The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2)

[Bull Moose Base]

Let's see, we have Walker, Huckabee, Santorum, and Cruz all competing for the Iowa Pub evangelical vote (with Carson and Jindal out there somewhere, and maybe Perry reading up on his Bible). Sounds good to me!

Why does that sound good to you? Because of a vote split? Last time, with days left before voting, Perry, Bachmann, Santorum and Gingrich were all about tied in Iowa polling, pretty far behind Romney and Paul. So Cons are fairly likely to rally disproportionately to one choice. The other effect of an abundance of religious candidates- including not just these but also Rubio, Kasich, Paul, even Bush who is wooing them- is it creates a race to be as socially conservative as possible. I also wouldn't say the Iowa winner is an unlikely nominee. Huckabee and Santorum were at huge financial disadvantages, but W and Dole were not.

[Ebsy]

Bush is looking at a mid-June announcement, shortly after an early June trip to Europe:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/jeb-bush-right-to-rise-super-pac-campaign-117753.html?hp=t3_r

Lots of Republican primary voters in Europe.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush is looking at a mid-June announcement, shortly after an early June trip to Europe:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/jeb-bush-right-to-rise-super-pac-campaign-117753.html?hp=t3_r

Lots of Republican primary voters in Europe.

When governors run for president, traveling overseas is meant to build up foreign policy cred, or something like that.

[Mr. Morden]

Christie, Graham, Kasich, Rubio, and Walker will all be attending Romney's donors retreat in Utah from June 11-13:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2015/05/07/mitt-romney-convenes-2016-contenders-donors-for-utah-retreat/

[Mr. Morden]

The Louisiana legislative session wraps up on June 11th, and Jindal says he won't announce any presidential plans until after that session is over:

http://theadvocate.com/news/12327381-123/gov-bobby-jindal-tells-crowds

Meanwhile, potential rivals Jindal and Santorum are planning to go on a Family Research Council-sponsored trip to Israel from Oct. 27 - Nov. 6:

http://www.bayoubuzz.com/louisiana-news/louisiana-politics/item/875220-heres-your-chance-to-visit-israel-with-gov-jindal-and-david-vitter-and-nolacom

That's actually oddly late in the campaign cycle to be taking more than a week off of the campaign trail to go on a foreign trip.  I hope they don't miss any debates.

[Torie]

Let's see, we have Walker, Huckabee, Santorum, and Cruz all competing for the Iowa Pub evangelical vote (with Carson and Jindal out there somewhere, and maybe Perry reading up on his Bible). Sounds good to me!

Why does that sound good to you? Because of a vote split? Last time, with days left before voting, Perry, Bachmann, Santorum and Gingrich were all about tied in Iowa polling, pretty far behind Romney and Paul. So Cons are fairly likely to rally disproportionately to one choice. The other effect of an abundance of religious candidates- including not just these but also Rubio, Kasich, Paul, even Bush who is wooing them- is it creates a race to be as socially conservative as possible. I also wouldn't say the Iowa winner is an unlikely nominee. Huckabee and Santorum were at huge financial disadvantages, but W and Dole were not.

Well, other than splitting the vote, you just use them all as foils - the more the merrier - get your more secular slice of the vote - and beam it all back to NH. I would like to think Pub voters are finally getting the message that all of this nonsense first really contains little of substance when it comes to public policy (fine they need Jesus to be near, and pray every day, and so forth, but what does that mean about public policy?), while being politically toxic at the same time. And now between the public opinion polls, and SCOTUS out there, they won't even have the bloody shirt of SSM to wave around, without looking like fools.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump says he will announce his decision "very soon":

http://dailycaller.com/2015/05/09/trump-im-really-serious-about-2016/

[Mr. Morden]

A week ago, Perry said he'd announce a decision on whether to run "around June 1".  On Saturday, he gave a similar estimate, saying that the announcement would come "within 30 days":

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-05-09/over-barbecue-in-south-carolina-rick-perry-hypes-supreme-court-as-defining-2016-issue

[Mr. Morden]

Trump says he will announce his decision "very soon":

http://dailycaller.com/2015/05/09/trump-im-really-serious-about-2016/

And now John Bolton says the same…that he will make an announcement on his 2016 plans "very soon":

link

[Mr. Morden]

In addition to the already-declared candidates, Graham, Perry, and Walker will be doing a "pig roast and motorcycle ride" fundraiser for Joni Ernst's PAC on June 6 in Boone, Iowa:

http://www.kcrg.com/subject/news/ernst-to-host-2016-presidential-candidates-at-pig-roast-motorcycle-ride-20150511

[Mr. Morden]

Graham has indicated that he'll announce his intentions on June 1st.  Oddly enough, the following week, he's planning to do a fundraiser for his Senate PAC:

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/05/12/lindsey-graham/

He's not up for reelection in the Senate until 2020.

[Ebsy]

Graham has indicated that he'll announce his intentions on June 1st.  Oddly enough, the following week, he's planning to do a fundraiser for his Senate PAC:

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/05/12/lindsey-graham/

He's not up for reelection in the Senate until 2020.

He's already said he knows he can't win and just wants to... serve... as a voice in the primary for the interventionist wing of the party against the nefarious Rand Paul.

[Mr. Morden]

Graham will speak at the "Lincoln-Reagan dinner" in Nashua, NH on May 15th:

http://www.wmur.com/politics/graham-to-speak-at-nashua-dinner/32952178

[Mr. Morden]

Latest from Biden-world:

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/ken-walshs-washington/2015/05/12/joe-biden-is-biding-his-time

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Torie]

Latest from Biden-world:

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/ken-walshs-washington/2015/05/12/joe-biden-is-biding-his-time

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In other words, he's standby equipment in case Clinton implodes either by scandal or otherwise.

[PPT Spiral]

Bolton is announcing his decision tomorrrow. He'll do it online, with a conference call soon to follow.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Bolton is announcing his decision tomorrrow. He'll do it online, with a conference call soon to follow.

His announcement feels like a non-event to me.

[The Other Castro]

He'd have a major advantage in New England. The Boltons do currently control the North, after all.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush was in Nevada today:

http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-presidential-contender-jeb-bush-flames-out-on-iraq-question-20150513-gh171v

[Ebsy]

Bush was in Nevada today:

http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-presidential-contender-jeb-bush-flames-out-on-iraq-question-20150513-gh171v

I love the url.

[RogueBeaver]

O'Malley announcing on the 30th.

[Mr. Morden]

Scheduled upcoming announcements:

May 14th (today): Bolton
May 27th: Santorum
May 30th: O'Malley
June 1st: Graham

And then, the slightly less specific:

Pataki: before the end of this month
Perry: "around June 1st"
Webb: on May 6th, he said "within a month"
Bush: mid-June

[Lief 🗽]

Poor O'Malley. Whatever announcement bump he'll have hoped of getting is going to be obliterated by the national coverage of Lindsay's entrance into the race.

[Mr. Morden]

In neither the 2008 nor 2012 election cycles do I remember such a large fraction of the candidates announcing their announcement dates weeks in advance.  It seemed to be more common in those earlier cycles for candidates to take us by surprise, and announce with no or little notice.

[Ebsy]

Didn't Jeb Bush's initial announcement sort of catch everyone by surprise?