NY-11 Special Election Thread
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #50 on: January 03, 2015, 06:04:57 PM »

It's Lean R to start, but Donovan isn't unbeatable. A Democrat like Debi Rose, Kenneth Mitchell (Both of whom represent/ed the North Shore of Staten Island in the New York City Council), Michael Nelson (Who Represented Midwood, Sheepshead Bay and Brighton Beach in the New York City Council), Matthew Titone and Michael Cusick (both of whom represent Staten Island in the State Assembly) could win, with some luck (and De Blasio staying away)

I just can't help but wonder if Republicans would be better off running Susan Molinari now, and Donovan in 2016, should Molinari lose.

Debi Rose would get demolished against Donovan. Donovan's presence in the race will be enough to drive black and Hispanic voter turnout on the North Shore up for a special election, but Rose would lose so badly among white swing voters as to be rendered unelectable districtwide.

Matt Titone is too far to the left, and while having a gay Democrat for a Congressman would give me some pride I don't think he is electable districtwide.

Both are from the North Shore and are only electable on the North Shore.

And nobody from Brooklyn should ever be nominated for NY-11 if the Democrats want to win.

The only Democrats who can feasibly win are Assemblyman Michael Cusick and former Congressman Michael McMahon. McMahon has been out of office for four years after serving only one two-year term in Congress, and his legacy was voting against ObamaCare and still losing in the 2010 Republican wave.

Mike Cusick is the strongest Democratic candidate and he will be the Democratic nominee for this seat. His assembly district (63) is the mid-Island "swing district" of Staten Island in between the Democratic North Shore and Republican South Shore, stretching from a tiny part of the North Shore where he gets 98% to the South Shore border where he basically breaks even. In between are all white middle-class swing voters, as well as Staten Island's swing Jewish population. In all the past congressional races, as AD63 goes, so goes Staten Island.

Cusick received the Conservative Party convention's nomination in all 7 of his Assembly races but lost the Conservative ballot line in 2014 as a result of a write-in campaign for his opponent Republican Joe Tirone in the party's ultra-low-turnout primary. Running against a well-known family name on Staten Island with a well-funded and organized campaign who had swiped the Conservative ballot line from him and in the midst of a Republican wave which included Grimm beating Recchia 55-42....Cusick still won 58-42 in white middle-class AD63. Recchia ran almost 20 points behind Cusick in AD63.

If Donovan is the nominee, black and Hispanic turnout should be higher than would ever be expected in a special election, and Cusick, a conservative Democrat, can probably hold the margin of defeat among whites to a small enough percentage to pull off a win. This is assuming Donovan is as invincibly popular as Republicans tout him as, pointing out his 70% of the vote in his last election while ignoring the fact that he hasn't run in an actual competitive race in years. There are many white voters who are dissatisfied with the way Donovan (mis)handled the Garner situation too.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #51 on: January 04, 2015, 05:15:44 PM »

So as Grimm isn't being sworn in, if Dems win the seat (as they've had a recent habit of doing in NY special elections), could it be said that the Republicans never "really" got to their historic 247 seat total?
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #52 on: January 05, 2015, 11:17:52 AM »
« Edited: January 05, 2015, 11:19:27 AM by Senator Libertas »

Ugh stupid Dems might cede this race, if Chuck Schumer is listened to. Schumer says any candidate who runs against Donovan will be turned into the "anti-police" candidate and chopped into mincemeat since those white and Jewish swing voters who regularly vote for moderate Democrats will turn to the GOP once they get mailers putting Cusick's face in between Al Sharpton and Bill de Blasio, neither of whom are popular among Staten Island white voters, even those who take issue with how the Garner situation was (mis)handled. This despite the fact that Cusick is a conservative Democrat with zero connections to Sharpton or de Blasio during his 7 terms in the NYS Assembly. But the Republican machine runs on lies and distortions, so the facts won't get in the way of a smear campaign.

So Chuck Schumer says to basically throw this race away and just hand the seat to Dan Donovan, who attracted international attention for his failure to secure an indictment against an NYPD officer guilty of homicide against a black man. I really hope Schumer's advice is ignored.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #53 on: January 06, 2015, 06:01:27 PM »

There is much doom and gloom on the Democratic side now. Whereas the GOP establishment had abandoned the indicted thug Grimm during his campaign, the Republithugs are pulling out all the stops to win this race. Guy Molinari (former Republican Borough President of Staten Island and Godfather-like figure in the SI GOP), who once held this congressional seat before handing it over to his corrupt daughter Susan Molinari and her actual mafia husband Vito, before giving us Vito Fossella, later caught in a DWI which further revealed he was having an extramarital affair and had a second family in Virginia, before giving us Michael Grimm.... and now Dan Donovan is the new Guy Molinari pick for NY-11.

Although Dan Donovan hasn't actually announced that he is running, apparently former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Governor George Pataki have already created a PAC for him and plan to campaign vigorously for him. Does the GOP really feel threatened that this seat is in jeopardy for them and/or are they just trying to flex their muscles to scare away potential serious challengers? Their plan is clearly to tie any Democratic opponent to de Blasio and Sharpton and make them out to be "anti-NYPD". Even a conservative Democratic assemblyman who has spent seven terms in the state assembly having nothing to do with city politics and having no connections to de Blasio and Sharpton. Cusick easily has the best change of winning the seat for the Democrats, but it would be hell of a struggle against the Nixonesque Molinari machine.

On the bright side, Dan Donovan and former Conservative Borough President Jim Molinaro hate each other. However Molinaro wields basically no influence despite his delusions of grandeur as Chairman of the Conservative Party and having been the city's highest Conservative officeholder. As I might have mentioned, last year after the local Conservative Party convention chose to nominate Democratic Assemblyman Cusick to appear on their ballot line for the 7th time, his opponent Joe Tirone launched a write-in primary campaign to swipe the ballot line from "tax and spend liberal" Cusick, and despite Molinaro writing letters to every Conservative on Staten Island to support Cusick and getting media attention for it, Cusick lost in the ultra-low-turnout  (~100 people) Conservative Party primary. So Molinaro is unlikely to be of much help.

Like cowards the stupid DCCC is trying to draft Cusick to run in 2016 rather than focus entirely on winning this special election, ignoring the fact that incumbent Donovan would be even harder to defeat even in a presidential election year than he would be right now. Incumbent Republicans easily get elected in NY-11 even if it is a presidential election year with a Democratic wave.

The Dems totally screwed up the easily winnable 2014 race against the Grimminal by nominating Wreckia and running a poor campaign, looks like they might be throwing in the towel again for this special election cause if the awful Donovan is elected to Congress it's his seat for life until he either resigns or gets caught in a scandal (as Guy Molinari's anointed congresscritters tend to do.) The Democratic Party is such a mess.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #54 on: January 09, 2015, 01:00:35 AM »

http://www.silive.com/opinion/strictly-political/2015/01/with_support_in_brooklyn_nicol.html#incart_river

The Brooklyn GOP and Conservative Parties are fully behind Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis for the seat, since her Assembly district includes parts of Brooklyn along with Staten Island's East Shore.

Unfortunately for Nicole (and for the Democrats), Staten Island leaders will wield much more influence in deciding who the congressional nominee will be and they want Donovan, with even Giuliani and Pataki backing him.

But Chuck Schumer is being ridiculous when he says to basically concede this race if Dan Donovan is the Republican nominee. The sad thing about it though would be it would be a contest to prove who is more pro-police since the vile GOP machine backing Donovan is planning on running on a Democrats = NYPD haters platform.

I really hope the Brooklyn GOP wins this battle and Dan Donovan is consigned to remaining a corrupt inept DA rather than a member of Congress.

Nicole would be easily dispatched by Cusick, and we wouldn't need to see the Democratic candidate pathetically beg on his hands and knees for police to support him.

And I really hope the scam that the SI GOP pulled on NY-11 voters by nominating a lying crook (and now convicted felon) is not forgotten when this special is held (if it ever is, considering Andrew Cuomo's cheapness and refusal to hold special elections, leaving people without representation).
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #55 on: January 10, 2015, 09:22:47 PM »
« Edited: January 10, 2015, 09:31:40 PM by Vapaus! »

It's official. The awful Dan Donovan, of international infamy vis-à-vis the Eric Garner homicide, will be the Republican candidate for Congress in New York's 11th Congressional district.

http://www.silive.com/news/index.ssf/2015/01/district_attorney_daniel_donov_6.html#incart_m-rpt-1

Democrats need to get their sh**t together quickly to keep this POS out of Congress.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #56 on: January 10, 2015, 09:34:45 PM »

Sabato lists the race as Likely Republican
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #57 on: January 10, 2015, 09:54:42 PM »

Sabato lists the race as Likely Republican

Well right now there is no Democratic candidate so it might as well be safe Republican.

Idiot Chuck Schumer needs to shut up and be ignored and Staten Island Democratic Party Chair John Gulino needs to announce Mike Cusick as the nominee.

The race will still lean GOP, but Donovan is not unbeatable against Cusick.

McMahon would be a 2nd best, but not as formidable as Cusick.

Anyone else would be conceding the seat, which Schumer and the DCCC seem to want to do. Stupid party.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #58 on: January 11, 2015, 08:04:04 PM »

I thin the Republican takes it by at least a good 7 points, maybe slightly more. I can't imagine turnout will be very high at all.

It depends a lot on whether the now-internationally infamous Donovan manages to draw a lot more attention to the race and drive out a lot more black and Hispanic turnout than would ever be expected in a special election.

It would be political suicide for the white Democratic candidate to appear alongside Al Sharpton at a rally to try to drive up black and Hispanic turnout against Donovan in this district; however if Sharpton sticks to just making a big issue of attacking Donovan and reminding Staten Island minority voters Donovan is responsible for Eric Garner's killer walking free, while remaining silent on the Democratic candidate, the race can be made competitive. With high black and Hispanic turnout combined with keeping the margin of loss among whites as small as possible (nominating a white conservative Democrat like Cusick), the Democrat can eke out a narrow victory just like Barack Obama narrowly won Staten Island in 2012.
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Türkisblau
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« Reply #59 on: January 11, 2015, 08:54:47 PM »

I thin the Republican takes it by at least a good 7 points, maybe slightly more. I can't imagine turnout will be very high at all.

It depends a lot on whether the now-internationally infamous Donovan manages to draw a lot more attention to the race and drive out a lot more black and Hispanic turnout than would ever be expected in a special election.

It would be political suicide for the white Democratic candidate to appear alongside Al Sharpton at a rally to try to drive up black and Hispanic turnout against Donovan in this district; however if Sharpton sticks to just making a big issue of attacking Donovan and reminding Staten Island minority voters Donovan is responsible for Eric Garner's killer walking free, while remaining silent on the Democratic candidate, the race can be made competitive. With high black and Hispanic turnout combined with keeping the margin of loss among whites as small as possible (nominating a white conservative Democrat like Cusick), the Democrat can eke out a narrow victory just like Barack Obama narrowly won Staten Island in 2012.

Wait, complexity and varying factors!?

But muh turnout!
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #60 on: January 12, 2015, 03:29:52 AM »
« Edited: January 12, 2015, 04:07:01 AM by Vapaus! »

I thin the Republican takes it by at least a good 7 points, maybe slightly more. I can't imagine turnout will be very high at all.

It depends a lot on whether the now-internationally infamous Donovan manages to draw a lot more attention to the race and drive out a lot more black and Hispanic turnout than would ever be expected in a special election.

It would be political suicide for the white Democratic candidate to appear alongside Al Sharpton at a rally to try to drive up black and Hispanic turnout against Donovan in this district; however if Sharpton sticks to just making a big issue of attacking Donovan and reminding Staten Island minority voters Donovan is responsible for Eric Garner's killer walking free, while remaining silent on the Democratic candidate, the race can be made competitive. With high black and Hispanic turnout combined with keeping the margin of loss among whites as small as possible (nominating a white conservative Democrat like Cusick), the Democrat can eke out a narrow victory just like Barack Obama narrowly won Staten Island in 2012.
He won with presidential turnout, along with the after effects of Hurricane Sandy, which in New York at the least brought him up a couple points. He most likely would have lost in Staten Island without it IMO, or at least it would have been a virtual tie.

The Republican is winning this race.

Your simpleton analysis is simply stunning to behold. Roll Eyes

Not all elections are the same.

Al Sharpton got thousands of people marching in the streets of Staten Island over the Garner verdict. That includes lots of black and Hispanic and young voters who probably don't typically vote in mid-terms/special elections or usually get engaged in activism at all. And he has basically pledged to hold more rallies now that Dan Donovan is the Republican congressional candidate, serving as a constant reminder to every black and Hispanic voter on Staten Island that there's a Congressional election going on and that the man responsible for Eric Garner's killer walking free is on the ballot.

Donovan's selection as congressional candidate will backfire on GOP, Sharpton says

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Meanwhile Assemblyman Mike Cusick is an immensely popular white conservative Democrat who routinely gets re-elected by landslide margins in Staten Island's mid-Island "swing district", AD63. In 2012, Michael Grimm won AD63 by 6 points, virtually the same margin by which he won the election overall, while Cusick won the district 66-33. Cusick is far more popular and will fare far better among white voters than Barack Obama, who managed to win Staten Island with minority turnout surge alone despite being unpopular among white voters. If Cusick just runs on his own record and personal popularity among swing white voters and avoids association with Sharpton/de Blasio, while they do their own thing driving up turnout on the heavily Democratic North Shore, it's hardly an impossibility for Cusick to defeat Donovan, who hasn't faced a serious competitor in years.

Cusick can point to a long list of legislative achievements and other programs that have helped Staten Islanders, from negotiating a bridge toll discount for Staten Island residents, to passing the I-STOP law to confront the prescription drug epidemic that is a major issue on Staten Island, to property tax cuts for veterans along with a veterans' discount program run by his office. Donovan can't really point to anything in particular he's done to make life better for Staten Islanders; the only thing he is known for after all his years as a DA is the way he (mis)handled the Garner case.

The DCCC is to blame for why we are in this situation in the first place, because national pundits and 'strategists' don't have a clue about the particulars of the district. Nominating an unknown Brooklynite moron like Wreckia and then making tactical blunder after blunder during the campaign is why Grimm was able to win last year.

But I don't know why I am wasting time trying to explain facts on the ground with someone who can't contribute anything more than "The Republican is winning this race."
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Türkisblau
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« Reply #61 on: January 12, 2015, 09:05:28 AM »

I thin the Republican takes it by at least a good 7 points, maybe slightly more. I can't imagine turnout will be very high at all.

It depends a lot on whether the now-internationally infamous Donovan manages to draw a lot more attention to the race and drive out a lot more black and Hispanic turnout than would ever be expected in a special election.

It would be political suicide for the white Democratic candidate to appear alongside Al Sharpton at a rally to try to drive up black and Hispanic turnout against Donovan in this district; however if Sharpton sticks to just making a big issue of attacking Donovan and reminding Staten Island minority voters Donovan is responsible for Eric Garner's killer walking free, while remaining silent on the Democratic candidate, the race can be made competitive. With high black and Hispanic turnout combined with keeping the margin of loss among whites as small as possible (nominating a white conservative Democrat like Cusick), the Democrat can eke out a narrow victory just like Barack Obama narrowly won Staten Island in 2012.

Wait, complexity and varying factors!?

But muh turnout!
LOL. Don't get mad when turnout is 30 percent and the Rebugs win by 7 percentage points.

Don't get mad when people call you out for adding nothing to the discussion.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #62 on: January 12, 2015, 09:31:03 AM »

I'm completely fine with losing this special if it means getting Malliotakis in there in 2016.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #63 on: January 12, 2015, 09:45:28 AM »

I'm completely fine with losing this special if it means getting Malliotakis in there in 2016.

May i ask - why are you rooting for her? She seems to be a very conservative (at least - by NY standards) legislator, while you (looking at your Political Matrix scores) are not especially conservative.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #64 on: January 12, 2015, 09:53:35 AM »

I'm completely fine with losing this special if it means getting Malliotakis in there in 2016.

May i ask - why are you rooting for her? She seems to be a very conservative (at least - by NY standards) legislator, while you (looking at your Political Matrix scores) are not especially conservative.
Because Donovan seems terrible and I'm supportive of increasing the diversity of the party - it would be great to have two young Republicans representing New York in Congress. Hopefully we will also start seeing an increase in ideological diversity too. Smiley
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #65 on: January 12, 2015, 09:58:34 AM »

I'm completely fine with losing this special if it means getting Malliotakis in there in 2016.

May i ask - why are you rooting for her? She seems to be a very conservative (at least - by NY standards) legislator, while you (looking at your Political Matrix scores) are not especially conservative.
Because Donovan seems terrible and I'm supportive of increasing the diversity of the party - it would be great to have two young Republicans representing New York in Congress. Hopefully we will also start seeing an increase in ideological diversity too. Smiley

Absolutely for that (in BOTH parties). But she will not bring ideological diversity...
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #66 on: January 12, 2015, 07:31:26 PM »

I'm completely fine with losing this special if it means getting Malliotakis in there in 2016.

Whoever wins the special will probably be re-elected in 2016, assuming Cusick will be the Democratic nominee. Malliotakis would be the weakest candidate had she been chosen to run in this open seat special election (which is she wasn't chosen), she'd be even weaker running against a Democratic incumbent in a presidential election year, especially if Clinton is the 2016 nominee. The Clintons are popular on Staten Island, Hillary beat Obama here 61.2% to 35.5%. In 1996, Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole on Staten Island by 10 points, the first Democratic victory on Staten Island since 1964 (and actually a bigger victory than LBJ's surprisingly narrow 54-45 win over Goldwater on Staten Island in 1964), and Clinton's popularity even carried over to 2000 when Al Gore won Staten Island 52-45.

SI prob would have continued to trend D had it not been for the 9/11 effect that gave Bush and McCain strong bounces here.

But if Barack Obama was able to win Staten Island in 2012, I think Hillary easily wins Staten Island in 2016, and a Dem incumbent congressional candidate would easily be re-elected.

So if the GOP wins, add another old white guy to their ranks, one whose most notable case involved allowing a cop who chokeholded a black man to death while he shouted " I can't breathe" to walk free, attracting national and even international attention....Donovan is pretty much as bad as it gets if the GOP had any hopes of reaching out to black and Hispanic voters rather than being the party of balding old white men.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #67 on: January 12, 2015, 07:45:11 PM »

Donovan wins 50-49... or something in that range... While the race certainly will be closer thanks to events like the Garner choking, I'm not sold on enough protesters voting for a candidate as conservative as Cusick to put him over the top.  I would expect the Working Families Party to run someone else, and that to be the difference here.
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« Reply #68 on: January 12, 2015, 07:54:05 PM »
« Edited: January 12, 2015, 07:56:28 PM by Vapaus! »

Donovan wins 50-49... or something in that range... While the race certainly will be closer thanks to events like the Garner choking, I'm not sold on enough protesters voting for a candidate as conservative as Cusick to put him over the top.  I would expect the Working Families Party to run someone else, and that to be the difference here.

Why would the WFP run someone else?

Cusick has run with the WFP ballot line in past Assembly elections but despite being offered it has turned it down because he thought it would hurt more than help in a mostly white moderately conservative swing district.

Also it highlights the utter absurdity of New York State's "me too" parties that tag along with the state's fusion voting if the Conservative Party and WFP both nominated the same candidate- which they have done by both nominating Cusick in his early races.

Cusick is fairly liberal on economic "working families" issues like raising the minimum wage even though he's also generally against raising taxes. It's social issues from drug policy to abortion to the death penalty to "law and order" that make Cusick conservative.

If Cusick turns down the WFP ballot line (which I personally doubt he will do in an Islandwide race), the WFP will just sit the race out like they have done in his Assembly races.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #69 on: January 12, 2015, 07:55:58 PM »

Donovan wins 50-49... or something in that range... While the race certainly will be closer thanks to events like the Garner choking, I'm not sold on enough protesters voting for a candidate as conservative as Cusick to put him over the top.  I would expect the Working Families Party to run someone else, and that to be the difference here.

Why would the WFP run someone else?

Cusick has run with the WFP ballot line in past Assembly elections but despite being offered it has turned it down because he thought it would hurt more than help in a mostly white moderately conservative swing district.

Also it highlights the utter absurdity of New York State's "me too" parties that tag along with the state's fusion voting if the Conservative Party and WFP both nominated the same candidate- which they have done by both nominating Cusick in his early races.

If Cusick turns down the WFP ballot line (which I personally doubt he will do in an Islandwide race), the WFP will just sit the race out like they have done in his Assembly races.

Arguably, pressure from protesters.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #70 on: January 12, 2015, 08:03:46 PM »

Donovan wins 50-49... or something in that range... While the race certainly will be closer thanks to events like the Garner choking, I'm not sold on enough protesters voting for a candidate as conservative as Cusick to put him over the top.  I would expect the Working Families Party to run someone else, and that to be the difference here.

Why would the WFP run someone else?

Cusick has run with the WFP ballot line in past Assembly elections but despite being offered it has turned it down because he thought it would hurt more than help in a mostly white moderately conservative swing district.

Also it highlights the utter absurdity of New York State's "me too" parties that tag along with the state's fusion voting if the Conservative Party and WFP both nominated the same candidate- which they have done by both nominating Cusick in his early races.

If Cusick turns down the WFP ballot line (which I personally doubt he will do in an Islandwide race), the WFP will just sit the race out like they have done in his Assembly races.

Arguably, pressure from protesters.

The Garner protestors? I think they are pretty much entirely focused on defeating Donovan, not on the ideological purity of the Democrat who challenges him and the WFP's ballot line is Cusick's if he wants it.

This is Staten Island, not New York State. NYS could have easily elected someone far to the left of Cuomo- and far more in line with the whole WFP platform. Staten Island would be extremely unlikely to elect someone who was fully in line with the WFP platform and they know Cusick is the most 'liberal' candidate who could possibly win this race.
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« Reply #71 on: January 17, 2015, 04:02:59 PM »

Staten Island Democrats continue to have their heads up their asses, refuse to take advantage of an issue that causes turnout to rise.

Jesus Christ, these people are incompetent.
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« Reply #72 on: January 17, 2015, 04:10:24 PM »

Staten Island Democrats continue to have their heads up their asses, refuse to take advantage of an issue that causes turnout to rise.

Jesus Christ, these people are incompetent.

Because doing their best to avoid any sort of controversial issue worked out so well in 2014...
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« Reply #73 on: January 17, 2015, 04:52:20 PM »

Staten Island Democrats continue to have their heads up their asses, refuse to take advantage of an issue that causes turnout to rise.

Jesus Christ, these people are incompetent.

Because doing their best to avoid any sort of controversial issue worked out so well in 2014...

Especially when it's key to their only chance of winning this race. Looks like looking to Brooklyn for a candidate is the least of their problems.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #74 on: January 17, 2015, 06:34:05 PM »

Staten Island Democrats continue to have their heads up their asses, refuse to take advantage of an issue that causes turnout to rise.

Jesus Christ, these people are incompetent.

Because doing their best to avoid any sort of controversial issue worked out so well in 2014...
Remember Staten Island approves of the Garner decision so running on that, even with the Sharpton mob, would be a losing strategy
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