The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With King's withdrawal, we are down to 18 actual or potential candidates.

[JonathanSwift]

Peter King just announced that he's not running for President. We will apprently not be having any Congressmen running for President.

Source?

I was watching him live on CNN when he said it so there weren't any articles at the time.

http://m.news4jax.com/politics/rep-peter-king-wont-run-for-president/33912886

I figured that might be the case. Thank you.

[Gass3268]

Peter King speaks:

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsmax-Tv/Peter-King-presidential-run/2015/06/30/id/652914/

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Who exactly is he getting a "good response" from? When he's included in a poll, he languishes at the bottom. His name recongition sucks. He has nothing that no other candidate has -

If he goes for the "moderate outsider" wing? - Sorry, they already have Pataki, Christie, Kasich, and Rubio to choose from.

If he goes for the "hawk" wing? - Sorry, the field is full of them, seeing that only Paul has been clear and consistent on declaring the Iraq Invasion a mistake.

He can't point to electability - his district is R+1 and he hasn't had a serious challenger since the 90s.

Even on this site, which occasionally embraces candidates with little support from the full primary electorate, he gets a 91% HP rating per my poll series on the republican candidates. No other candidate was viewed that negatively, including those who have lost interest in running such as Rick Scott and Louie Gohmert.

There is literally no reason for Mr. King to run.

Since when is Rubio anywhere near a moderate?

[Mr. Morden]

Biden update:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jul/1/joe-biden-likely-to-join-2016-white-house-race-nex/

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[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Oh my god. Hillary is getting a challenger from the heart of the democratic establishment that supposedly loves her. So much for the democratic primary being boring, and so much for Hillary being inevitable. Start crying, Icespear!

[Mr. Morden]

Oh my god. Hillary is getting a challenger from the heart of the democratic establishment that supposedly loved her. So much for the democratic primary being boring.

I should note that I'm only seeing this on the Washington Times.  I'm not going to put that much stock into it until other outlets report something similar.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

It would be nice to see Biden run, then Hillary can get a more somewhat serious challenge to her coronation with the Democrats.

[RogueBeaver]

Walker filing today, will announce on the 13th.

[bballrox4717]

Oh my god. Hillary is getting a challenger from the heart of the democratic establishment that supposedly loves her. So much for the democratic primary being boring, and so much for Hillary being inevitable. Start crying, Icespear!

Um, no. This is the best thing that could happen to Hillary. Biden running completely changes the narrative of Hillary vs Sanders and makes it a multi polar race. Biden is a serious enough candidate to make the media chill on Sanders, but ultimately not good enough to beat her. Biden also challenges Hillary to become a more personable candidate as well. It just sets her up better in a general election if the primary isn't a coronation.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Oh my god. Hillary is getting a challenger from the heart of the democratic establishment that supposedly loves her. So much for the democratic primary being boring, and so much for Hillary being inevitable. Start crying, Icespear!

Um, no. This is the best thing that could happen to Hillary. Biden running completely changes the narrative of Hillary vs Sanders and makes it a multi polar race. Biden is a serious enough candidate to make the media chill on Sanders, but ultimately not good enough to beat her. Biden also challenges Hillary to become a more personable candidate as well. It just sets her up better in a general election if the primary isn't a coronation.

I agree with this.  One of the main things a Biden candidacy will do to make Clinton a better general election candidate is sharpen her debate skills.  Biden knows he probably won't win, but he could make a reasonable impersonation of Jeb Bush or whoever looks like will be the GOP nominee.  The Democrats should and would welcome a Biden candidacy.  The GOP should be concerned.

[Thunderbird is the word]

I think it is fair to say that the next president of the United States has announced (or has a pending announcement). The few stragglers remaining on the GOP side will never see a debate stage and will likely drop out before IA (if they ever get in). As for Webb, he could possibly get into some debates but not sure where he fits in to 2016's Democratic party. He and Chafee can fight over the handful of Dems primary voters who think Hillary is too much of a liberal.

They don't appeal to the same constituency. Chafee I think could do better then a lot of people think by appealing to anti-war and civil libertarian voters.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Jim Webb will announce his candidacy over social media later today according to my CNN app.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The remaining stragglers, rated from most likely to least likely to run:

Walker
Biden
Kasich
Gilmore
Ehrlich

[The Other Castro]

The remaining stragglers, rated from most likely to least likely to run:

Walker
Biden
Kasich
Gilmore
Ehrlich

Considering Kasich has set an announcement date and Gilmore is looking more likely than not to run while the Biden hype is based on one Democratic fundraiser, Biden should be below both of them (maybe above Ehrlich at best)

[Vega]

It's pretty clear Ehrlich isn't running, so he shouldn't be on any list.

[oeoyeleye]

Biden isn't running yet. Any respectable bundler wouldn't name himself in a story like this.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2015/0703/Will-Joe-Biden-run-for-president-Drumbeat-picks-up

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[Mr. Morden]

Random question: Am I the only one here who checks this Twitter account once every few days, to see if there's any news?:

https://twitter.com/bobehrlich2016

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Random question: Am I the only one here who checks this Twitter account once every few days, to say if there's any news?:

https://twitter.com/bobehrlich2016

Yes.

[Tender Branson]

Random question: Am I the only one here who checks this Twitter account once every few days, to say if there's any news?:

https://twitter.com/bobehrlich2016

Yes.

[Mr. Morden]

Gilmore speaks on a DC area radio show:

http://www.wmal.com/2015/07/03/mornings-on-the-mall-07-03-15/

If you download the podcast (yes, I'm downloading podcasts for campaign updates from Jim Gilmore), and go to ~34:30, he says:

-There's still an opening in the race, as the current field has deficiencies.
-He's still planning to attend that New Hampshire candidate forum on Aug. 6, the same day as the 1st debate (will he be the only one there, as all the real candidates are in Ohio?; also does he need to declare by then to participate?).
-He won't give a timeline on when he'll decide on whether to run, saying that there's still "plenty of time".

[Free Bird]

Jim, your definition of opening must be very different from the rest of the world's

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

That list of Candidates and status you made should be the OP or the one after it. Only update when necessary.

This way we can see if and when Trump, Graham, Kasich, Santorum, Walker, Bolten, Bush, Christie, Jindal, Pataki, Perry, Ehrlich, Gilmore, King,  Snyder, Palin, and Pence make their decisions.

Ok, since I made this post, who has confirmed that they are/n't running?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

That list of Candidates and status you made should be the OP or the one after it. Only update when necessary.

This way we can see if and when Trump, Graham, Kasich, Santorum, Walker, Bolten, Bush, Christie, Jindal, Pataki, Perry, Ehrlich, Gilmore, King,  Snyder, Palin, and Pence make their decisions.

Ok, since I made this post, who has confirmed that they are/n't running?

Bolten and King aren't, and I don't think Synder, Palin, and Pence are either.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

That list of Candidates and status you made should be the OP or the one after it. Only update when necessary.

This way we can see if and when Trump, Graham, Kasich, Santorum, Walker, Bolten, Bush, Christie, Jindal, Pataki, Perry, Ehrlich, Gilmore, King,  Snyder, Palin, and Pence make their decisions.

Ok, since I made this post, who has confirmed that they are/n't running?

Bolten and King aren't, and I don't think Synder, Palin, and Pence are either.

Snyder and Pence are not running. Palin hasn't officially ruled it out, but she hasn't said anything for several months.