significantly improve the Republican nominee's chances in the state.

To be fair, it's not like Ohio is D+3 or something. It should be slightly Republican-leaning, so a minimal boost might significantly improve the Republican nominee's chances in the state.

When I say minimal, I mean .50-1.00%, if that.

[Mr. Morden]

No indication that Pence is preparing for a presidential run:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/twenty-sixteen/mike-pence-isn-t-preparing-to-run-for-president-20150227

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[Simfan34]

According to DMR's candidate tracker, Fiorina will make another visit to Iowa on March 13-14:

http://data.desmoinesregister.com/iowa-caucus/candidate-tracker/index.php

I don't get it.

[RogueBeaver]

NYT on the donor primary.

[Mr. Morden]

According to DMR's candidate tracker, Fiorina will make another visit to Iowa on March 13-14:

http://data.desmoinesregister.com/iowa-caucus/candidate-tracker/index.php

I don't get it.

What don't you get?

[RogueBeaver]

Hillary's telling donors she'll launch next month.

[moderatevoter]

Hillary's telling donors she'll launch next month.

Get hype, IceSpear.

[IceSpear]

Hillary's telling donors she'll launch next month.

Get hype, IceSpear.

Wonderful news! April sounds much better than July.

Too bad the article is behind a paywall.

[RogueBeaver]

As with all WSJ (& NYT) articles, just Google the headline.

[IceSpear]

As with all WSJ (& NYT) articles, just Google the headline.

Neat trick, thanks!

[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee on a potential run:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/234253-huckabee-2016-decision-forthcoming

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