Predict the tipping point senate race

[Xing]

Which senate race will be the tipping point one in 2016? My money's on NH, though FL and PA are also possible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IL will be tipping point; because if a moderate like Kirk loses, then control of the senate is at stake.

[ElectionsGuy]

1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. Pennsylvania
4. Florida - Democratic Presidential Win
5. New Hampshire - Republican Presidential Win
6. Ohio
7. North Carolina

[IceSpear]

1) WI
2) IL
3) FL
4) PA
5) OH
6) NH
7) CO
NV
9) NC
10) MO
11) IN
12) AZ

Due to Democratic infighting in PA and the willingness of the national/state Dem establishment to cut off their nose to spite their face over a pathetic vendetta, I'm feeling less optimistic about Dem chances there. So I'm moving FL up to #3, making PA the tipping point. If Toomey's vote  ends up deciding Senate control, we can all thank the pettiness of the Dem establishment.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

1. WI
2. IL
3. PA
4. FL
5. NH
6. NV
7. CO
8. OH
9. NC
10. MO
11. AZ
12. IN

[The Other Castro]

(Assuming a Democratic President) Democratic gains in order of likelihood:

1. WI
2. IL
3. FL
4. PA --> tipping point
5. OH
6. NH (for now)
-----------Around where I think it'll end up, give or take 2 seats.
7. NC
8. AZ
10. MO
11. IN
12. AK (without Begich)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

1.) IL
2.)WI
3.)NV
4.)Pa tipping point
5.)CO
6.)NH tipping point give Hilary the presidency
7.) OH or FL

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Two in this thread have included Nevada on their lists yet still listed the tipping point at state 4 unless I'm missing something...

1. WI
2. IL
3. FL
4. CO
5. NV
6. PA --> D 50, R, 50
7. NH --> D51, R 49 for Republican President
8. NC
9. OH
10. IN

I think it's stopping at CO though, possibly NV. GOP will still have 51.

[Skye]

I'd rather wait until we have polling numbers for all races.

[pbrower2a]

I'd rather wait until we have polling numbers for all races.

We get Arizona (PPP) this week.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

268 which has CO, NV , IL and WI plus Pa, and crossing 270 with OH or NH; Pa with Pat Toomey is the tipping pt race.

OH senate is my 2nd one.

[pbrower2a]

I'd rather wait until we have polling numbers for all races.

We get Arizona (PPP) this week.

PPP,  Senator John McCain

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
McCain’s job performance?

 41% Approve --  50% Disapprove -- 9% Not sure

http://www.mozilla.com/en-US/firefox/central/

Slipping.

He doesn't get out of the low 40s for any of the prospective Democratic challengers in the general election.  He would need a Republican wave to win re-election. Any erratic behavior would make him a sitting duck in either the primary or the general election. I think we can see Arizona as a possible pickup for a Democrat in 2016, especially if 2016 should be a wave election.

[Mr.Phips]

I'd think either FL or NH.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jeb Bush may be on ballot in FL; and we know FL too well. Ayotte is leading in NH.

[Nyvin]

PA or FL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pa; CO, and NH.