The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2)

[TarHeelDem]

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/lindsey-graham-make-very-important-2016-announcement?cid=sm_tw_msnbc

Graham to make important 2016 update Monday morning

[The Other Castro]

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/lindsey-graham-make-very-important-2016-announcement?cid=sm_tw_msnbc

Graham to make important 2016 update Monday morning

Apparently it's not his announcement yet. If he's already 99.9% sure he's running, what else could he possibly have to update?

[PPT Spiral]

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/lindsey-graham-make-very-important-2016-announcement?cid=sm_tw_msnbc

Graham to make important 2016 update Monday morning

Apparently it's not his announcement yet. If he's already 99.9% sure he's running, what else could he possibly have to update?

If Graham doesn't outright say he's running earlier than expected, he'll just give the date of his announcement, most likely.

[Likely Voter]

Kasich should get in while the 'Jeb is in trouble' iron is hot. Also the later he waits, the more he risks not even making the cut for the debates.

Graham has the same debate cutoff problem. I guess tonight he announced that tomorrow he will announce his future announcement date.

[Phony Moderate]

Didn't Kasich run in 2000 as a very-much-not-a-moderate-hero candidate?

[Mr. Morden]

Didn't Kasich run in 2000 as a very-much-not-a-moderate-hero candidate?

He ran as a "budget hawk"--a Paul Ryan without the Ayn Rand-ian moralizing.  Which is pretty much what he was in Congress.  He was of course chairman of the House Budget Committee in the 1990s, during the budget clashes with Clinton.  He was chairman during the brief period in the 90s when the government was running surpluses.

As governor of Ohio, though, at least as his reelection was approaching, he started talking about how the social safety net is important.  See:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/29/us/politics/ohio-governor-defies-gop-with-defense-of-social-safety-net.html?_r=0

That was definitely a break with his earlier self.

OTOH, he's never really been a culture warrior-type.  He's always had conservative positions on social issues, but has always tended to focus on economic issues.

[RogueBeaver]

Jindal launches exploratory committee.

[Torie]

June 4 is Perry's announcement date.

Why does Perry have this uncontrollable compulsion for self humiliation? And just who is going to give him any money this time?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

June 4 is Perry's announcement date.

Why does Perry have this uncontrollable compulsion for self humiliation? And just who is going to give him any money this time?

He thinks he's learned his lessons from his 2012 campaign and can win this time.

[Joe Biden 2020]

June 4 is Perry's announcement date.

Why does Perry have this uncontrollable compulsion for self humiliation? And just who is going to give him any money this time?

The former governor doesn't have anything else to do apparently.

[RogueBeaver]

Jeb and Walker soliciting DC support.

[Mr. Morden]

The chair of the Indiana GOP says that Pence is planning to announce his reelection bid next month…which presumably means he's not running for president:

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2015/05/18/pence-to-announce-reelection-bid-during-gop-dinner/27554571/

AFAIK, Pence himself has yet to confirm this.

[Likely Voter]

the whole religious freedom flap in IN seems to have vaporized all the low level buzz for Pence. I wonder if - when he signed that bill - he thought he was actually giving his Presidential chances a boost, hoping he would be rewarded by the religious right.

[BaconBacon96]

Oh that was quite likely the intention. If he wins reelection, expect him to be a major contender for the social conservative vote come 2020.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Pence confirms he is not running.

[Likely Voter]

So it looks like we have

6 announced
Cruz
Carson
Fiorina
Rubio
Huckabee
Paul

4 announced they will announce
Graham
Pataki
Perry
Santorum

2 certain to announce
Bush
Walker

3 almost certain to announce
Christie
Jindal
Kasich

That gets you to 15

Then there are still 4 maybes
Trump
Erlich
Gilmore
King

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/martin-omalley-2016-presidential-launch-details-118090.html?hp=b2_c1

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And then we have this:

http://omalleyannouncement.com



Meanwhile, in Biden-world:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/05/19/are-you-ready-for-president-biden.html

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He'll decide in the next four weeks or by the end of the summer?  There's a pretty big gap between those two timeframes.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush and Gilmore will both be in New Hampshire again this week:

http://www.necn.com/news/politics/Christie-Bush-Clinton-in-New-Hampshire-This-Week-304133511.html

Then we have the following potential candidates visiting New Hampshire in early June:

http://www.necn.com/news/politics/New-Hampshire-Candidate-Tracker-295977311.html

June 4: Kasich
June 5: Ehrlich
June 6: Webb

Meanwhile, Christie has events in Iowa on both June 6th and 11th:

http://data.desmoinesregister.com/iowa-caucus/candidate-tracker/index.php

And on July 18th, Jindal and Santorum will join some of the already declared candidates for a "Family Leadership Summit" in Ames, Iowa.

[Mr. Morden]

Peter King says that the odds of him running for president are "50/50", and that he'll make a decision by the end of June:

https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/242688-peter-king-50-50-odds-hell-run-in-2016

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[Lief 🗽]

O'Malley plans to shutter the D.C. office of his political action committee, O'Say Can You See

good lord

[King]

Lol'Malley

[Mr. Morden]

Chafee says he's more than 95% likely to run, and that he'll announce "before mid-June":

http://www.nh1.com/news/steinhauser-chafee-criticizes-clinton-says-hes-almost-100-certain-to-run-for-wh/

[King]

Chafee is the biggest joke candidate in the history of joke candidates. Your average county board member has more gravitas than him. It's remarkable he's ever been elected to anything.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Chafee is the biggest joke candidate in the history of joke candidates. Your average county board member has more gravitas than him. It's remarkable he's ever been elected to anything.

Surely at least one of Carly Fiornia, Donald Trump, or Ben Carson is more of a joke.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Chafee is the biggest joke candidate in the history of joke candidates. Your average county board member has more gravitas than him. It's remarkable he's ever been elected to anything.

Surely at least one of Carly Fiornia, Donald Trump, or Ben Carson is more of a joke.

Carson is not really a joke candidate. The guy is LEADING in GA. Even Trump is polling fifth or so in New Hampshire. Fiorina is the only one of those three who appears to be a complete joke, but even she would get the nomination before that governor from New York with like 12% name recognition. What was his name again? Georgina Pataka or something?