The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2)

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Announcement Schedule:

Christie: June 30
King, Kasich, Webb: Considering how late it is in June, probably early July
Walker: "Week of July 13"
Biden: By Aug. 1
Gilmore: He plans to participate in the Fox 'Forum' in August, so presumably early to mid july so pollsters start including him in time
Ehrlich: No idea. Seems to have lost all interest in running.

Someone actually has no interest in running?  For 2016 that's a rarity...

There was Bolton, but yeah, it's pretty rare.

Romney was someone who would have actually had a chance and turned it down.  Ryan too.

[Mr. Morden]

Peter King will be on ABC's "This Week" on Sunday:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/sunday-week-supreme-courts-historic-gay-marriage-ruling/story?id=32060441

Do you think they'll ask him about his presidential plans, or is he too low profile for the hosts to remember that he's "thinking about running"?

[Mr. Morden]

The Webb people say that he was going to announce on Friday night, but got "sandbagged" by the Clinton campaign:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/06/27/webb-close-to-2016-decision-insiders-say-clinton-camp-helped-delay-launch/

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What does Webb say now about when he'll announce?

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[Atlas Has Shrugged]

The Webb people say that he was going to announce on Friday night, but got "sandbagged" by the Clinton campaign:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/06/27/webb-close-to-2016-decision-insiders-say-clinton-camp-helped-delay-launch/

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What does Webb say now about when he'll announce?

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What a nasty person Hillary is.....but then again, I like my politics nasty .

[The Other Castro]

He didn't once consider the optics of announcing his run in Clinton, Iowa?

[RogueBeaver]

Kasich announcing July 21.

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich announcing July 21.

Doing it that late seems like a surefire way to not get invited to the first debate.  He needs all of the qualifying polls for the first debate to happen post-announcement bounce.  And it seems likely to me that some of those polls will already be starting by mid-July.

[Likely Voter]

Well based on the poll cutoff date there will be two weeks of polling after Kasich's announcement. Usually that would not be enough time for 5 polls, however I think his team are betting that the big polling outfits will cram their polls in that period because they will all want to be part of the 'last 5.' It is a calculated risk to maximize his bounce to get in. I think it might actually work but it is cutting it very close. He should at least be in 3 out of 5 polls.

Also I suspect he will go out of his way to try to get in the news during July, possibly announcing new initiatives in Ohio and/or doing lots of FOX interviews.  I would be that FOX will want to see him on that stage, the debate is held in his state FFS.

[Mr. Morden]

Peter King will be on ABC's "This Week" on Sunday:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/sunday-week-supreme-courts-historic-gay-marriage-ruling/story?id=32060441

Do you think they'll ask him about his presidential plans, or is he too low profile for the hosts to remember that he's "thinking about running"?

Here is the full transcript of the episode:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/week-transcript-gov-mike-huckabee-sen-bernie-sanders/story?id=32037293&singlePage=true

And the answer is no, he wasn't asked about his presidential plans, nor did he bring it up.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/beau-biden-push-joe-biden-running-2016-presidential-election-119524.html?hp=c2_3

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[Mr. Morden]

Webb's purported plan to announce in Clinton, Iowa over the weekend may have been foiled.  But on Tuesday, he's speaking at the National Sherrif's Association forum in Baltimore:

http://www.wbaltv.com/politics/presidential-candidates-speak-at-sheriffs-conference-in-baltimore/33835448

Will he announce there, or will he keep delaying?

[The Other Castro]

It seems like he just wants to get it out of the way at this point, so I'll say more likely than not that he announces.

[Quix]

I found a good site for the 2016 election (dc-rapsheet.com) they don't have all the candidates populated, but said on twitter they were finalizing new announcements.

That said I bet Romney re announces, but who from the dems?  Elizabeth Warren going to ankle bite Hillary or try to take on the VP slot?

[Mr. Morden]

It's June 30th.  Both Jim Webb and Peter King said they were going to decide this month, but no announcement on the horizon, as far as I can tell (except that the Webb people said that he was thinking about announcing last weekend…so is it imminent?).

King's presidential flirtation is especially weird.  As far as I can tell, the last event he did in an early primary state was in NH back in April.  If he's stopped doing those events, then you'd think that would be a sign that he'd be out.  Yet a few weeks ago, he was saying not so fast, I haven't decided yet, but I'll decide this month.

So is he going to actually make an announcement at some point, even if just to announce that he's not running?  Or will he just forget about it?  And the media will forget to ask him about it, because he's comparatively low profile, and there are so many real candidates to keep track of that he's forgotten?

[The Other Castro]

Webb says he will be making his decision in the next few days, which probably means he'll announce sometime next month at this rate.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/jim-webb-to-make-decision-on-presidential-run-in-few-days/2015/06/30/6c1732a8-1f41-11e5-aeb9-a411a84c9d55_story.html

[Horsemask]

It's June 30th.  Both Jim Webb and Peter King said they were going to decide this month, but no announcement on the horizon, as far as I can tell (except that the Webb people said that he was thinking about announcing last weekend…so is it imminent?).

King's presidential flirtation is especially weird.  As far as I can tell, the last event he did in an early primary state was in NH back in April.  If he's stopped doing those events, then you'd think that would be a sign that he'd be out.  Yet a few weeks ago, he was saying not so fast, I haven't decided yet, but I'll decide this month.

So is he going to actually make an announcement at some point, even if just to announce that he's not running?  Or will he just forget about it?  And the media will forget to ask him about it, because he's comparatively low profile, and there are so many real candidates to keep track of that he's forgotten?

I feel like he'll at least say definitively he isn't running. I don't see it just kinda disappearing or dropping off the radar (more than he seemingly already has), if that makes any sense.

Regardless, all of the evidence points to him not running. At this point, it wouldn't make sense for King to run. He has said that his main reason for running would be to make sure guys like Paul or Cruz don't win the nomination, and I think he'd be in a better position to achieve that goal not as a candidate.

[RogueBeaver]

WI legislative leaders have reached a budget deal, details tomorrow.

[Likely Voter]

I think it is fair to say that the next president of the United States has announced (or has a pending announcement). The few stragglers remaining on the GOP side will never see a debate stage and will likely drop out before IA (if they ever get in). As for Webb, he could possibly get into some debates but not sure where he fits in to 2016's Democratic party. He and Chafee can fight over the handful of Dems primary voters who think Hillary is too much of a liberal.

[Mr. Morden]

Because of the declining number of potential future entrants to the race, at some point (presumably in the month of July), I'll unsticky this thread.  I don't think we're quite there yet though.

[Horsemask]

I think it is fair to say that the next president of the United States has announced (or has a pending announcement). The few stragglers remaining on the GOP side will never see a debate stage and will likely drop out before IA (if they ever get in). As for Webb, he could possibly get into some debates but not sure where he fits in to 2016's Democratic party. He and Chafee can fight over the handful of Dems primary voters who think Hillary is too much of a liberal.

Agreed in full. Once Kasich and Walker are in, we are set until August with the first debates.

[Mr. Morden]

Peter King speaks:

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsmax-Tv/Peter-King-presidential-run/2015/06/30/id/652914/

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[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Peter King speaks:

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsmax-Tv/Peter-King-presidential-run/2015/06/30/id/652914/

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Who exactly is he getting a "good response" from? When he's included in a poll, he languishes at the bottom. His name recongition sucks. He has nothing that no other candidate has -

If he goes for the "moderate outsider" wing? - Sorry, they already have Pataki, Christie, Kasich, and Rubio to choose from.

If he goes for the "hawk" wing? - Sorry, the field is full of them, seeing that only Paul has been clear and consistent on declaring the Iraq Invasion a mistake.

He can't point to electability - his district is R+1 and he hasn't had a serious challenger since the 90s.

Even on this site, which occasionally embraces candidates with little support from the full primary electorate, he gets a 91% HP rating per my poll series on the republican candidates. No other candidate was viewed that negatively, including those who have lost interest in running such as Rick Scott and Louie Gohmert.

There is literally no reason for Mr. King to run.

[The Other Castro]

Peter King just announced that he's not running for President. We will apprently not be having any Congressmen running for President.

[JonathanSwift]

Peter King just announced that he's not running for President. We will apprently not be having any Congressmen running for President.

Source?

[The Other Castro]

Peter King just announced that he's not running for President. We will apprently not be having any Congressmen running for President.

Source?

I was watching him live on CNN when he said it so there weren't any articles at the time.

http://m.news4jax.com/politics/rep-peter-king-wont-run-for-president/33912886