The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2)

[Likely Voter]

Tonight Huckabee was on THE DAILY SHOW and regarding the possibility of running he said it was  "very likely, very possible"

[Likely Voter]

but will Sanders run as a Dem or an Indie. Obviously Hillary is hoping for the former.

[Likely Voter]

Bernie Sanders is uncertain about whether Bernie Sanders can mount a serious campaign:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-03-09/can-bernie-sanders-make-a-serious-run-for-president-bernie-sanders-isn-t-sure-

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$300M to take on Kochs? You don't need that to run in a Dem primary. He sounds like he is talking about what it would take for an indie run for the general.

[Likely Voter]

if the GOP wants a woman on that debate stage, can't they talk one of their governors or senators into it? I think there are around 10 or so, surely one of them wants a higher profile?

[Likely Voter]

they would run for the same reason that someone like Lindsay Graham is running, to raise their profile and hopes to get into the cabinet.

[Likely Voter]

they would run for the same reason that someone like Lindsay Graham is running, to raise their profile and hopes to get into the cabinet.

But what does that have to do with being "talked into it", by the party leadership?  What is the party leadership going to say to them to convince them?  Also, I think you're overestimating the extent to which the party leadership cares about this sort of thing.  Big $ donors care more about who runs than Priebus does, I think.  And I don't think big $ donors care that much about whether they candidates they back are men or women.

you are taking my comment too seriously. My point was along the lines of 'cant the GOP come up with anyone better than Carly Fiorina' I am fully aware of the limitations of the Preibus.

[Likely Voter]

Kasich should get in while the 'Jeb is in trouble' iron is hot. Also the later he waits, the more he risks not even making the cut for the debates.

Graham has the same debate cutoff problem. I guess tonight he announced that tomorrow he will announce his future announcement date.

[Likely Voter]

the whole religious freedom flap in IN seems to have vaporized all the low level buzz for Pence. I wonder if - when he signed that bill - he thought he was actually giving his Presidential chances a boost, hoping he would be rewarded by the religious right.

[Likely Voter]

So it looks like we have

6 announced
Cruz
Carson
Fiorina
Rubio
Huckabee
Paul

4 announced they will announce
Graham
Pataki
Perry
Santorum

2 certain to announce
Bush
Walker

3 almost certain to announce
Christie
Jindal
Kasich

That gets you to 15

Then there are still 4 maybes
Trump
Erlich
Gilmore
King

[Likely Voter]

At the beginning of the year Christie was polling around 11-12% both nationally and in NH (down from his post 2013 election highs but still respectable), now he is in the 4-5% range and is in risk of not even making the cut for the first debate. His trips to NH and appearances on FOX are not working. I doubt a big announcement would give him a bump as he already has very high name recognition. I think he isn't going to run because his ego wants to avoid embarrassment.

Of course he may truly be self-delusional enough to believe he can still win.

[Likely Voter]

Is it just me that is bugged when candidates use "we" instead of "I".   I know the we refers to the campaign, but it just feels like the 'royal "we"'

[Likely Voter]

So is it right to say that on the GOP side the only 2 (polled) candidates that haven't announced or set a date are Christie and Kasich?

[Likely Voter]

Announcement Schedule:

Gilmore: He plans to participate in the Fox 'Forum' in August, so presumably early to mid july so pollsters start including him in time

Actually Gilmore has indicated he will attend the competing NH Union Leader Forum on the same day
http://www.concordmonitor.com/photos/17386162-95/at-bike-week-gilmore-critiques-fox-debate-format

So far I think he is the only one. He probably wouldn't pass the 1% threshold FOX has to get into the Forum.

[Likely Voter]

Well based on the poll cutoff date there will be two weeks of polling after Kasich's announcement. Usually that would not be enough time for 5 polls, however I think his team are betting that the big polling outfits will cram their polls in that period because they will all want to be part of the 'last 5.' It is a calculated risk to maximize his bounce to get in. I think it might actually work but it is cutting it very close. He should at least be in 3 out of 5 polls.

Also I suspect he will go out of his way to try to get in the news during July, possibly announcing new initiatives in Ohio and/or doing lots of FOX interviews.  I would be that FOX will want to see him on that stage, the debate is held in his state FFS.

[Likely Voter]

I think it is fair to say that the next president of the United States has announced (or has a pending announcement). The few stragglers remaining on the GOP side will never see a debate stage and will likely drop out before IA (if they ever get in). As for Webb, he could possibly get into some debates but not sure where he fits in to 2016's Democratic party. He and Chafee can fight over the handful of Dems primary voters who think Hillary is too much of a liberal.

[Likely Voter]

Somehow I thought she had already endorsed Hillary. Hopefully she'll endorse Sanders.

I think Warren wont endorse anyone. Her heart may be with Bernie but her head knows that Hillary is the most likely nominee and potential President. Which means she doesn't want to get on Hillary's bad side when it comes to speaking at the DNC and (more importantly) working with the future Clinton admin on her agenda in the Senate.

[Likely Voter]

I think team Biden wants him to come in as a savior, which means they need to come in after a complete collapse of establishment support for Hillary. They want it to be something like when the GOP establishment panicked over Romney and tried to get Christie in the race four years ago.  The problem is that the Dem establishment may be nervous about Hillary but they arent yet in a full panic. So Biden is waiting for his moment, but that moment may never come. And as pointed out by First Read today, the longer they wait the harder it becomes due to the huge amount of money required to campaign as vice president (the campaign has to pay for Air Force Two to fly around for example).

[Likely Voter]

The rules changed regarding incumbent campaign travel

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http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/22/us/politics/presidential-vs-political-trips-a-blurry-line-for-obama.html

One of the reasons today NBC First Read noted:

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http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read-what-has-changed-heading-second-gop-debate-n426856

[Likely Voter]

Biden so wants to be the back up QB and he is desperate for the coach (party elites) to call him in, but Hillary may be injured yet she doesn't seem ready to get off the field. So Biden will wait until she is carried off but that may never happen