The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2)

[publicunofficial]

Chafee is the biggest joke candidate in the history of joke candidates. Your average county board member has more gravitas than him. It's remarkable he's ever been elected to anything.

Surely at least one of Carly Fiornia, Donald Trump, or Ben Carson is more of a joke.

Carson is not really a joke candidate. The guy is LEADING in GA. Even Trump is polling fifth or so in New Hampshire. Fiorina is the only one of those three who appears to be a complete joke, but even she would get the nomination before that governor from New York with like 12% name recognition. What was his name again? Georgina Pataka or something?

Just because a guy has a lot of support doesn't mean he isn't a joke candidate. How many joke candidate where the frontrunner at some point in 2012?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Chafee is the biggest joke candidate in the history of joke candidates. Your average county board member has more gravitas than him. It's remarkable he's ever been elected to anything.

Surely at least one of Carly Fiornia, Donald Trump, or Ben Carson is more of a joke.

Carson is not really a joke candidate. The guy is LEADING in GA. Even Trump is polling fifth or so in New Hampshire. Fiorina is the only one of those three who appears to be a complete joke, but even she would get the nomination before that governor from New York with like 12% name recognition. What was his name again? Georgina Pataka or something?

Just because a guy has a lot of support doesn't mean he isn't a joke candidate. How many joke candidate where the frontrunner at some point in 2012?

I define a joke candidate as someone who is essentially hopeless in terms of getting the nomination, not someone who is simply inexperienced or unelectable in the GE. Bachmann in say, November 2011, would have qualified. She wouldn't have qualified in august when she was winning the ames straw poll. Carson may qualify in the future, but he doesn't for now.

[Maxwell]

Chafee is the biggest joke candidate in the history of joke candidates. Your average county board member has more gravitas than him. It's remarkable he's ever been elected to anything.

Surely at least one of Carly Fiornia, Donald Trump, or Ben Carson is more of a joke.

Carson is not really a joke candidate. The guy is LEADING in GA. Even Trump is polling fifth or so in New Hampshire. Fiorina is the only one of those three who appears to be a complete joke, but even she would get the nomination before that governor from New York with like 12% name recognition. What was his name again? Georgina Pataka or something?

Just because a guy has a lot of support doesn't mean he isn't a joke candidate. How many joke candidate where the frontrunner at some point in 2012?

I define a joke candidate as someone who is essentially hopeless in terms of getting the nomination, not someone who is simply inexperienced or unelectable in the GE. Bachmann in say, November 2011, would have qualified. She wouldn't have qualified in august when she was winning the ames straw poll. Carson may qualify in the future, but he doesn't for now.

And Ben Carson is a joke candidate. Even if he won a primary, he would be slaughtered with press and attack ads and would not even get close to the nomination.

[Mr. Morden]

This weekend, the GOP candidates are in Oklahoma City for the Southern Republican Leadership Conference.  Some of the speakers include:

http://www.srlc.gop/events/southern-republican-leadership-conference/speakers-c98988953d0f406c8aedc02da46c0a7e.aspx

Bush
Carson
Cruz
Everson
Fiorina
Graham
Jindal
Perry
Rubio
Santorum
Walker

According to this story:

http://swtimes.com/news/politics/three-speakers-added-oklahoma-gop-conference-agenda

Christie and Gilmore will be speaking as well.

[King]

Chafee is the biggest joke candidate in the history of joke candidates. Your average county board member has more gravitas than him. It's remarkable he's ever been elected to anything.

Surely at least one of Carly Fiornia, Donald Trump, or Ben Carson is more of a joke.

They know how to play up to a base and get applause lines at least. Chafee is miraculously boring and doesn't even come across as smart.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Chafee is the biggest joke candidate in the history of joke candidates. Your average county board member has more gravitas than him. It's remarkable he's ever been elected to anything.

Surely at least one of Carly Fiornia, Donald Trump, or Ben Carson is more of a joke.

Carson is not really a joke candidate. The guy is LEADING in GA. Even Trump is polling fifth or so in New Hampshire. Fiorina is the only one of those three who appears to be a complete joke, but even she would get the nomination before that governor from New York with like 12% name recognition. What was his name again? Georgina Pataka or something?

Just because a guy has a lot of support doesn't mean he isn't a joke candidate. How many joke candidate where the frontrunner at some point in 2012?

I define a joke candidate as someone who is essentially hopeless in terms of getting the nomination, not someone who is simply inexperienced or unelectable in the GE. Bachmann in say, November 2011, would have qualified. She wouldn't have qualified in august when she was winning the ames straw poll. Carson may qualify in the future, but he doesn't for now.

And Ben Carson is a joke candidate. Even if he won a primary, he would be slaughtered with press and attack ads and would not even get close to the nomination.

When does GA fall in the primary calendar for 2016?  I'm wondering if Carson would even make it that far?

[Mr. Morden]

Chafee is the biggest joke candidate in the history of joke candidates. Your average county board member has more gravitas than him. It's remarkable he's ever been elected to anything.

Surely at least one of Carly Fiornia, Donald Trump, or Ben Carson is more of a joke.

Carson is not really a joke candidate. The guy is LEADING in GA. Even Trump is polling fifth or so in New Hampshire. Fiorina is the only one of those three who appears to be a complete joke, but even she would get the nomination before that governor from New York with like 12% name recognition. What was his name again? Georgina Pataka or something?

Just because a guy has a lot of support doesn't mean he isn't a joke candidate. How many joke candidate where the frontrunner at some point in 2012?

I define a joke candidate as someone who is essentially hopeless in terms of getting the nomination, not someone who is simply inexperienced or unelectable in the GE. Bachmann in say, November 2011, would have qualified. She wouldn't have qualified in august when she was winning the ames straw poll. Carson may qualify in the future, but he doesn't for now.

And Ben Carson is a joke candidate. Even if he won a primary, he would be slaughtered with press and attack ads and would not even get close to the nomination.

When does GA fall in the primary calendar for 2016?  I'm wondering if Carson would even make it that far?

The Georgia primary date isn't set yet, because Georgia law gives either the governor or secretary of state (I forget which) the power to unilaterally set the primary date within a certain range, and he hasn't done so yet.

However, everyone is expecting that Georgia will set their primary for Super Tuesday (March 1) this time, since that's when most of the Southern states seem to be clustering.

[PPT Spiral]

Looks like Pataki will be running after all.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Looks like Pataki will be running after all.

I stand by my prediction that he has a 0% chance (not close to 0, but real, actual zero) of winning the nomination. But still, welcome to the race, Mr. Pataki.

[NewYorkExpress]

Looks like Pataki will be running after all.

I stand by my prediction that he has a 0% chance (not close to 0, but real, actual zero) of winning the nomination. But still, welcome to the race, Mr. Pataki.

He'd actually be in a good position if Jeb, Christie and Kasich all collapse (especially since the more conservative wing will be even more divided). He might force his way onto the ticket with a solid performance in New Hampshire at a minimum.

[Ebsy]

Looks like Pataki will be running after all.

I stand by my prediction that he has a 0% chance (not close to 0, but real, actual zero) of winning the nomination. But still, welcome to the race, Mr. Pataki.

He'd actually be in a good position if Jeb, Christie and Kasich all collapse (especially since the more conservative wing will be even more divided). He might force his way onto the ticket with a solid performance in New Hampshire at a minimum.

I think the best he could hope for was a surprising second or third in New Hampshire, thus making people take him seriously. But I severely doubt this will happen.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Looks like Pataki will be running after all.

I stand by my prediction that he has a 0% chance (not close to 0, but real, actual zero) of winning the nomination. But still, welcome to the race, Mr. Pataki.

He'd actually be in a good position if Jeb, Christie and Kasich all collapse (especially since the more conservative wing will be even more divided). He might force his way onto the ticket with a solid performance in New Hampshire at a minimum.

Pataki is a shoe-in once Jeb, Walker, Paul, Carson, Christie, Fiorina, Kasich, Cruz, Huckabee, Rubio, and Perry collapse.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Looks like Pataki will be running after all.

I stand by my prediction that he has a 0% chance (not close to 0, but real, actual zero) of winning the nomination. But still, welcome to the race, Mr. Pataki.

He'd actually be in a good position if Jeb, Christie and Kasich all collapse (especially since the more conservative wing will be even more divided). He might force his way onto the ticket with a solid performance in New Hampshire at a minimum.

Pataki is a shoe-in once Jeb, Walker, Paul, Carson, Christie, Fiorina, Kasich, Cruz, Huckabee, Rubio, and Perry collapse.

Seriously, what chance does he think he has now that he didn't back in 2012? He could've actually won the nomination 4 years ago.

[Naveen]

.Voteran the new fight begins.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Kasich is visiting GA and SC this week and seems close to entering:
http://huff.to/1ReJupB

[NewYorkExpress]

Looks like Pataki will be running after all.

I stand by my prediction that he has a 0% chance (not close to 0, but real, actual zero) of winning the nomination. But still, welcome to the race, Mr. Pataki.

He'd actually be in a good position if Jeb, Christie and Kasich all collapse (especially since the more conservative wing will be even more divided). He might force his way onto the ticket with a solid performance in New Hampshire at a minimum.

Pataki is a shoe-in once Jeb, Walker, Paul, Carson, Christie, Fiorina, Kasich, Cruz, Huckabee, Rubio, and Perry collapse.

Cruz, Huckabee, Carson, and Perry are fighting for a different base of voters, so Pataki only has to win the Moderate primary (plausible) and then win against the Conservative Primary's winner and Rand Paul (much less likely) to get the nomination.

I'd rate his chances at about 10%, same as Fiorina, ahead of Perry, and just behind Kasich.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Looks like Pataki will be running after all.

I stand by my prediction that he has a 0% chance (not close to 0, but real, actual zero) of winning the nomination. But still, welcome to the race, Mr. Pataki.

He'd actually be in a good position if Jeb, Christie and Kasich all collapse (especially since the more conservative wing will be even more divided). He might force his way onto the ticket with a solid performance in New Hampshire at a minimum.

Pataki is a shoe-in once Jeb, Walker, Paul, Carson, Christie, Fiorina, Kasich, Cruz, Huckabee, Rubio, and Perry collapse.

Cruz, Huckabee, Carson, and Perry are fighting for a different base of voters, so Pataki only has to win the Moderate primary (plausible) and then win against the Conservative Primary's winner and Rand Paul (much less likely) to get the nomination.

I'd rate his chances at about 10%, same as Fiorina, ahead of Perry, and just behind Kasich.

Fiorina has a 10% chance at the nomination? LOLOLOLOL

[NewYorkExpress]

Looks like Pataki will be running after all.

I stand by my prediction that he has a 0% chance (not close to 0, but real, actual zero) of winning the nomination. But still, welcome to the race, Mr. Pataki.

He'd actually be in a good position if Jeb, Christie and Kasich all collapse (especially since the more conservative wing will be even more divided). He might force his way onto the ticket with a solid performance in New Hampshire at a minimum.

Pataki is a shoe-in once Jeb, Walker, Paul, Carson, Christie, Fiorina, Kasich, Cruz, Huckabee, Rubio, and Perry collapse.

Cruz, Huckabee, Carson, and Perry are fighting for a different base of voters, so Pataki only has to win the Moderate primary (plausible) and then win against the Conservative Primary's winner and Rand Paul (much less likely) to get the nomination.

I'd rate his chances at about 10%, same as Fiorina, ahead of Perry, and just behind Kasich.

Fiorina has a 10% chance at the nomination? LOLOLOLOL

I think the only Republican is DOA at this point is Lindsey Graham.... It's just too unstable to write off anyone else.

[Mr. Morden]

Graham is on a trip to Israel, and will meet with Netanyahu on Wednesday:

http://www.postandcourier.com/article/20150526/PC1603/150529457/1177/lindsey-graham-to-meet-with-benjamin-netanyahu-in-israel-on-wednesday

I feel like about 2/3rds of the GOP field has visited Israel in the last two years.

[Mr. Morden]

Palin comments on the prospects of a run:

http://extratv.com/2015/05/21/is-sarah-palin-running-for-president-she-gives-details-on-gop-2016-race/

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[RogueBeaver]

Kasich announcing this summer. Christie doing pre-announcement tour next month.

[King]

Kasich announcing this summer. Christie doing pre-announcement tour next month.

"Summer."

Maybe Kasich is trying to be a late entry savior candidate.

[Vega]

Palin comments on the prospects of a run:

http://extratv.com/2015/05/21/is-sarah-palin-running-for-president-she-gives-details-on-gop-2016-race/

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No joke candidates plz.

[Mr. Morden]

As previously noted here, O'Malley's planning to announce his 2016 intentions in Baltimore on Saturday.  Gee, I wonder what he'll decide...given that he's immediately thereafter heading to Iowa and New Hampshire:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/may/27/martin-omalley-headed-to-iowa-nh-after-2016-announ/

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Likewise, Graham is set to announce his intentions on June 1st, and then will be in New Hampshire on June 3rd:

http://www.necn.com/news/politics/New-Hampshire-Candidate-Tracker-295977311.html

That link also notes that Christie has unspecified New Hampshire events coming up on June 4th, 8th, and 18th.  Christie will also be in West Des Moines, Iowa on June 11th:

http://data.desmoinesregister.com/iowa-caucus/candidate-tracker/index.php

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich announcing this summer.

More specifically, it says he "is looking to declare his candidacy sometime after June 30".  Like I said elsewhere, he pretty much has to declare his candidacy by about the first half of July if he wants a shot at a debate invite.