The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Pitaki has no chance of running. He flirted with the idea in 08 and 12, making noise about running is just his way of staying in the papers. The last good shot he had was in 2000, he probably only would have run then though if McCain hadn't since McCain pretty much had the moderate vote locked up.

No chance of running? Can you read his mind?


I don't see him being nominated, but I'm not ruling out him running.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Christie's creating his foreign policy platform. Looks like Bush isn't keeping him out.
http://huff.to/1AQUQag

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

There's also Sanders, who will make his decision by late march. These could be pretty bunched together.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Run Kasich Run!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

And the effort to force Warren to run continues:
http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/24/opinion/jones-draft-elizabeth-warren/

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Martin O'Malley http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/01/us/politics/martin-omalley-in-veiled-jab-at-hillary-clinton-derides-politics-of-triangulation.html?_r=0 in South Carolina.

Wow, brutal. O'Malley is not one to be trifled with.

Yeah, O'Malley hates Hillary and her triangulation so much that he was one of the first people to endorse her in 2007.

What a hypocrite.

Probably more of a "I don't like her, but Biden/Dodd have no real shot at the nomination, and I'll take her over a couple of one term senators (Edwards, Obama), a total liberal loon (Kucinich, Gravel), and a decidedly average governor (Richardson)." rather than a truly enthusiastic endorsement.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

#GoWebb
#HillaryNotInvetiable

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hillary, Rand, Cruz, Rubio planning to launch next month.

So much for the "Cruz will not run" theory that select people were subscribing to.

With Sanders, I think he'll jump into the democratic field only due to the smallness of it. It'll be Clinton, O'Malley, and Webb, and he'll jump in "to broaden the number of choices avaliable to the voters" or something like that. I'd be really surprised if he runs as an independent right away, but I refuse to rule out him mounting an independent campaign after he concedes the democratic nomination to (presumably) Hillary.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Also, SC is anything but a lock for Graham. Last year, a bunch of nobodies got 44% against Graham in the senate primary .

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

They will probably unite around Cruz. Walker will eventually appeal to the establishment enough to anger them, Jindal has a terrible record as LA Governor by any reasonable measure, Huckabee is old news, and Perry can't even remember his own platform half the time.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hopefully she's decided not to run. Highly unlikely, I know. But possible.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Can't help but notice the article says intention.

No.  I used the word "intention" in my one sentence summary, but the actual text from the article says this on Clinton and O'Malley:

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I think it's fairly clear, WSJ...unless you're blind.

The possibilities are clear, but who will actually run, well, not so much.

Sanders - 50/50 chance
O'Malley - Very Likely
Hillary - Very Likely
Biden - Unlikely
Warren - No for now, but the current devoted draft effort could convince her to change her mind.
Webb - Likely
Some other candidate - Unlikely

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Another day, another refusal from Warren:

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http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2015/03/30/396383305/elizabeth-warren-on-hillary-clinton-and-running-for-president

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Washington Post: 72% of Americans think Hillary will run, but 58% do not want her to run, and 51% say she does not have "qualifications to be President".

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http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/mar/24/hillary-clinton72-percent-americans-say-shell-run-/

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Carson announcing early May.

Well, the GOP found a black guy to run. I suppose the dems should concede the black vote now.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, once she enters, Hillary will be guilty of the traditional crime of flip-flopping on whether to run for President.

Review: In late 2012/early 2013, she was saying (along the lines of) "I'm flattered you guys want me to run, but I'm honestly not interested." After democrats begged her some more it was "Okay, I'll consider it....". Then, a few months later, it was "Well, I'm sort of interested, but I'm going to be a grandmother soon and that might cause me to become completely uninterested, so don't count on anything." During the height of the 2014 election season, she effectively dodged the question, but never seemed like she was annoyed by it being asked. Then in January of this year or so, she began staffing up, but seemed unsure of when to announce. Now she's (apparently) going to actually enter.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Joe Scarborough rules out running for president in 2016:

http://www.breitbart.com/video/2015/04/03/scarborough-rules-out-2016-presidential-bid-hints-at-2018-senate-run/

Wow. This is a gamechanger.

And it's not like he'd be some great candidate to take on Bill Nelson either.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Even Clinton knows that a tough primary would be a good thing for her after being off the campaign trail since 2008:

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[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hillary to announce Saturday or Sunday.

meh, 2.3% chance of her not running.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Podesta says "She's In."

And by "she" presumably he means Elizabeth Warren.

EDIT: Damn, that was quick. Beaten to the punch!

Go Chafee Go!!!!!!!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Sanders now says he'll announce his 2016 intentions by the end of this month:

http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/local/2015/04/12/spokesman-sanders-run-choice-april/25684129/

No guarantee he'll make a decision by then, considering he previously said end of march only to say he needed more time.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The effort to draft Warren continues. The article also mentions that emily's list has endorsed Hillary:
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/elizabeth-warren-fans-undeterred-by-clinton-announcement/

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

50 50 or a slight break his WAYYYYYY  is better than when Obama got what 70-80% of their vote? If Rubio can take 50% give or take of their vote (I think he does better, but for argument sake), he wins Florida and he will do better with Hispanics than any other candidate for so many reasons. Also, after Romney lost all the talk was about how poorly he did with Hispanics and if we can't begin to win more of that vote we have no chance. Wonder who that candidate is that could do better in that area?

Also in 2012 who did Republicans decide on; Romney, why? Because they thought he could win a general election, not a tea party nut job who would get smoked.

HMMM 2008 who was elected? Mcain, Why? Because he gave us the best shot to win a general election.

Guess what? Once republicans sit down and say heck we've been out of the whit e house 8 years?!?!? Who would be the best matchup against Hilary??? We will see who they think has the qualities to beat her in a general...

Romney and McCain both faced significant opposition in the primaries, and indeed, both could have easily been defeated (and almost were). And Rubio can win Florida, I don't doubt that. But will he win OH and VA? And will he win WI, NH, or CO, which are the extra states needed to have a pathway to victory? I highly doubt that. Not this time around at least. 2020 or 2024 is a different story.

When the Republican bigwigs sit down and pick the strongest candidate, they will pick the next in line, like they literally always have. And that next in line, like him or not, is Jeb Bush.

While i Agree with a lot of what you said, I disagree this time. Most times would it be Jeb 100% but i think Republicans are ready for a change with the next in line. Also, Romney's guy is Rubio right now and will help him for all the reasons i posted above beat Jeb in a primary. Will he come straight out and say it yet? No and were not eve close to that moment.

Rubio can win Florida and if he picks Kasich as his VP he will have a legit chance in Ohio.

Colorado and Nevada are two states he would do great in. There is a path to 270 electoral votes for a Rubio/Kasich ticket.

No jeb Bush will not win if hes the nominee.

Nevada is close to unwinnable for the republicans. They have a much better chance in PA and WI.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Because i listed the reasons why he has the best shot to win 270 electoral votes? I would love to see a path for any of the other nominees to win 270 votes required to win...

Bring up a map and lets see a path for paul, cruz, bush (Best shot) or walker

I don't think any of them has a particularly good path to 270.

Walker needs to win all of the blue states on the map plus 1 of the 3 green states:

Here's the map for Bush. He needs all of the blue states on the map below, plus one of these three combinations:

1. PA
2. Both OH and VA
3. Both WI and OH
4. Both WI and VA

Of course, if republicans can put Nevada, Michigan, and/or Minnesota in play, it gets (a little) easier.  But I don't see them doing so at this point in time. New Hampshire is only 4 electoral votes and so isn't really all that worth going for, so I didn't bother factoring it into these calculations.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The last thing Ben Carson needs is to be filmed every day. He's so hilariously inane when talking about politics I sincerely doubt even FOX could keep him on air.

As long as you don't make Dick Morris style predictions, FOX doesn't really care whether you're telling the truth or not. Huckabee probably spewed falsehoods on his show all the time.